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Post by thirdchill on Feb 22, 2019 10:51:22 GMT
2 not great results for the Conservatives and Labour after Independent Group week. Although that Conservative/ Lib Dem result is quite similar to Surrey from a few weeks ago broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? Or it might reflect how dire the local authority has been, in part at least. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2019 10:55:46 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist. Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election. And if they don't do that, what happens - he forms some sort of breakaway grouping? |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 22, 2019 10:57:48 GMT
broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? Or it might reflect how dire the local authority has been, in part at least. I think both the resigning County Councillors had been Leaders of their respective authorities and left in something of less than auspicious circumstances. Would always be a difficult defence for anyone with that background irrespective of previous results. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 22, 2019 11:05:59 GMT
broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? More likely to be about state of bankrupt Northamptonshire CC. Agreed that the fact that Northants is in an even worse state than Surrey is probably a factor, though Surrey has been teetering on the verge of "doing a Northants", but also might not entirely explain how poorly Labour did in Northants? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 22, 2019 11:06:59 GMT
broadly true, both Tory rural strongholds with little chance of any real change, and the same 4 parties contesting from roughly similar strengths, so here they are together: Warlingham,Surrey: Con 48(-8), LD 40(+11),UKIP 7(-3 ), Lab 5(=) Oundle, Northants: Con 51 (-14). LD 35(+25). Lab 11(-13), UKIP 2(+2) A reminder that the Lib Dem rise and both the Conservative and Labour decline, is substantially more marked in Northants than it was in Surrey. 3 weeks before. Might that be a comment on the events of the last few days? Just maybe? Or it might reflect how dire the local authority has been, in part at least. But in Northants, Labour started in second place, and might have been expected to benefit most. What happened there? |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 22, 2019 11:10:24 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist. Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election. And if they don't do that, what happens - he forms some sort of breakaway grouping? Interesting that Penddu appears to be calling for Plaid to take back Neil, and doesn't seem to want him in his new lot? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2019 11:11:35 GMT
Or it might reflect how dire the local authority has been, in part at least. But in Northants, Labour started in second place, and might have been expected to benefit most. What happened there? Its nothing that the LibDems haven't managed several times before in local byelections, even quite recently. Get something of a bandwagon going and support comes from both the "main" parties. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 22, 2019 11:14:41 GMT
But in Northants, Labour started in second place, and might have been expected to benefit most. What happened there? Its nothing that the LibDems haven't managed several times before, even quite recently. But ... but ... we're supposed to be irrelevant, dead, permanently tainted by the coalition, aren't we? And Labour under Jezza are new, reinvented, supposed to be inspiring everyone with a "kindler, gentler" version of politics. Hmm, maybe it isn't as simple as that ...
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Post by Penddu on Feb 22, 2019 12:00:45 GMT
And if they don't do that, what happens - he forms some sort of breakaway grouping? Interesting that Penddu appears to be calling for Plaid to take back Neil, and doesn't seem to want him in his new lot? Neil wants to rejoin Plaid - but we will gladly have him in 'our lot' if he doesnt make it back. Plaid are stupid - they have a history of getting rid of electoral assets - like Dafydd Wigley a few years ago, or more recently Nigel Copner... It is like they dont want to be successful? |
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Post by Penddu on Feb 22, 2019 12:02:52 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist. Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election. And if they don't do that, what happens - he forms some sort of breakaway grouping? He already did that...called Propel.. although that has fizzled out. In 12 months if Neil is not back in Plaid I predict he will join another party... |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 22, 2019 12:04:46 GMT
Its nothing that the LibDems haven't managed several times before, even quite recently. But ... but ... we're supposed to be irrelevant, dead, permanently tainted by the coalition, aren't we? And Labour under Jezza are new, reinvented, supposed to be inspiring everyone with a "kindler, gentler" version of politics. Hmm, maybe it isn't as simple as that ...
The most striking aspect of the Oundle result is that we have no history in this division (at county or district level, at all (well at least going back to 2003). Neither do Labour as it happens. This is in complete contrast to Surrey where some of our habitual seats are in the Warlingham division. I suspect that the result is down to a very energetic campaign from us (which bodes well for a few seats potentially in East Northants, an area where we have been all but moribund, in May), the County Council being the most complete basket case of any council in the country, and that's a true effort to be that(!) and the week we've just had which will start to feed through I suspect in results in the next few weeks and if nothing improves, into May. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 22, 2019 12:11:40 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist. Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election. I see what you mean, but I think they can take any embarrassment since ... er ... they gained the seat. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2019 12:17:32 GMT
But ... but ... we're supposed to be irrelevant, dead, permanently tainted by the coalition, aren't we? And Labour under Jezza are new, reinvented, supposed to be inspiring everyone with a "kindler, gentler" version of politics. Hmm, maybe it isn't as simple as that ...
The most striking aspect of the Oundle result is that we have no history in this division (at county or district level, at all (well at least going back to 2003). Neither do Labour as it happens. This is in complete contrast to Surrey where some of our habitual seats are in the Warlingham division. I suspect that the result is down to a very energetic campaign from us (which bodes well for a few seats potentially in East Northants, an area where we have been all but moribund, in May), the County Council being the most complete basket case of any council in the country, and that's a true effort to be that(!) and the week we've just had which will start to feed through I suspect in results in the next few weeks and if nothing improves, into May. This is local politics, it could be anything at all. I think it is probably a bit of being pissed off with the majors, a fillip to the non majors in the resignations this week and justified disdain for the gross incompetence of the Conservative Group in Northants. I very much doubt it has anything at all to do with the LDs qua LDs. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 22, 2019 12:21:07 GMT
But ... but ... we're supposed to be irrelevant, dead, permanently tainted by the coalition, aren't we? And Labour under Jezza are new, reinvented, supposed to be inspiring everyone with a "kindler, gentler" version of politics. Hmm, maybe it isn't as simple as that ...
(at county or district level, at all (well at least going back to 2003). Neither do Labour as it happens. This is in complete contrast to Surrey where some of our habitual seats are in the Warlingham division. I suspect that the result is down to a very energetic campaign from us (which bodes well for a few seats potentially in East Northants, an area where we have been all but moribund, in May), the County Council being the most complete basket case of any council in the country, and that's a true effort to be that(!) and the week we've just had which will start to feed through I suspect in results in the next few weeks and if nothing improves, into May. I noticed this when putting something together for the LDV private forum - our result in 2017 was only 10%, and in 2013 a measly 6%, while Labour had a respectable 24% last time round. It didn't suggest anything remarkable in the offing. And of course we still didn't win the seat. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 22, 2019 13:12:26 GMT
But ... but ... we're supposed to be irrelevant, dead, permanently tainted by the coalition, aren't we? And Labour under Jezza are new, reinvented, supposed to be inspiring everyone with a "kindler, gentler" version of politics. Hmm, maybe it isn't as simple as that ...
The most striking aspect of the Oundle result is that we have no history in this division (at county or district level, at all (well at least going back to 2003). Neither do Labour as it happens. This is in complete contrast to Surrey where some of our habitual seats are in the Warlingham division. I suspect that the result is down to a very energetic campaign from us (which bodes well for a few seats potentially in East Northants, an area where we have been all but moribund, in May), the County Council being the most complete basket case of any council in the country, and that's a true effort to be that(!) and the week we've just had which will start to feed through I suspect in results in the next few weeks and if nothing improves, into May.Oh I think she's quite impervious  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 22, 2019 13:44:43 GMT
How did one pronounce this weeks by elections?
Is Cardiff Ely eely or eel-eye?
Is Oundle oondle or owndle?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 22, 2019 13:47:29 GMT
The most striking aspect of the Oundle result is that we have no history in this division (at county or district level, at all (well at least going back to 2003). Neither do Labour as it happens. This is in complete contrast to Surrey where some of our habitual seats are in the Warlingham division. I suspect that the result is down to a very energetic campaign from us (which bodes well for a few seats potentially in East Northants, an area where we have been all but moribund, in May), the County Council being the most complete basket case of any council in the country, and that's a true effort to be that(!) and the week we've just had which will start to feed through I suspect in results in the next few weeks and if nothing improves, into May. This is local politics, it could be anything at all. I think it is probably a bit of being pissed off with the majors, a fillip to the non majors in the resignations this week and justified disdain for the gross incompetence of the Conservative Group in Northants. I very much doubt it has anything at all to do with the LDs qua LDs. Oh I certainly don't think this has got a huge amount to do with the people of Oundle having a damascene conversion to the tenants of Liberal Democracy either. What it does tell you in my opinion, is that if the distain towards the big two parties sustains in local elections through to May then whoever in any area is able to put in a decent campaign can take advantage. Our historic way of getting a toehold in an area is just that method. |
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Post by Rutlander on Feb 22, 2019 13:57:44 GMT
Oundle is definitely Ow-
Like several other commentators, I was surprised by the strong LD performance here.
Not only were the LDs in a clear third position in the division, the parl.y seat is a Con/Lab marginal which tends to mean those two parties have good organisations and enthused members willing to help out in a council by-election. Then, looking at Twitter, there were tweets about the campaign from Lab and Con in that order but v. little from the LDs. So everything pointed to an anti-incumbent surge which should have gone to Lab, not LD.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2019 14:15:13 GMT
How did one pronounce this weeks by elections? Is Cardiff Ely eely or eel-eye? Is Oundle oondle or owndle? ee-lee oun-del |
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Post by Penddu on Feb 22, 2019 14:55:41 GMT
The Ely result was poor for Labour - but it was only embarrassing for Plaid - however it was excellent for Neil McEvoy. The politician that Plaid wishes didnt exist. Plaid need to pull their head out of their collective anus and readmit Neil - they can then unseat the FM at next WA election. I see what you mean, but I think they can take any embarrassment since ... er ... they gained the seat. This was a win for Neil..not Plaid. Plaid told their supporters not to cooperate with him, but he was the first person that the winning candidate thanked. I think Plaid leadership would have preferred to lose!!! Seriously.... |
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