Danish General Election, 2019

[jamie]

Jun 5, 2019 18:46:52 GMT curiousliberal said:

Is it possible that the red bloc, if they had significant objections to the social democrats, could partner up with the more liberal elements of Venstre?

The Social Liberals could but that would rely on dumping DPP which would obviously mean they are miles away from a majority. SPP and RGA are politically closer to Social Democrats for sure. It’s not like Venstre are a liberal party anyways. They govern essentially as a standard centre-right party, and are probably to the right of the average EPP member. 

[Toylyyev]

Results site:

kmdvalg.dk/Main/Home/FV

[Sibboleth]

Venstre are to the right of the Social Democrats on literally every issue. There's been some really bad reporting of this election (and of Danish politics in general) in English and it seems to have given a lot of people a seriously warped impression of what's going on.

[Sibboleth]

Latest estimates:

[jamie]

Jun 5, 2019 19:15:35 GMT Sibboleth said:

Venstre are to the right of the Social Democrats on literally every issue. There's been some really bad reporting of this election (and of Danish politics in general) in English and it seems to have given a lot of people a seriously warped impression of what's going on.

I mostly agree, but there’s a decent chunk of the Social Democrats who are more ‘right wing’ (in the communitarian sense) than a decent chunk of Venstre on immigration. On most issues though I agree that the Social Democrats are further left. 

[andrea]

98.2% counted

Social Democrats 26.16

Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

Danish People's Party 8.85

Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

Socialist People's Party 7.63

Red Green Alliance 6.71

Conservative People's Party 6.66

The Alternative 2.86

The New Right 2.38

Liberal Alliance 2.31

Hard Line 1.8

Christian Democrats 1.75

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 5, 2019 21:35:24 GMT andrea said:

98.2% counted

Social Democrats 26.16

Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

Danish People's Party 8.85

Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

Socialist People's Party 7.63

Red Green Alliance 6.71

Conservative People's Party 6.66

The Alternative 2.86

The New Right 2.38

Liberal Alliance 2.31

Hard Line 1.8

Christian Democrats 1.75

52:48 - a comparatively strong result for the BlueBloc.

[jamie]

Definitely the best the blue bloc could have hoped for. Should be noted that this works out 54:46 in terms of seats due to the exclusion of Hardline, CD and KRP.

[jamie]

Quick good night/bad night evaluations for each party:

SD - A win but an underperformance, Repeat of 2015 but with voters flowing from the right to SD and the same number flowing further left (liberal).
Venstre - Very good night. Clearly the strongest party on the right once again.
DPP - Absolutely dire. Worse than any polls predicted. Only positive is that Hardline missed the threshold so only 1 party to their right on immigration.
Social Liberals - Very good night. Back in the game after years of decline.
SPP - Good performance.
RGA - Poor performance. SPP seem to have hit them a bit. Should have done better outside government and with a distinctive profile.
CPP - Very good result. Reestablishing themselves after years of decline and it didn’t even come at the expense of Venstre.
Alternative - Poor, especially considering the focus on climate change. A bit pointless?
New Right - Good night. Past the threshold and should aim to consolidate the far right vote.
LA - Really bad. Almost missed threshold. Appear to have been a busted flush after voters see them as having achieved little in government.
Hardline - Narrowly missed threshold. Will worry that the New Right can considerate the far right vote.
CD - Disappointing, Missed threshold so could have been better but more than doubling their vote sets them up as being a serious party for winning seats next time.
KRP - Party has already been abolished. LOL.

[andrea]

Final

Social Democrats 25.93. (26.3 in 2015) - 48 seats (+1)

Denmark's Liberal Party 23.39 (19.5) - 43 seats (+9)

Danish People's Party 8.73 (21.1) - 16 seats (-21)

Danish Social Liberal Party 8.62 (4.6) - 16 seats (+8)

Socialist People's Party 7.71 (4.2) -14 seats (+7)

Red Green Alliance 6.93 (7.8). -13 seats (-1)

Conservative People's Party 6.61 (3.4) - 12 seats (+6)

The Alternative 2.95 (4.8) - 5 seats (-4)

The New Right 2.35 - 4 seats (+4)

Liberal Alliance 2.33 (7.5) - 4 seats (-9)

Hard Line 1.79 - 0 seats

Christian Democrats 1.73 (0.8). - 0 seats

[Devil Wincarnate]

Interesting to see the Conservatives back in a big way.  Especially as their official colour is chartreuse.  Anyone know why they have done so well?

[Toylyyev]

Jun 5, 2019 23:00:16 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Interesting to see the Conservatives back in a big way.  Especially as their official colour is chartreuse.  Anyone know why they have done so well?

The Danish People's Party lost 58% of their vote, the Alternative 38%, the Christian Democrat vote is up by 110% and the Conservative one by 98%, that looks like a pattern.

Mette Jacobsen is from a city that is as different from the capital as seems possible in Denmark. I have spent a few days roaming around Hanstholm waiting for the ferry to Bergen some time ago and the SD vote is up there, while it is down in Kopenhagen.

There is more outspoken expertise on urbanity (to use neutral terminology) than mine here i hasten to add.

[curiousliberal]

Pro-independence parties captured almost 80% of the vote in Greenland.

[Khunanup]

Hilariously awful reporting from the BBC on this last night on their News Channel. All talk about SD being the clear winners and the government of Venstre being at an end.

No a jot of mention that the SD vote actually went down a touch, not that Venstre's vote went up by more than a touch and certainly not that the Venstre led government is effectively ending (most likely) because it's coalition/confidence partners tanked (and that they were 'the extremists' in the context of the Danish right).

Dreadful stuff.

[John Chanin]

Jun 6, 2019 11:49:05 GMT Khunanup said:

Hilariously awful reporting from the BBC on this last night on their News Channel. All talk about SD being the clear winners and the government of Venstre being at an end.

No a jot of mention that the SD vote actually went down a touch, not that Venstre's vote went up by more than a touch and certainly not that the Venstre led government is effectively ending (most likely) because it's coalition/confidence partners tanked (and that they were 'the extremists' in the context of the Danish right).

Dreadful stuff.

For an organization with such resources, and several good foreign correspondents, it's amazing how bad the BBC always is with foreign elections.  They can just about cope with the USA, but anywhere else.....

To some degree it is the assumption that the audience knows fuck all, and they are therefore trying to put it into a "British  context" when there isn't a British context.

[greenhert]

Jun 6, 2019 12:39:35 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 6, 2019 11:49:05 GMT Khunanup said:

Hilariously awful reporting from the BBC on this last night on their News Channel. All talk about SD being the clear winners and the government of Venstre being at an end.

No a jot of mention that the SD vote actually went down a touch, not that Venstre's vote went up by more than a touch and certainly not that the Venstre led government is effectively ending (most likely) because it's coalition/confidence partners tanked (and that they were 'the extremists' in the context of the Danish right).

Dreadful stuff.

For an organization with such resources, and several good foreign correspondents, it's amazing how bad the BBC always is with foreign elections.  They can just about cope with the USA, but anywhere else.....

To some degree it is the assumption that the audience knows fuck all, and they are therefore trying to put it into a "British  context" when there isn't a British context.

Indeed. My solo analyses of international elections which I regularly share are better than the vast majority of British media reports on these elections. The problem is not many British people are particularly interested in non-British elections apart from the US Presidential election.

[jamie]

I think there’s a misunderstanding here. The Social Democrats strategy wasn’t that they were going to pile on masses of votes. Their strategy was to win back a load of anti-immigration left wingers from DPP in the knowledge that they would lose some pro-immigration left wingers to other left wing parties. This would result in no right wing majority being possible and only Mette able to become prime minister. It worked.

[Toylyyev]

Jun 6, 2019 15:14:29 GMT jamie said:

I think there’s a misunderstanding here. The Social Democrats strategy wasn’t that they were going to pile on masses of votes. Their strategy was to win back a load of anti-immigration left wingers from DPP in the knowledge that they would lose some pro-immigration left wingers to other left wing parties. This would result in no right wing majority being possible and only Mette able to become prime minister. It worked.

My lastest post to the EP thread which had been written up before noticing jamie's point also happens to shed some light on the issue from another angle. While the post upthread does hint at broader political intent than the described tactic, both aspects look complementary rather than contradictory to me.

[greenhert]

My analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2019/06/danish-general-election-of-2019-denmark.html

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 6, 2019 22:36:04 GMT greenhert said:

My analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2019/06/danish-general-election-of-2019-denmark.html

Was it really - considering the SD's new policy on immigration - "a turn back towards the progressivism"?