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Post by middleenglander on Dec 2, 2018 23:49:49 GMT
There are 12 by-elections during December:
* 4 on Thursday 6 December
* 1 on Wednesday 12 December
* 4 on Thursday 13 December
* 3 on Thursday 20 December
5 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 3 where the seat will be contested again in May 2019, 1 in May 2020 with no 2019 elections and 1 with 2019 elections but this seat not until 2022
2 are in Unitary Authorities, both with all out elections in May
2 are for County Councils last contested in 2017
2 are in Scotland, last contested in 2017
1 is for a London Borough last contest in May 2018
Conservatives defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 1 after a resignation
Labour defend 5 seats, 2 following a death and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 5 seats, 4 after a death and 1 resignation - although they do not contest one of these.
Conservatives are contesting all 12 seats, Labour and Liberal Democrats 10 each, Greens 7, UKIP 5, SNP 2 whilst the are 5 Independents contesting 4 seats
- along with 1 each for Ashfield Independents, Democrats & Veterans and Libertarian - a total of 54 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.
For the two Scottish by-elections a prediction is also required of the eventual winner. 5 additional faults will be awarded for an incorrect prediction of who tops the first preference votes and 5 for an incorrect eventual winner.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 2, 2018 23:51:45 GMT
My wife and I are away on the 6, 12 and 13 December. Will post official results as soon as possible after next Thursday but in may be Sunday 16 December for the second week of the month.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 4, 2018 20:49:05 GMT
HIGHLAND: SNP 24.7; Con 19.2; Ind Greene 14.3; Ind Davis 12.9; LD 12.7; Grn 9.7; Lab 4.5; UKIP 1.2; Libert 0.8 (Ind Greene to win on transfers)
LEICESTER: Lab 66.4; Con 19.8; LD 9.3; Grn 4.5
OXFORD: LD 64.7; Con 19.6; Lab 11.2; Grn 4.5
SURREY: Ind 39.8; Con 34.7; LD 20.7; UKIP 4.8
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 5, 2018 17:41:42 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Con 16, Lab 6, LD 16, Green 7, UKIP 0.5, SNP 27, Libertarian 0.5, Ind (Davis) 9, Ind (Greene) 18 - Ind (Greene) to win on transfers
Walgrave, Leicester: Con 19, Lab 67, LD 6, Green 8
Wolvercote, Oxford: Con 24, Lab 10, LD 58, Green 8
The Byfleets, Surrey: Con 38, LD 20, UKIP 2, Ind 40
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Post by jamesrodriguez on Dec 5, 2018 18:14:33 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Ind (Greene) 29, Con 17, SNP 17, LD 12, Ind (Davies) 10, Grn 6, Lab 6 UKIP 2.8, Libertarian 0.2- Ind (Greene) to win on transfers
Belgrave, Leicester: Lab 77, Con 14, LD 5, Grn 4
Wolvercote, Oxford: LD 67, Con 20, Lab 9, Grn 4
The Byfleets, Surrey: Ind 39, Con 35, LD 23, UKIP 3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 5, 2018 20:52:42 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Ind (Greene) 29, Con 17, SNP 17, LD 12, Ind (Davies) 10, Grn 6, Lab 6 UKIP 2.8, Libertarian 0.2- Ind (Greene) to win on transfers Belgrave, Leicester: Lab 77, Con 14, LD 5, Grn 4 Wolvercote, Oxford: LD 67, Con 20, Lab 9, Grn 4 The Byfleets, Surrey: Ind 39, Con 35, LD 23, UKIP 3 Welcome to the competition. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 5, 2018 21:06:50 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Con 20, Lab 5, LD 12, Green 6, UKIP 1, SNP 26, Libertarian 1, Ind (Davis) 15, Ind (Greene) 14 - Ind (Davis) to win on transfers
Walgrave, Leicester: Con 18, Lab 72, LD 6, Green 4
Wolvercote, Oxford: Con 24, Lab 8, LD 64, Green 4
The Byfleets, Surrey: Con 40, LD 17, UKIP 2, Ind 41
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Dec 5, 2018 21:36:35 GMT
Wester Ross... (Highland): SNP 23, IND (Greene) 17, LDM 15.5, CON 15, IND (Davis) 12, GRN 9, LAB 6, UKIP 2, LIB 0.5 // IND (GREENE) TO WIN ON TRANSFERS
Walgrave (Leicester): LAB 68, CON 20, LDM 8, GRN 4
Wolvercote (Oxford): LDM 65, CON 22, LAB 9, GRN 4
The Byfleets (Surrey): IND 39, CON 36, LDM 21, UKIP 4
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Post by jamesrodriguez on Dec 5, 2018 21:56:07 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Ind (Greene) 29, Con 17, SNP 17, LD 12, Ind (Davies) 10, Grn 6, Lab 6 UKIP 2.8, Libertarian 0.2- Ind (Greene) to win on transfers Belgrave, Leicester: Lab 77, Con 14, LD 5, Grn 4 Wolvercote, Oxford: LD 67, Con 20, Lab 9, Grn 4 The Byfleets, Surrey: Ind 39, Con 35, LD 23, UKIP 3 Welcome to the competition. Thank you. I decided that after two years on this forum I should do something! |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 5, 2018 22:04:57 GMT
WESTER ROSS
We have cast our postal votes for the Conservative and after mature reflection voted Solely Conservative as no transfers made any sense to us. I know others who have done the same. Why are some of you so sure the Ind (former LD) will pick up so many transfers? Her being Ind and of onetime LD persuasion? I confess I have little idea how this will go but I hope the supporters of the major players don't indicate any transfers.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 5, 2018 22:32:03 GMT
HIGHLAND Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh: SNP 27, C 24, Ind Greene 22, L Dem 10, SGP 7, Ind Davis 5, Lab 4, UKIP 1, Lbt 0. Ind Greene to win after transfers.
LEICESTER Belgrave: Lab 74, C 17, L Dem 6, GP 3
OXFORD Wolvercote: L Dem 67, C 20, Lab 8, GP 5
SURREY The Byfleets: C 42, Ind 37, L Dem 14, UKIP 7
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2018 22:35:27 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: Con 20, Lab 5, LD 15, Green 10, UKIP 1, SNP 30, Libertarian 1, Ind (Davis) 10, Ind (Greene) 10 - SNP to win on transfers
Belgrave, Leicester: Con 20, Lab 65, LD 10, Green 5
Wolvercote, Oxford: Con 20, Lab 10, LD 60, Green 10
The Byfleets, Surrey: Con 35, LD 20, UKIP 5, Ind 40
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Post by andrewp on Dec 5, 2018 22:54:04 GMT
Highland, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Localsh SNP 28, Con 20, Ind greene 18, LD 13, Ind Davis 9, Lab 7, Green 3, UKIP 1, Libertarian 1. Ind Greene to win
Leicester, Belgrave Lab 70, Con 15, Lib Dem 11, Green 4
Oxford, Wolvercote LIb dem 61, Con 20. Lab 13, Green 6
Surrey, The Byfleets Ind 41, Con 38, Lib Dem 18, UKIP 3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 5, 2018 22:57:07 GMT
WESTER ROSS We have cast our postal votes for the Conservative and after mature reflection voted Solely Conservative as no transfers made any sense to us. I know others who have done the same. Why are some of you so sure the Ind (former LD) will pick up so many transfers? Her being Ind and of onetime LD persuasion? I confess I have little idea how this will go but I hope the supporters of the major players don't indicate any transfers. Only 1 person has predicted the ex-LD to win so far  |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 6, 2018 0:02:43 GMT
Highland UA, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Localsh (1st preference votes): SNP 27, Independent (Greene) 22, Conservative 20, Independent (Davis) 10, Green 9, Liberal Democrats 5, Labour 5, UKIP 1.5, Libertarian 0.5. Independent (Greene) to win on transfers.
Leicester UA, Belgrave: Labour 66, Conservative 19, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 6.
Oxford BC, Wolvercote: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 21, Labour 12, Green 7.
Surrey CC, The Byfleets: Independent (Boote) 39, Conservative 36, Liberal Democrats 20, UKIP 5.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Dec 6, 2018 0:51:18 GMT
Will take a break this month as lots going on personally. Good luck to all pundits with more stamina than me
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 6, 2018 0:57:42 GMT
Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh, Highland: SNP 23, Ind (G) 22, Con 18, LD 12, Ind (D) 9, Grn 6, Lab 5, UKIP 3, Libertarian 2. SNP to lead on first prefs. Ind (G) to win on transfers
Belgrave, Leicester: Lab 70, Con 17, LD 8, Grn 5
Wolvercote, Oxford: LD 64, Con 20, Lab 10, Grn 6
The Byfleets, Surrey: Con 35, Ind 32, LD 26, UKIP 7
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 6, 2018 5:23:29 GMT
Leicester, Walgrave: Con 16, Lab 72, LD 8, Green 4
Oxford, Wolvercote: Con 19, Lab 9, LD 66, Green 6
Surrey, The Byfleets: Con 36, LD 26, Ind 33, UKIP 5
Highland, Wester Ross,Strathpeffer & Lochalsh: SNP to win on transfers
Con 18, Lab 7, LD 7.5, Green 6, SNP 30, UKIP 1, Ind (Greene) 20, Ind (Davis) 10, Libertarian 0.5
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 6, 2018 5:28:20 GMT
WESTER ROSS We have cast our postal votes for the Conservative and after mature reflection voted Solely Conservative as no transfers made any sense to us. I know others who have done the same. Why are some of you so sure the Ind (former LD) will pick up so many transfers? Her being Ind and of onetime LD persuasion? I confess I have little idea how this will go but I hope the supporters of the major players don't indicate any transfers. If you are typical (but then I don't suppose you are) this could give the seat to the SNP, which is my forecast anyway. |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 6, 2018 5:33:44 GMT
Welcome to the competition. Thank you. I decided that after two years on this forum I should do something! Yes, welcome to the competition, and I had been going to say welcome to the Forum until I read that and realised you have been a member a lot longer than me |
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