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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2019 8:03:22 GMT
Technically this is true. Pedro Sanchez was leader but resigned as he would never support abstain to allow PP to govern he then retook the reigns and since PP lost the vote of confidence their support has tanked
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 19, 2019 8:24:31 GMT
They also moved significantly to the left in doing so, you strangely omitted to mention that bit  Could things have been different I wonder if they had chosen their own equivalent of Liz Kendall (ie Susana Diaz) The recent result in Andalucia suggests - quite possibly. Well it depends which bit you are talking about, but the current leader technically replaced himself so it made no difference at all. And Diaz supported Sanchez in his original leadership bid.
The argument in the party was really about tactics rather than policy, and the suggestion that the PSOE was another failing Social Democratic party with Podemos poised to take over seems to have dissipated a wee bit now.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2019 9:44:12 GMT
the suggestion that the PSOE was another failing Social Democratic party with Podemos poised to take over seems to have dissipated a wee bit now. Well yes, but that is also partly down to how Podemos has faltered - which was how I started this conversation I think! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2019 9:47:26 GMT
They also moved significantly to the left in doing so, you strangely omitted to mention that bit Could things have been different I wonder if they had chosen their own equivalent of Liz Kendall (ie Susana Diaz) The recent result in Andalucia suggests - quite possibly. Well it depends which bit you are talking about, but the current leader technically replaced himself so it made no difference at all. And Diaz supported Sanchez in his original leadership bid.
The argument in the party was really about tactics rather than policy, and the suggestion that the PSOE was another failing Social Democratic party with Podemos poised to take over seems to have dissipated a wee bit now.
yes Sanchez step down for a short period. Mainly because PSOE responded to Podemos with the left platform and as Bishop says Podemos infighting, splits, etc. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 19, 2019 11:44:26 GMT
How the regions&provinces have been trending Right-Left:     Don't rely too much on these numbers, please: I didn't take the small parties (national®ional) into account, also not UPyD (left?, right?) and the Navarrese nationalists (left [EhBildu]?, right [PNV]?) aso. Tsk tsk. Calling the provinces of Asturias and Cantabria, Oviedo and Santander respectively would get you into trouble if you were on the north coast! Or LaRioja vs. Logrono. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 19, 2019 17:44:08 GMT
the suggestion that the PSOE was another failing Social Democratic party with Podemos poised to take over seems to have dissipated a wee bit now. Well yes, but that is also partly down to how Podemos has faltered - which was how I started this conversation I think! More than faltered, brought down by infighting and their own hypocrisy. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 20, 2019 0:25:58 GMT
How the regions&provinces have been trending Right-Left: Don't rely too much on these numbers, please: I didn't take the small parties (national®ional) into account, also not UPyD (left?, right?) and the Navarrese nationalists (left [EhBildu]?, right [PNV]?) aso. Tsk tsk. Calling the provinces of Asturias and Cantabria, Oviedo and Santander respectively would get you into trouble if you were on the north coast! Upthread I referred to Navarre as "the Pamplona constituency" and nobody objected (although that's not on the coast).  Most of the election talk in the Spanish media this week has been about next week's TV debates rather than about issues of substance and policy. From a psephological standpoint, there have been interesting articles on the website of the state broadcaster here and here for those with the language. |
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Post by WJ on Apr 20, 2019 16:42:39 GMT
Tsk tsk. Calling the provinces of Asturias and Cantabria, Oviedo and Santander respectively would get you into trouble if you were on the north coast! Upthread I referred to Navarre as "the Pamplona constituency" and nobody objected (although that's not on the coast). Most of the election talk in the Spanish media this week has been about next week's TV debates rather than about issues of substance and policy. From a psephological standpoint, there have been interesting articles on the website of the state broadcaster here and here for those with the language. I missed that! Maybe it's just an Asturian thing, but people up there get a bit tetchy when the name of Oviedo is invoked to cover the whole principality. It's a throwback to the civil war when Oviedo remained an enclave of Francist support until the rest of the region was finally overrun. Franco (who had dealings with the region even before the civil war) took his revenge by obliterating the name of Asturias and calling it the "Province of Oviedo" instead. |
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Post by Foggy on Apr 20, 2019 21:07:35 GMT
Why is Ávila so right wing? And gipuzkoa so left? Is it due to Basque issues? Ávila is in Castille, no? The two coastal provinces certainly appear more proud to be Basque, and likely to speak the language, and progressive in a student-y way than the inland province of Álava. Indeed, there's an exclave of Castillian Burgos right in the middle of it! Upthread I referred to Navarre as "the Pamplona constituency" and nobody objected (although that's not on the coast). Most of the election talk in the Spanish media this week has been about next week's TV debates rather than about issues of substance and policy. From a psephological standpoint, there have been interesting articles on the website of the state broadcaster here and here for those with the language. I missed that! Maybe it's just an Asturian thing, but people up there get a bit tetchy when the name of Oviedo is invoked to cover the whole principality. It's a throwback to the civil war when Oviedo remained an enclave of Francist support until the rest of the region was finally overrun. Franco (who had dealings with the region even before the civil war) took his revenge by obliterating the name of Asturias and calling it the "Province of Oviedo" instead. I suspect in Gijón referring to it as the Province of Oviedo doesn't go down well anyway, even without that historical context. After all, Gijón has a larger population... |
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Post by Foggy on Apr 25, 2019 15:49:10 GMT
On the penultimate day of campaigning, it appears that posing with dogs is the new kissing babies, as some of the top candidates have been adopting that as a media-friendly photo op tactic. Of course, anyone who actually cares about animals – not just pets – should be voting for PACMA anyway.
Eleven of the most sparsely populated constituencies have not been visited by any of the main party leaders during the campaign. There have been demonstrations recently, both in those provinces and in the capital, asking for la España vacía ('empty Spain') not to be forgotten.
The TV debates passed off without major incident after all the fuss last week, but there was still one dramatic turn of events yesterday. The current head of the Madrid regional government, Ángel Garrido, suddenly and without warning his PP colleagues, defected to Ciudadanos by giving a speech at one of their press conferences. He had, to be fair, originally been a member of the Democratic and Social Centre party of late former PM Adolfo Suárez until 1991. He was only a compromise candidate to see out the rest of Cristina Cifuentes' term anyway, after she was ousted for corruption and theft last year. The new PP candidate for next month's regional election had already been announced as Isabel Díaz Ayuso.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 26, 2019 8:02:51 GMT
An OpinionPoll at .electomania. shows, that the second duel was won for a relative majority (38%, if i remember correctly) by Rivera, who was quite aggressive.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 26, 2019 18:49:04 GMT
An OpinionPoll at .electomania. shows, that the second duel was won for a relative majority (38%, if i remember correctly) by Rivera, who was quite aggressive. That would've been one of the last legal polls. To get around the ban on releasing poll numbers in the final week, Spaniards have to look in Andorran newspapers and then refer to 'fruits' instead of parties and their 'prices' rather than percentages. These are also called 'emoji panels' on social media. The PSOE are shown as being ahead of the PP by around 5 points. Ciudadanos do not look like catching the latter for second place. Today is officially the last day of campaigning. Tomorrow is set aside as a 'day of reflection' before voting on Sunday. |
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Post by torremark on Apr 27, 2019 8:58:56 GMT
In my part of Spain on the Alicante side of the Alicante Murcia border (just) by the coast it’s difficult to believe there are elections on. There are three sets within a month but apart from the A boards in the plaza which are used for posters there appears to be no activity on the ground. The Easter weather washed most of those off and did tend to keep people indoors.
Mind you this complete lack of UK style of campaigning is normal where the TV is almost wall to wall elections.
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Post by Foggy on Apr 27, 2019 18:44:32 GMT
In my part of Spain on the Alicante side of the Alicante Murcia border (just) by the coast it’s difficult to believe there are elections on. There are three sets within a month but apart from the A boards in the plaza which are used for posters there appears to be no activity on the ground. The Easter weather washed most of those off and did tend to keep people indoors. Mind you this complete lack of UK style of campaigning is normal where the TV is almost wall to wall elections. Are you planning to vote in the regional election that's being held on the same day? I've been trying to remind my friend in Gandia (subtly) that he is able to do so tomorrow. Since there's no actual campaigning today, I put together some back-of-a-fag-packet calculations to show the malapportionment of seats in the lower house. There may be errors since this was done hastily, but you get the gist of it. Even the 3 areas with the 'proper' number of MPs have vastly different numbers of residents per MP. Be aware of the distorting effect this can have when the results start to roll in tomorrow evening:   A factor to consider in my adopted region: the reason that turnout appears to have dropped sharply in Galicia in recent years is that a lot more people of Galician origin have the right to vote in Spanish elections these days. Many have never even set foot on Galician soil. There are around 100,000 "Galicians" abroad according to the current rules. The local news reports that only 1,186 of these have asked to vote either by post or at an embassy. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2019 18:48:55 GMT
Is this a result primarily of foreign nationals living in those regions in large numbers, and apportionment being based on eligible electors or is it actual malapportionment because it hasn't been updated for ages?
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Post by torremark on Apr 27, 2019 18:55:26 GMT
I will vote PSOE as I cant find a liberal alternative. I was asked 10 years ago to stand for a new liberal/center party but it was to late to pull together all the qualifying documentation. We also don’t have a rolling electoral roll so if you miss the deadline your stuffed. Have to say don’t really understand the mechanics of the system!
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 27, 2019 19:57:08 GMT
Is this a result primarily of foreign nationals living in those regions in large numbers, and apportionment being based on eligible electors or is it actual malapportionment because it hasn't been updated for ages? Bit of both, I think. Counting by residency obviously includes people who are too young to vote or otherwise disqualified as well. As I hinted at, it seems as if some citizens of Latin American countries may be eligible to vote too, including in a few cases people with links to Spain who aren't resident there. The regions were formed from provinces in the early 1980s, but most provincial borders haven't been altered for 200 years. Each region is guaranteed a minimum number of seats equivalent to twice the number of provinces it contains. I think the additional seats are based on dividing the population of Spain by 248 and seeing how many times each local population figure fits into it. Madrid therefore has 2 seats (for one province) + 35 based on population, whilst neighbouring Castille and León has 18 seats (for 9 provinces) + 13 based on its sparse population. The process of reapportioning seats is automatic and linked to the last figures published by the INE (equivalent of the ONS) the before the election. Madrid and Catalonia both gain one at the expense of Valencian Country and Asturias this time, but since all 4 regions are underrepresented, that's not a sign of the system correcting itself. The underlying structural problems of the apportionment formula is still there. Of course things are even worse in the Senate, but that's totally irrelevant to government formation, and that chamber never claimed to be based on representation by population. EDIT: All sources I've found suggest that only Spanish citizens have the right to vote. But the path to citizenship can be facilitated quite smoothly for many from former Spanish possessions elsewhere in the world, especially as they tend to already have the requisite language knowledge when they arrive. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 27, 2019 20:55:09 GMT
Is this a result primarily of foreign nationals living in those regions in large numbers, and apportionment being based on eligible electors or is it actual malapportionment because it hasn't been updated for ages? Their MalApportionment is caused by the fact, that even the least populated provinces are guaranteed 3 seats (instead of 1). In the TransFormation-era this was made by UCD in order to help them (although the bias towards PP and against PSOE hasn't been huge). |
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Post by Foggy on Apr 27, 2019 23:29:04 GMT
Is this a result primarily of foreign nationals living in those regions in large numbers, and apportionment being based on eligible electors or is it actual malapportionment because it hasn't been updated for ages? Their MalApportionment is caused by the fact, that even the least populated provinces are guaranteed 3 seats (instead of 1). In the TransFormation-era this was made by UCD in order to help them (although the bias towards PP and against PSOE hasn't been huge). The guaranteed minimum is 2 seats rather than 3, as noted above, else that would mean an even greater level of malapportionment than is already in place. The 40-year-old Constitution was a compromise between continuity Francoists, moderate democrats and (after the ban was lifted) Communists. The upper house was always designed to have an in-built rural bias and an inclination towards conservatism, but both houses have ended up a bit like that in practice. The transition was generally handled well by the centrists at a delicate time for the embryonic Spanish democracy, but it's left modern Spain with a flawed document that's difficult to amend. Moreover, Súarez and the UCD quickly fell out of favour with Spanish voters once they'd served their purpose. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 28, 2019 9:27:47 GMT
Their MalApportionment is caused by the fact, that even the least populated provinces are guaranteed 3 seats (instead of 1). In the TransFormation-era this was made by UCD in order to help them (although the bias towards PP and against PSOE hasn't been huge). The guaranteed minimum is 2 seats rather than 3, as noted above, else that would mean an even greater level of malapportionment than is already in place. In fact only Soria has 2 MPs, Teruel has already 3. |
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