Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 8, 2019 21:56:41 GMT
CARDIFF UA; Ely (Lab died)
Candidates:
BROOKMAN, Gavin (Conservative)
GIBSON, Andrea Emily (Plaid Cymru)
HUMPHREYS, Irene May (Labour)
JERRETT, Richard (Liberal Democrats)
2017: Lab 1472, 1380, 1269; PC 786, 745, 622; Con 509, 507; LD 267, 97, 84; TUSC 64
2012: Lab 1597, 1481, 1468; PC 791, 776, 767; Con 237, 236, 230; Grn 115; LD 95, 83, 75
2008: Lab 1273, 1257, 1048; PC 687, 657, 470; Con 525, 520, 491; LD 248, 241, 208
2004: Lab 1180, 1156, 1004; Ind 942, 826; Cardiff Citizens 599; LD 543, 352, 331; PC 347
The Plaid candidate was the third Plaid candidate in 2017.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE CC; Oundle (Con sitting as Ind resigned)
Candidates:
DE CAPELL BROOKE, Annabel Lucy (Conservative)
FOLGATE, Marc Steven (Liberal Democrat)
JAMES, Harry Edward (Labour)
SHIPHAM, Allan James (UKIP)
2017: Con 2608; Lab 956; LD 420
2013: Con 1849; UKIP 677; Lab 573; LD 225
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Post by Penddu on Feb 17, 2019 5:15:41 GMT
Cardiff Ely looks interesting. Normally this should be a safe Labour hold against Plaid. But Neil McEvoy AM - ex Plaid and now independent but Plaid supporting - has been very actively campaigning for the Plaid candidate. This should help Plaid except that Plaid central office have told the local party not to cooperate with him - except that local party are generally in Neil M camp and have ignored central office.
I expect a Labour hold but with a much closer margin Labour 700 to Plaid 600. Cons on 300 LD on 50.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 18, 2019 13:04:50 GMT
Cardiff Ely looks interesting. Normally this should be a safe Labour hold against Plaid. But Neil McEvoy AM - ex Plaid and now independent but Plaid supporting - has been very actively campaigning for the Plaid candidate. This should help Plaid except that Plaid central office have told the local party not to cooperate with him - except that local party are generally in Neil M camp and have ignored central office. I expect a Labour hold but with a much closer margin Labour 700 to Plaid 600. Cons on 300 LD on 50. Looking at Twitter it's as though there are two campaigns, the Plaid Campaign and The McEvoy campaign, both supporting the same candidate. I can just imagine the reaction of other parties if an expelled/suspended parliamentarian was found helping in a by-election. |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Feb 18, 2019 16:52:39 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 20, 2019 15:59:27 GMT
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Post by samdwebber on Feb 21, 2019 17:11:03 GMT
Not that we could compete with Andrew in any way, this feature from PoliticsHome has restarted if anyone wantewd to read or retweet:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 21, 2019 23:02:22 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 21, 2019 23:29:44 GMT
CARDIFF Ely
GIBSON, Andrea Emily (Plaid Cymru) 831
HUMPHREYS, Irene May (Labour) 779
BROOKMAN, Gavin (Conservative) 271
JERRETT, Richard (Liberal Democrats) 46
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 21, 2019 23:34:41 GMT
12.5% swing from Lab to PC apparently!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 21, 2019 23:39:10 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Feb 21, 2019 23:52:04 GMT
CARDIFF Ely GIBSON, Andrea Emily (Plaid Cymru) 831 HUMPHREYS, Irene May (Labour) 779 BROOKMAN, Gavin (Conservative) 271 JERRETT, Richard (Liberal Democrats) 46 Depressing but perhaps predictable after the week we’ve had. |
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Post by Rutlander on Feb 22, 2019 0:29:11 GMT
Oundle; CON hold
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 22, 2019 0:30:38 GMT
Cardiff, Ely - Plaid Cymru gain from Labour| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Plaid Cymru | 831 | 43.1% | +17.8% | +17.6% | +15.2% | +14.4% | Labour | 779 | 40.4% | -7.1% | -8.4% | -15.9% | -14.6% | Conservative | 271 | 14.1% | -2.4% | -4.0% | +5.7% | +5.5% | Liberal Democrat | 46 | 2.4% | -6.2% | -2.9% | -1.0% | -1.1% | TUSC |
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| -2.1% | -2.3% |
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| Green |
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| -4.1% | -4.2% | Total votes | 1,927 |
| 62% | 69% | 68% | 70% |
Swing Labour to Plaid Cymru ~ 12½% / 13% since 2017 and ~ 15½% / 14½% since 2012 Council now 39 Labour, 20 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Localist, 1 Independent (elected as Plaid Cymru) Northamptonshire, Oundle - Conservative hold (former Councillor sitting as Independent) | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Conservative | 1,864 | 51.3% | -14.1% | -4.3% | Liberal Democrat | 1,276 | 35.1% | +24.6% | +28.4% | Labour | 403 | 11.1% | -12.9% | -6.1% | UKIP | 89 | 2.5% | from nowhere | -17.9% | Total votes | 3,632 |
| 91% | 109% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 19½% since 2017 and ~ 16½% since 2013
Council now 42 Conservative, 11 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent (1 elected Conservative, 1 Labour)
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623
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Post by andrewp on Feb 22, 2019 7:34:55 GMT
2 not great results for the Conservatives and Labour after Independent Group week. Although that Conservative/ Lib Dem result is quite similar to Surrey from a few weeks ago
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Post by Penddu on Feb 22, 2019 8:48:19 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist.
Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election.
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,460
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 22, 2019 9:37:20 GMT
The last few Cardiff by elections for the council haven't been good for Labour? Anything locally going on there?
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Post by Penddu on Feb 22, 2019 10:42:53 GMT
The last few Cardiff by elections for the council haven't been good for Labour? Anything locally going on there? Complacency, arrogance, sense of entitlement.... |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 22, 2019 10:48:41 GMT
2 not great results for the Conservatives and Labour after Independent Group week. Although that Conservative/ Lib Dem result is quite similar to Surrey from a few weeks ago broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2019 10:49:14 GMT
CARDIFF Ely GIBSON, Andrea Emily (Plaid Cymru) 831 HUMPHREYS, Irene May (Labour) 779 BROOKMAN, Gavin (Conservative) 271 JERRETT, Richard (Liberal Democrats) 46 Depressing but perhaps predictable after the week we’ve had. Can't imagine it helped, but other posts in this thread suggest there is a bit more to it than that. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 22, 2019 10:51:16 GMT
2 not great results for the Conservatives and Labour after Independent Group week. Although that Conservative/ Lib Dem result is quite similar to Surrey from a few weeks ago broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? More likely to be about state of bankrupt Northamptonshire CC. |
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