|
|
Post by middleenglander on Dec 15, 2018 22:56:17 GMT
Week 2| Authority | Ashfield | Dumfries &
Galloway | Haringey | Harlow | Middlesbrough | Week 2 | Week 2 | | Ward | Sutton Junction
& Harlow Wood
| Dee & Glenkens | West Green | Toddbrook | Brambles &
Thorntree | faults | position | andrewp | 81.8 | 34.4+5 | 31.2 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 175.7 | 2nd | David Boothroyd | 89.8 | 48.9+10 | 30.3 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 199.0 | 6th | electionmapsUK | 77.8 | 33.7+2+5 | 37.2 | 14.1 | 18.2 | 188.0 | 4th | greenrobinhood | 101.8 | 25.0 | 31.2 | 15.3 | 45.3 | 218.6 | 8th | hempie | 160
| 34.4+5 | 35.2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 256.2 | 11th | jamesrodriguez | 130.8+10 | 20.4 | 7.2 | 21.8 | 16.7 | 207.0 | 7th | | Peterl | 160
| 36.4+5 | 35.3 | 15.3 | 37.5 | 289.5 | 12th | priceofdawn | 123.8+10 | 27.7+5 | 45.2 | 9.6 | 14.2 | 235.5 | 9th | Right Leaning | 79.8 | 42.4+10 | 33.2 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 187.4 | 3rd | robbienicoll | 95.8 | 40.4+5 | 29.2 | 22.8+1 | 44.0 | 238.2 | 10th | Robert Waller | 69.8 | 28.9+5 | 35.2 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 154.7 | 1st | Tony Otim | 143.6+0.2+10 | 41.6+10 | 41.8 | 19.2 | 31.1 | 297.5 | 13th | Yellow Peril | 83.8 | 35.9+1+5 | 39.2 | 17.8 | 7.8 | 190.6 | 5th | Total faults | 1,398.6+0.2+30 | 450.5+3+70 | 431.4 | 189.2+1 | 264.0 | 2,837.9 |
|
The penalty for failing to submit an entry is normally 100 faults as this is normally a sufficient disadvantage given most predictions. However the result for Ashfield, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood was somewhat exceptional against the predictions and I consider 160 faults to be justified so that there is still a small disadvantage compared to the highest faults incurred by those submitting a prediction. If I had awarded just 100 faults, hempie would have come 6th rather than 11th and petrel 10th rather than 12th.
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Dec 16, 2018 0:34:38 GMT
Weeks 1 & 2
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Weeks 1 & 2 | Weeks 1& 2 |
| faults | faults | faults | position | andrewp | 99.3 | 175.7 | 275.0 | 2nd | Casual Observer | 132.6 | 560 | 692.6 | 15th | David Boothroyd | 98.1 | 199.0 | 297.1 | 4th | electionmapsUK | 113.3 | 188.0 | 301.4 | 5th | greenrobinhood | 103.6 | 218.6 | 322.2 | 7th | hempie | 119.7 | 256.2 | 375.9 | 11th | jamesrodriguez | 120.3 | 207.0 | 327.3 | 8th | Olympian95 | 107.6 | 560 | 667.6 | 13th | | peterl | 400 | 289.5 | 689.5 | 14th | priceofdawn | 103.7 | 235.5 | 339.3 | 9th | Right Leaning | 95.3 | 187.4 | 282.7 | 3rd | robbienicoll | 108.3 | 238.2 | 346.5 | 10th | Robert Waller | 96.6 | 154.7 | 251.3 | 1st | Tony Otim | 107.2 | 297.5 | 404.7 | 12th | Yellow Peril | 112.3 | 190.6 | 302.8 | 6th | Total faults | 1,917.9 | 3,957.9 | 5,875.8 |
|
Objections please by 9.00 am Tuesday. There are 3 by-elections next week, the last during this year. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Dec 16, 2018 8:13:50 GMT
Week 2| Authority | Ashfield | Dumfries &
Galloway | Haringey | Harlow | Middlesbrough | Week 2 | Week 2 | | Ward | Sutton Junction
& Harlow Wood
| Dee & Glenkens | West Green | Toddbrook | Brambles &
Thorntree | faults | position | andrewp | 81.8 | 34.4+5 | 31.2 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 175.7 | 2nd | David Boothroyd | 89.8 | 48.9+10 | 30.3 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 199.0 | 6th | electionmapsUK | 77.8 | 33.7+2+5 | 37.2 | 14.1 | 18.2 | 188.0 | 4th | greenrobinhood | 101.8 | 25.0 | 31.2 | 15.3 | 45.3 | 218.6 | 8th | hempie | 160
| 34.4+5 | 35.2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 256.2 | 11th | jamesrodriguez | 130.8+10 | 20.4 | 7.2 | 21.8 | 16.7 | 207.0 | 7th | | Peterl | 160
| 36.4+5 | 35.3 | 15.3 | 37.5 | 289.5 | 12th | priceofdawn | 123.8+10 | 27.7+5 | 45.2 | 9.6 | 14.2 | 235.5 | 9th | Right Leaning | 79.8 | 42.4+10 | 33.2 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 187.4 | 3rd | robbienicoll | 95.8 | 40.4+5 | 29.2 | 22.8+1 | 44.0 | 238.2 | 10th | Robert Waller | 69.8 | 28.9+5 | 35.2 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 154.7 | 1st | Tony Otim | 143.6+0.2+10 | 41.6+10 | 41.8 | 19.2 | 31.1 | 297.5 | 13th | Yellow Peril | 83.8 | 35.9+1+5 | 39.2 | 17.8 | 7.8 | 190.6 | 5th | Total faults | 1,398.6+0.2+30 | 450.5+3+70 | 431.4 | 189.2+1 | 264.0 | 2,837.9 |
|
The penalty for failing to submit an entry is normally 100 faults as this is normally a sufficient disadvantage given most predictions. However the result for Ashfield, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood was somewhat exceptional against the predictions and I consider 160 faults to be justified so that there is still a small disadvantage compared to the highest faults incurred by those submitting a prediction. If I had awarded just 100 faults, hempie would have come 6th rather than 11th and petrel 10th rather than 12th. Thank you as always for all the hard work, and at a busy time at present especially. It is appreciated. And for the judgement to increase the penalty for non-submission in the Ashfield election, a particularly problematic case. I would be interested to know if there were any precedents for that decision . I know it hasn't always applied- I know I have managed to get over 100 points in the past without that happening? |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Dec 17, 2018 0:49:46 GMT
When the competition first started anyone not posting by 09.00.59 seconds on the day was eliminated. The time penalties were quickly introduced along with 100 faults for not posting a particular by-election or by-elections. That worked well for a time but occasions did occur where the result was so unexpected that some got over 100 faults with few, if any, getting less than 75. Here it was thought that the faults should not be capped at 100 as it gave an advantage to those whose predictions were at the top end of way out.
I do not think we have had an example of someone in contention for a placing not posting one by-election when the result was way, way out of expectation. If the Thursday by-elections had been missed capping at 100 for 4 by-elections would have put anyone out of contention for the month. Missing just this one by-election when the faults for all those who made a prediction ranged from almost 70 to nearly 150 may have been inadvertently beneficial and could have resulted in being placed undeservedly well up the leader board.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Dec 19, 2018 12:56:39 GMT
Charnwood: Con 65; Lab 35
Cumbria: LD 55.3; Con 34.1; Grn 6.1; Lab 4.5
South Lakeland: LD 53.1; Con 36.3; Grn 6.9; Lab 3.7
|
|
|
|
Post by jamesrodriguez on Dec 19, 2018 17:35:47 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey: Con 67, Lab 33
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: LD 59, Con 35, Grn 3, Lab 3
South Lakeland, Arnside and Milnthorpe: LD 50, Con 39, Grn 5, Lab 4
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2018 17:38:34 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey: Con 66, Lab 34
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: LD 50, Con 40, Grn 5, Lab 5
South Lakeland, Arnside and Milnthorpe: LD 45, Con 30, Grn 5, Lab 10
|
|
|
|
Post by robbienicoll on Dec 19, 2018 19:16:52 GMT
Anstey, Charnwood: Con 62, Lab 38
Kent Estuary, Cumbria: Con 36, Lab 4, LD 54, Green 6
Arnside and Milnthorpe, South Lakeland: Con 31, Lab 6, LD 54, Green 9
|
|
peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
|
Post by peterl on Dec 19, 2018 22:45:24 GMT
Anstey, Charnwood: Con 58, Lab 42
Kent Estuary, Cumbria: LD 56, Con 33, Green 6, Lab 5
Arnside and Milnthorpe, South Lakeland: LD 50, Con 35, Green 10, Lab 5
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Dec 19, 2018 23:41:01 GMT
Charnwood DC, Anstey: Conservative 60, Labour 40.
Cumbria CC, Kent Estuary: Liberal Democrats 57, Conservative 33, Green 5, Labour 5.
South Lakeland DC, Arnside & Milnthorpe: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 36, Green 8, Labour 5.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 19, 2018 23:42:33 GMT
CHARNWOOD Anstey: C 61, Lab 39
CUMBRIA Kent Estuary: L Dem 65, C 24, Lab 6, GP 5
SOUTH LAKELAND Arnside and Milnthorpe: L Dem 65, C 24, Lab 6, GP 5
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Dec 20, 2018 0:06:15 GMT
Charnwood DC, Anstey: Conservative 64, Labour 36.
Cumbria CC, Kent Estuary: Liberal Democrats 56, Conservative 35, Green 5, Labour 4.
South Lakeland DC, Arnside & Milnthorpe: Liberal Democrats 58, Conservative 33, Green 5, Labour 4.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Dec 20, 2018 1:23:37 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey: Con 65, Lab 35
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: Con 35, Lab 5, LD 55, Green 5
South Lakeland, Arnside & Milnthorpe: Con 31, Lab 5, LD 59, Green 5
|
|
|
|
Post by Right Leaning on Dec 20, 2018 7:41:30 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey: Con 68, Lab 32
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: LD 51, Con 38, Gn 6, Lab 5
South Lakeland, Arnside and Milnthorpe: LD 54, Con 34, Lab 8, Gn 4,
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Dec 20, 2018 7:46:37 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey Con 64, Lab 36
Cumbria, Kent Estuary LIb Dem 55, Con 35, Lab 5, Green 5
South Lakeland, Arnside and Milnthorpe Lib Dem 54, Con 36, Lab 5, Green 5
|
|
|
|
Post by hempie on Dec 20, 2018 8:32:03 GMT
Charnwood, Anstey: Con 67, Lab 33
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: LD 54, Con 33, Lab 9, Green 4
South Lakeland, Arnside & Milnthorpe: LD 64, Con 27, Lab 5, Green 4
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Dec 20, 2018 9:11:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by ElectionMapsUK on Dec 20, 2018 15:29:19 GMT
Am I too late? Even if I am, my prediction anyway is:
Anstey: CON 63, LAB 37
Kent Estuary: LDM 51, CON 34, LAB 9, GRN 6
Arnside: LDM 53, CON 32, GRN 9, LAB 6
|
|
yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 776
|
Post by yorkshireluke on Dec 20, 2018 17:49:13 GMT
Am I too late? Even if I am, my prediction anyway is: Anstey: CON 63, LAB 37 Kent Estuary: LDM 51, CON 34, LAB 9, GRN 6 Arnside: LDM 53, CON 32, GRN 9, LAB 6 Didn't know you did this now, will have to make a return next year so I can fight my corner. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Dec 20, 2018 19:02:28 GMT
13 entrants this week although ElectionMapsUK get 3 x 50 additional faults for posting late at almost 3.30 pm. James Rodriguez get 2 additional faults for adding to just 98% in South Lakeland, Arnside & Milnthorpe whilst priceofdawn gets 10 additional faults for adding to 90% in the same by-election.
Charnwood, Anstey: Conservative share from 58% (peterl) to 68% (Right Leaning)
Cumbria, Kent Estuary: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative from 10% (priceofdawn) to 41% (David Boothroyd)
South Lakeland, Arnside & Milnthorpe: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative from 11% (James Rodriguez) to 41% (David Boothroyd)
|
|
