Danish General Election, 2019

[Devil Wincarnate]

Due by 17th June 2019.

Polling currently shows a hypothetical Red bloc leading a hypothetical Blue bloc.  I'll do some digging.

[nelson]

The election has been called for the 5th of June, Denmark's national day (Constitution Day). 

[jamie]

Current polling average (compared to 2015)

Social Democrats (centre left) - 27% (+1)
Venstre (centre right) - 19% (-1)
DPP (anti-immigration) - 12% (-9)
RGA (far left) - 9% (+1)
SPP (lefty Social Democrats) - 7% (+3)
Social Liberals (lefty neoliberals) - 7% (+2)
CPP (centre right) - 4% (+1)
The Alternative (greens, cult) - 4% (-1)
Liberal Alliance (libertarians) - 4% (-4)
New Right - (free market DPP) - 3% (+3)
Hard Line - (really far right) - 3% (+3)
Christian Democrats (christian democracy) - 1% (nc)
KRP (centre right, cult) - 1% (+1)


Potential governments (assuming the Christian Democrats and KDR miss the 2% threshold)

Social Democrats (red block) - 55% - The normal left wing majority is no longer realistically possible due to divisions over immigration. The Alternative have ruled out backing the Social Democrats.
Social Democrats (red block minus) - 51% - Very narrowly on course for a majority, As mentioned above there are deep divisions over immigration and the government would be unstable. Only a last resort and RGA may still say no.
Social Democrats (anti-immigration) - 47% - A government based around centre left economics and stricter immigration/cultural laws. The Social Democrats can depend on the SPP and then add DPP who are essentially an immigration pressure group. DPP will provide confidence if a right wing government is not possible (as looks the case) in order to ensure Denmark has a hardline immigration policy. Looking unlikely now due to DPP’s recent collapse in the polls.
Social Democrats (only option) - Depends - A Social Democrat government based on no other government being possible. Would require negotiating with groups as diverse as Venstre, DPP, the RGA and/or the Social Liberals. The exact direction would depend on which parties allow it and the support of one party could lead to the loss of another eg: on the issue of immigration.
Venstre (blue bloc) - 40% - No chance numerically and both DPP and Liberal Alliance want more radical policies anyways.
Venstre (blue bloc plus) - 43% - Numerically very unlikely and that’s assuming the Venstre moderates could do a deal with the New Right which is hard to see in and of itself.

[jamie]

The Social Democrats are very likely to return to government and should be a minority government. The trends since 2015 are that they have gained votes back from DPP by going hardline on immigration while losing the same amount to more liberal left parties. The Social Democrats place great importance on immigration/the working class vote so it’s hard to see them doing a complete u-turn. On the right side of the spectrum, Liberal Alliance have significantly declined as they are now a more establishment party and haven’t delivered the radical change they promised. In recent months the New Right and Hard Line has gained votes primarily off the DPP and the rest off other right wing parties. The right was already behind in the polls and the loss of significant support to parties beyond the pale has pretty much finished off any chances of a right wing government after June. It has also made a Social Democrats DPP deal unlikely as DPP’s collapse means it no longer has a majority and DPP need to watch their right flank.

The most likely scenario is now a Social Democrat minority government that is tolerated (Denmark requires a negative majority to remove a government). This would need some combination of DPP, Venstre, RGA and the Social Liberals to allow them into office and then not vote them out. A Social Democrat government supported by DPP looks unlikely to have a majority but would be the most stable. Realistically, a tolerated Social Democrat minority government is the next best option. The Social Democrats would do deals on immigration with the right wing parties while doing deals on taxes, welfare and the environment with the left wing parties.

[Merseymike]

May 9, 2019 21:06:24 GMT jamie said:

Current polling average (compared to 2015)

Social Democrats (centre left) - 27% (+1)
Venstre (centre right) - 19% (-1)
DPP (anti-immigration) - 12% (-9)
RGA (far left) - 9% (+1)
SPP (lefty Social Democrats) - 7% (+3)
Social Liberals (lefty neoliberals) - 7% (+2)
CPP (centre right) - 4% (+1)
The Alternative (greens, cult) - 4% (-1)
Liberal Alliance (libertarians) - 4% (-4)
New Right - (free market DPP) - 3% (+3)
Hard Line - (really far right) - 3% (+3)
Christian Democrats (christian democracy) - 1% (nc)
KRP (centre right, cult) - 1% (+1)


Potential governments (assuming the Christian Democrats and KDR miss the 2% threshold)

Wouldn't describe the social liberals as neoliberal, They are centrist in Denmark but are clearly more left than right.
The !iberal Alliance are the neoliberal party, free market economics but not anti-immigrant

[jamie]

Some general points about Danish politics relating to this election:

There are traditionally 2 blocs of left and right. Divisions over immigration have isolated the Social Democrats from parties like the RGA, The Alternative and the Social Liberals. The emergence of the proper far right has also weakened the ability of the right to win a governing majority.
The Social Democrats have went really far to the right on immigration for a mainstream left wing party. They have always been more conservative on this issue than most European counterparts but under Frederiksen’s leadership they have really pushed the envelope and are now attacking the current government (which has banned the burqa, instituted ghetto laws etc) as too liberal on immigration/multiculturalism. This doesn’t seem like a Swedish case where they can u-turn and form a pro-immigration Coalition. Their voters pretty much all support the new hardline stance and the new policies have been crucial in ensuring a left wing (of various sorts) majority.
It’s not clear how far the left wing parties can be pushed by the Social Democrats. The Alternative have already said they won’t support Frederiksen (ostentatiously on climate but it’s really about immigration) while RGA are very reluctant without policy changes. The Social Liberals are also very unhappy with the immigration policy but don’t really have anywhere else to turn. SPP will always support the Social Democrats and only exist to push them a little to the left.
The current government is regarded as a bit pointless and there’s no great enthusiasm for it to continue.
DPP are not really ‘far right’ but rather an anti-immigrant pressure group. They have traditionally drawn support from authoritarian voters of both left, right and centre. They are notionally right wing because that’s where immigration restrictions have been more possible but economically they would be happy to go along with centre-left economics (of the populist kind). They are in a bit of a mess now because the Social Democrats are winning back the left wingers while they have lost free market voters to the New Right and slightly fascist voters to Hard Line. The next few weeks will be crucial in determine the importance of the party and post-election they need to decide if they can really support a Social Democrat government. This would have been likely if they were polling higher but they may need to respond to losses on their right flank by sticking to the right bloc.

[jamie]

May 9, 2019 21:25:12 GMT Merseymike said:

May 9, 2019 21:06:24 GMT jamie said:

Social Liberals (lefty neoliberals) - 7% (+2)
Liberal Alliance (libertarians) - 4% (-4)

Wouldn't describe the social liberals as neoliberal, They are centrist in Denmark but are clearly more left than right.
The !iberal Alliance are the neoliberal party, free market economics but not anti-immigrant

I was using neoliberal in the Blairite kind of context (that’s why I included the ‘lefty’ bit). They are part of the left bloc but have always been the most free market party part of it (they have led pushes for tax cuts for the rich, privatisation etc). They are mainly on the left because they are very socially liberal and culturally don’t fit with parties like DPP on the right. To use a Lib Dem metaphor, their politicians are Nick Clegg while their voters are a bit more of the sandal wearer variety. 

The Liberal Alliance hold some very economically right wing views and are only tempered by the fact that there is no majority for them (DPP trade tax cuts for immigration restrictions). While the politicians themselves are not too fussed by immigration, they are happy to go along with whatever the mainstream right wing opinion is. Interestingly, their voters are actually very authoritarian on social issues like immigration and only voted Liberal Alliance for their free market views (many of them now say they will vote for the New Right). 

[Sibboleth]

A lot of Liberal Alliance voters were the sort of people who used to vote for the Conservative People's Party back when they were relevant outside local government, though younger.

[greenhert]

May 9, 2019 21:06:24 GMT jamie said:

Current polling average (compared to 2015)

Social Democrats (centre left) - 27% (+1)
Venstre (centre right) - 19% (-1)
DPP (anti-immigration) - 12% (-9)
RGA (far left) - 9% (+1)
SPP (lefty Social Democrats) - 7% (+3)
Social Liberals (lefty neoliberals) - 7% (+2)
CPP (centre right) - 4% (+1)
The Alternative (greens, cult) - 4% (-1)
Liberal Alliance (libertarians) - 4% (-4)
New Right - (free market DPP) - 3% (+3)
Hard Line - (really far right) - 3% (+3)
Christian Democrats (christian democracy) - 1% (nc)
KRP (centre right, cult) - 1% (+1)


Potential governments (assuming the Christian Democrats and KDR miss the 2% threshold)

Social Democrats (red block) - 55% - The normal left wing majority is no longer realistically possible due to divisions over immigration. The Alternative have ruled out backing the Social Democrats.
Social Democrats (red block minus) - 51% - Very narrowly on course for a majority, As mentioned above there are deep divisions over immigration and the government would be unstable. Only a last resort and RGA may still say no.
Social Democrats (anti-immigration) - 47% - A government based around centre left economics and stricter immigration/cultural laws. The Social Democrats can depend on the SPP and then add DPP who are essentially an immigration pressure group. DPP will provide confidence if a right wing government is not possible (as looks the case) in order to ensure Denmark has a hardline immigration policy. Looking unlikely now due to DPP’s recent collapse in the polls.
Social Democrats (only option) - Depends - A Social Democrat government based on no other government being possible. Would require negotiating with groups as diverse as Venstre, DPP, the RGA and/or the Social Liberals. The exact direction would depend on which parties allow it and the support of one party could lead to the loss of another eg: on the issue of immigration.
Venstre (blue bloc) - 40% - No chance numerically and both DPP and Liberal Alliance want more radical policies anyways.
Venstre (blue bloc plus) - 43% - Numerically very unlikely and that’s assuming the Venstre moderates could do a deal with the New Right which is hard to see in and of itself.

The Alternative Party is hardly a "cult"-it is a moderate green party.

KRP is more like a vanity vehicle for Klaus Riskaer Pedersen than a cult as such.

[jamie]

greenhert I was using the word in a slightly jokey way, but they are quite ‘alternative’. They want to be much more than just a political party for their supporters, they are essentially a 1 man band, and they have declared they only support themselves to be leaders of Denmark (they are polling 4% and won’t even support the other green left Party). They aren’t really moderate either as they are quite ideologically pure (on immigration and the environment at least) and have a quasi anarchist streak to them.

[Devil Wincarnate]

The Alternative are smug Varoufakis groupies. They are an alternative in the same way that Change UK stand for radical change.

[polupolu]

May 9, 2019 21:25:12 GMT Merseymike said:

May 9, 2019 21:06:24 GMT jamie said:

Current polling average (compared to 2015)

Social Democrats (centre left) - 27% (+1)
Venstre (centre right) - 19% (-1)
DPP (anti-immigration) - 12% (-9)
RGA (far left) - 9% (+1)
SPP (lefty Social Democrats) - 7% (+3)
Social Liberals (lefty neoliberals) - 7% (+2)
CPP (centre right) - 4% (+1)
The Alternative (greens, cult) - 4% (-1)
Liberal Alliance (libertarians) - 4% (-4)
New Right - (free market DPP) - 3% (+3)
Hard Line - (really far right) - 3% (+3)
Christian Democrats (christian democracy) - 1% (nc)
KRP (centre right, cult) - 1% (+1)


Potential governments (assuming the Christian Democrats and KDR miss the 2% threshold)

Wouldn't describe the social liberals as neoliberal, They are centrist in Denmark but are clearly more left than right.
The !iberal Alliance are the neoliberal party, free market economics but not anti-immigrant

Unfortunately, "Neoliberal" now means something rather specific (and not much related to the traditional British use of the word "Liberal" - Presumably an American usage initially; as was Libertarian if I understand correctly). 

European Liberal parties often come in two flavours which the academics label "Social Liberal" and "Economic Liberal".  Generally, both take a liberal view on social issues and the division is on the balance between the "freedoms from" (poverty, ignorance, conformity) and the "freedoms to" (do what you like with your money).  Venstre used to be an "Economic Liberal" party (I don't know if it still is).

Historically in Britain, some people who would have been "Economic Liberals" in European terms, ended up in the Conservatives (along with some people who wouldn't have been seen dead in any sort of Liberal party)

[The Bishop]

Of course a certain former PM (in)famously described herself as an "old style" (ie economic) liberal

[Devil Wincarnate]

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/denmark-election-matte-frederiksen-leftwing-immigration

[jamie]

Very good piece. However, the new immigration policies are not really pandering. They pandered in 2015 but Frederiksen is just articulating what she and her supporters have thought for years but been unable to say. Polling data has shown that their voters are much more anti immigration than other red bloc voters and in a proportional system where you have 5 notable left wing parties, it makes sense for at least 1 to take a hardline stance of immigration since that’s where the red-blue bloc swing voters are.

[jamie]

Can we have a poll added AdminSTB ? Options would be the 13 parties listed above, probably in unabbreviated form.

[nelson]

In a new interview book released today (based on interviews conducted late-March to mid-April) PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen has opened up for a grand coalition with the Social Democrats to "handle the challenges ahead" and avoid giving "fringe parties" too much influence within the blocs. 

It seems like a rather risky move as he is throwing his coalition partners under the bus and acknowledging Mette Frederiksen as the inevitable next PM. It's also hard to see a left leaning Social Democrat like Frederiksen agreeing to such a coalition.  

Political commentator Erik Holstein says such a government is "not a lot more realistic than dragons and ice-zombies" and gives it a one percent chance of happening (which I would assume is higher than the chance of meeting an ice-zombie, but perhaps not in Denmark). 

[jamie]

nelson an actual coalition is a step too far but confidence and supply may become the last remaining option if Frederiksen plays hardball on immigration and the RGA and Social Liberals refuse to support her.

Update on polling - It’s now looking like a landslide for the red bloc. A few weeks ago it looked 54-46 but now it’s more likely 56-44. This is including in the blue bloc the Christian Democrats and KRP who are unlikely to make the threshold, the New Right who are extreme, and Hardline who are beyond the pale. That’s 6% of that 44% which is outside the mainstream, and at least 2% which is not useable for government formation. It’s not a slam dunk, but it’s incredibly hard to see Frederiksen not becoming PM.

[Antiochian]

May 9, 2019 21:40:42 GMT jamie said:

Some general points about Danish politics relating to this election:

There are traditionally 2 blocs of left and right. Divisions over immigration have isolated the Social Democrats from parties like the RGA, The Alternative and the Social Liberals. The emergence of the proper far right has also weakened the ability of the right to win a governing majority.
The Social Democrats have went really far to the right on immigration for a mainstream left wing party. They have always been more conservative on this issue than most European counterparts but under Frederiksen’s leadership they have really pushed the envelope and are now attacking the current government (which has banned the burqa, instituted ghetto laws etc) as too liberal on immigration/multiculturalism. This doesn’t seem like a Swedish case where they can u-turn and form a pro-immigration Coalition. Their voters pretty much all support the new hardline stance and the new policies have been crucial in ensuring a left wing (of various sorts) majority.
It’s not clear how far the left wing parties can be pushed by the Social Democrats. The Alternative have already said they won’t support Frederiksen (ostentatiously on climate but it’s really about immigration) while RGA are very reluctant without policy changes. The Social Liberals are also very unhappy with the immigration policy but don’t really have anywhere else to turn. SPP will always support the Social Democrats and only exist to push them a little to the left.
The current government is regarded as a bit pointless and there’s no great enthusiasm for it to continue.
DPP are not really ‘far right’ but rather an anti-immigrant pressure group. They have traditionally drawn support from authoritarian voters of both left, right and centre. They are notionally right wing because that’s where immigration restrictions have been more possible but economically they would be happy to go along with centre-left economics (of the populist kind). They are in a bit of a mess now because the Social Democrats are winning back the left wingers while they have lost free market voters to the New Right and slightly fascist voters to Hard Line. The next few weeks will be crucial in determine the importance of the party and post-election they need to decide if they can really support a Social Democrat government. This would have been likely if they were polling higher but they may need to respond to losses on their right flank by sticking to the right bloc.

Ghetto laws? Outlawing ghettos or instituting them?

And a party called "Hard Line"? Is that a literal translation?? Makes UKIP seem warm and fuzzy...

[jamie]

Antiochian Ghetto’s are legally defined as areas with at least 3 of the following; low education/employment, high levels of primary education only, high levels of income poverty, at least 3 times as many criminal convictions as Denmark as a whole, or at least 50% of residents are non-Western migrants/descendent from non-Western migrants. Individuals receiving welfare, including asylum seekers, are not allowed to settle in ghettoes. Children from ghettoes will have significant mandatory early education including in Danish values and culture. There are also plans to gentrify many neighbourhoods.

The party has been translated into English as Hard Line. A google translate calls them Tight Course. Regardless, they make Gerard Batten look like a liberal lefty. They support deporting most citizens of non-Danish ancestry. They rose to fame for their leaders anti-Islam protests which included burning the Koran.