Prediction Competition - February 2019

[middleenglander]

It looks like 10 by-elections during February
* 6 on 07 February
* 1 on 14 February
* 2 on 21 February
* 1 on 28 February

3 of the by-elections are for London Boroughs last contested in 2018
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough last contested in 2018
1 for an Unitary Authority last contested in 2018
2 for County Councils last contested in 2017
2 for Welsh Councils last contested in 2017 and
1 for a District Council last contested in 2016

Conservatives defend 3 seats, 2 following the resignation of the previous Councillor and 1 the death of a Councillor
Labour defend 5 seats, 3 following a resignation and 2 a death
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation and
East Wycombe Independents defend 1 seat following a death

Conservatives and Labour each contest all 10 seats, Liberal Democrats 9, Greens 5, UKIP 3, Plaid Cymru 1 and Independents 2
whilst Aspire and Women's Equality both 2 together with East Wycombe Independent and The House 1 each
- a total of 46 candidates for the 10 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the by-election.

[Tony Otim]

Right, let's see how badly wrong I can get this lot:

Bradford: Lab 45; LD 44.5; Con 8.5; Grn 2
Buckinghamshire: EWI 38.7; Lab 23.2; Con 21.8; LD 16.3
Lambeth: Lab 60.8; Con 13.5; Grn 11.3; LD 8.8; UKIP 3.5; WEQ 2.1
TH Lansbury: Lab 47.1; Asp 21.2; LD 15.3; Con 8.2; Grn 4.2; UKIP 2.8; House 1.2
TH Shadwell: Lab 38.4; LD 26.6; Asp 19.5; Ind 6.2; Con 4.0; Grn 3.2; WEQ 2.1
Wokingham: Con 46.1; LD 45.2; Lab 8.7

[Toylyyev]

Chiche:

Bradford MBC, Bolton & Undercliffe: Liberal Democrats 49, Labour 43, Conservative 6, Green 2.
Buckinghamshire CC, Totteridge & Bowerdean: East Wycombe Independent 43, Labour 22, Liberal Democrat 20, Conservative 15.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 49, Liberal Democrat 26, Conservative 13, Green 7, UKIP 3, Women’s Equality Party 2.
Tower Hamlets LBC, Lansbury: Labour 35, Aspire 31, Liberal Democrat 19, Green 6, Conservative 5, UKIP 3, The House Party – Homes for Londoners 1.
Tower Hamlets LBC, Shadwell: Liberal Democrat 40, Labour 28, Aspire 16, Independent 7, Conservative 4, Green 4, Women’s Equality Party 1.
Wokingham BC, Evendons: Liberal Democrat 50, Conservative 41, Labour 9.

[iainbhx]

First go for me

Bolton & Undercliffe: Lab 44 LDm 41, Con 13, Grn 2
Totteridge & Bowerdean; Ind 36, Lab 32, Con 17, LDm 15
Thornton: Lab 56 LDm 15 Con 14 Grn 12 WEP 2 UKIP 1
Lansbury: Lab 45, Aspire 21, LDm 16, Con 10, Grn 5, UKIP 2, House 1
Shadwell: Lab 38 LDm 28 Aspire 17 Ind 8 Con 5, Grn 3, WEP 1
Evendons: Con 46 LDm 41 Lab 13

[jamesrodriguez]

Bradford, Bolton & Undercliffe: LD 51, Lab 40, Con 6, Grn 3.
Buckinghamshire, Totteridge & Bowerdean: EWI 37, LD 25, Con 22, Lab 16.
Lambeth, Thornton: Lab 57, LD 18, Con 12, Grn 10, WEP 2, UKIP 1.
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury: Lab 34, LD 25, Asp 23, Grn 8, Con 6, UKIP 3, THP 1.
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell: LD 40, Lab 28, Asp 19, Ind 5, Grn 4, Con 4.
Wokingham BC, Evendons: LD 52, Con 40, Lab 8.

[Deleted]

Bolton & Undercliffe (Bradford): LD 43 Lab 37 Con 15 Grn 5
Totteridge & Bowerdean (Buckinghamshire): EWI 43 Lab 20 Con 19 LD 18
Thornton (Lambeth): Lab 54 LD 20 Con 12 Grn 11 WEP 2 UKIP 1
Lansbury (Tower Hamlets): Lab 40 LD 22 Asp 24 Con 6 Grn 4 UKIP 2 THP 2
Shadwell (Tower Hamlets): Lab 37 LD 32 Asp 13 Ind 10 Con 4 Grn 4
Evendons (Wokingham): LD 49 Con 42 Lab 9

[greenhert]

Bradford MBC, Bolton & Undercliffe: Liberal Democrats 45, Labour 39, Conservative 13, Green 3.
Buckinghamshire CC, Totteridge & Bowdean: East Wycombe Independent 40, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 22, Labour 16.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 55, Liberal Democrats 21, Green 11, Conservative 10, WEP 2, UKIP 1.
Tower Hamlets LBC, Lansbury: Labour 38, Aspire 33, Liberal Democrats 15, Conservative 7, Green 4, UKIP 2, The House Party 1.
Tower Hamlets LBC, Shadwell: Labour 44, Aspire 33, Independent 7, Green 5, Conservative 5, Liberal Democrats 4, WEP 2.
Wokingham UA, Evendons: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 42, Labour 8.

[robbienicoll]

Bolton and Undercliffe, Bradford: Con 11, Lab 43, LD 42, Green 4
Totteridge and Bowerdean, Buckinghamshire: Con 16, Lab 16, LD 25, EWI 43
Thornton, Lambeth: Con 14, Lab 64, LD 7, Green 8, UKIP 5, WEP 2
Lansbury, Tower Hamlets: Con 7, Lab 42, LD 12, Green 5, UKIP 3, Aspire 30, House 1
Shadwell, Tower Hamlets: Con 4, Lab 33, LD 12, Green 4, WEP 1, Aspire 43, Ind 3
Evendons, Wokingham: Con 34, Lab 10, LD 56

[Deleted]

Bolton and Undercliffe, Bradford: Con 15, Lab 40, LD 35, Green 10
Totteridge and Bowerdean, Buckinghamshire: Con 20, Lab 10, LD 30, EWI 40
Thornton, Lambeth: Con 20, Lab 50, LD 15, Green 10, UKIP 2, WEP 3
Lansbury, Tower Hamlets: Con 10, Lab 40, LD 20, Green 15, UKIP 5, Aspire 5, House 5
Shadwell, Tower Hamlets: Con 10, Lab 25, LD 20, Green 10, WEP 5, Aspire 20, Ind 10
Evendons, Wokingham: Con 30, Lab 20, LD 50

[peterl]

Bolton and Undercliffe, Bradford: LD 45, Lab 42, Con 9, Green 4
Totteridge and Bowerdean, Buckinghamshire: EWI 39, Lab 25, LD 22, Con 14
Thornton, Lambeth: Lab 57, Con 14, LD 12, Green 12, UKIP 3, WEP 2
Lansbury, Tower Hamlets: Lab 42, Aspire 20, LD 15, Green 8, Con 8, UKIP 4, House 3
Shadwell, Tower Hamlets: Lab 35, Aspire 24, Ind 19, LD 8, Con 6, Green 5, WEP 3
Evendons, Wokingham: LD 48, Con 42, Lab 10

[greatkingrat]

Bradford - LD 47, Lab 40, Con 10, Grn 3
Buckinghamshire - Ind 38, Con 27, Lab 22, LD 13
Lambeth - Lab 62, Con 14, Grn 10, LD 10, WEP 2, UKIP 2
Tower Hamlets (Lansbury) - Lab 40, Aspire 31, LD 12, Con 8, Grn 6, UKIP 2, House 1
Tower Hamlets (Shadwell) - Lab 35, Aspire 24, LD 19, Ind 8, Con 6, Grn 6, WEP 2
Wokingham - Con 45, LD 44, Lab 11

[Robert Waller]

Bradford - LD 47, Lab 46, Con 6, Grn 1
Buckinghamshire - Ind 38, Con 18, Lab 24, LD 20
Lambeth - Lab 63, Con 13, Grn 7, LD 12, WEP 3, UKIP 2
Tower Hamlets (Lansbury) - Lab 35, Aspire 27, LD 29, Con 4, Grn 2, UKIP 1, House 2
Tower Hamlets (Shadwell) - Lab 33, Aspire 26, LD 32, Ind 2, Con 3, Grn 1, WEP 3
Wokingham - Con 40, LD 50, Lab 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRADFORD Bolton and Undercliffe: L Dem 50, Lab 41, C 7, GP 2
BUCKINGHAMSHIRE Totteridge and Bowerdean: EW Ind 36, Lab [susp] 28, L Dem 19, C 17
LAMBETH Thornton: Lab 46, GP 23, C 17, L Dem 8, WEP 5, UKIP 1
TOWER HAMLETS Lansbury: Lab 47, Asp 20, L Dem 15, C 10, GP 4, THPHL 3, UKIP 1
TOWER HAMLETS Shadwell: Lab 39, L Dem [susp] 35, Asp 13, C 5, GP 3, Ind 3, WEP 2
WOKINGHAM Evendons: L Dem 55, C 36, Lab 9

[yellowperil]

Bradford, Bolton & Undercliffe: Con 12, Lab 40, LD 45,Green 3
Bucks, Totteridge &Bowerdean: Con 18, Lab* 30. LD 12, EW Ind 40
Lambeth, Thornton: Con 15, Lab 50, LD 15, Green 17, UKIP 1. WEP 2
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury: Con 6, Lab 45, LD 18, Green 2, UKIP 1,Aspire 27, House 1
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell: Con 5, Lab 40, LD* 36, Green 2, Aspire 15, WEP 1, Ind 1
Wokingham, Evendons: Con 39, Lab 10, LD 51

* party candidates suspended

[ricmk]

Seriously wondering whether to miss a couple out, and take the 100 point penalty. I can easily see the real scores being higher.

BRADFORD: LD 50 Lab 45 Con 4 Green 1
BUCKS: Ind 28 Con 26 LD 24 Lab 22
LAMBETH: Lab 55 Con 18 LD 17 Green 6 Women 2 UKIP 2
TOWER HAMLETS(Lansbury): Lab 47 Aspire 28 LD 17 Con 4 Green 2 UKIP 1 Noel 1
TOWER HAMLETS(Shadwell): Lab 43 LD 24 Aspire 22, Con 4 Ind 4 Green 2, Women 1
WOKINGHAM: LD 47 Con 44 Lab 9

[andrewp]

Bradford, Bolton and Undercliffe LD 47, Lab 39, Con 10, Green 4
Bucks, Totteridge and Bowerdean Ind 39, Lab 26, Lib Dem 18, Con 17
Lambeth, Thornton Lab 56, LiB Dem 17, Green 13, Con 11, WEP 2, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury Lab 38, Aspire 29, Lib Dem 18, Con 7, Green 4, House 3, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell Lab 38, Lib Dem 25, Aspire 23, Con 6, Ind 3, Wep 3, Green 2
Wokingham, Evendons Lib Dem 51, Con 40, Lab 9

[Right Leaning]

Bradford, Bolton and Undercliffe LD 45, Lab 40, C 12, Green 3
Bucks, Totteridge and Bowerdean Ind 44, Lab 24, C 18, LD 14
Lambeth, Thornton Lab 59, LD 17, C 11, Gn 10, WEP 2, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury Lab 42, Aspire 30, LD 15, C 7, Gn 4, House 1, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell Lab 40, Aspire 23, LD 22, Con 8, Ind 3, WEP 2, Gn 2
Wokingham, Evendons LD 49, Con 42, Lab 9

[olympian95]

Bradford: LD 46, Lab 42, Con 9, Green 3

Bucks: EWI 34, LD 31, Lab 24, Con 11

Thornton: Lab 42, Green 19, Con 18, LD 16 WEP 3 UKIP 2

Lansbury: Lab 43, Aspire 23, LD 16, Con 10, Green 5, UKIP 2, House 1

Shadwell: Lab 38, LD 36, Aspire 11, Ind 6, Con 6, Green 2, WEP 1

Wokingham: LD 49, Con 39, Lab 12

[hempie]

Bradford, Bolton and Undercliffe: LD 46, Lab 38, Con 11, Green 5
Buckinghamshire, Totteridge and Bowerdean: EWInd 38, Lab 24, LD 19, Con 19
Lambeth, Thornton: Lab 58, LD 15, Green 14, Con 9, WEP 3, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury: Lab 35, Aspire 27, LD 22, Con 7, Green 5, House 3, UKIP 1
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell: Lab 36, LD 28, Aspire 22, Con 6, Ind 3, Green 3, WEP 2
Wokingham, Evendons: LD 53, Con 39, Lab 8

[middleenglander]

18 entrants with iainbhx making a maiden appearance and greatkingrat a return after a 4½ year break (I think).

Bradford, Bolton & Undercliffe: 14 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, iainbhx, priceofdawn, robbienicoll & Tony Otim Labour hold
Buckinghamshire, Buckeridge & Bowerdean: 100% East Wycombe Independent hold, 11 Labour second, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Conservative, 1 Conservative / Liberal Democrat.
Lambeth, Thornton: 100% Labour hold, 8 Liberal Democrat second, 7 Conservative, 3 Green
Tower Hamlets, Lansbury: 100% Labour hold, 15 Aspire second, 3 Liberal Democrat
Tower Hamlets, Shadwell: 16 Labour hold, 10 Liberal Democrat second, 5 Aspire, 1 Aspire / Liberal Democrat, robbienicoll Aspire gain, jamesrodrigues Liberal Democrat gain
Wokingham, Evendons: 15 Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Conservative 3% (rickmk) to 22% (robbienicoll), greatkingrat, iainbhx & Tony Otim Conservative gain