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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 3, 2018 9:12:12 GMT
There are numerous safe LibDem seats in the south west where they are the main/only opposition to the Tories. Sadly we are quite capable of falling away even in these places. We start from a higher baseline, but hard work is still fundamentally a large part of why we get elected. Conversely, there are several Labour and Tory seats which are only held thanks to the hard work of the incumbent councillor. I don’t think anyone would deny that (Birmingham seems an excellent case in point - Sutton Vesey vs Kingstanding), but this hard work is a reason for the election of a far higher proportion of Lib Dem councillors. This doesn’t mean we necessarily have ‘better’ councillors - just that we generally have to work harder at the ‘community champion’ part of the job. I'm not sure about that. it's a lot easier for someone to hold a ward based on them being a hardworking councillor if their politics are broadly in the centre. If a Conservative happened to be elected to a London council estate ward, or a Labour candidate was elected to a ward containing private housing estates in Surrey, they would have to be completely exceptional to keep their seat by appealing across parties. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 9:31:13 GMT
Sadly we are quite capable of falling away even in these places. We start from a higher baseline, but hard work is still fundamentally a large part of why we get elected. I don’t think anyone would deny that (Birmingham seems an excellent case in point - Sutton Vesey vs Kingstanding), but this hard work is a reason for the election of a far higher proportion of Lib Dem councillors. This doesn’t mean we necessarily have ‘better’ councillors - just that we generally have to work harder at the ‘community champion’ part of the job. I'm not sure about that. it's a lot easier for someone to hold a ward based on them being a hardworking councillor if their politics are broadly in the centre. If a Conservative happened to be elected to a London council estate ward, or a Labour candidate was elected to a ward containing private housing estates in Surrey, they would have to be completely exceptional to keep their seat by appealing across parties. from my experience I have yet to meet a voter who cares about whether your left wing, ring wing or centre. Being left wing doesnt get your highways resurfaced. Being right wing doesn't make your buses run on time. Being centre doesn't get you your disabled parking space. I went with my mum to visit a couple in the conservation area. They lost a dormer on appeal. They wanted mum's help they probably don't know or care she's a corbynite. |
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2018 10:37:54 GMT
Given the lack of a UKIP candidate with 24% of the vote last time and so much effort that's a pretty disappointing Tory performance for them. I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there.LibDems put a squeeze on in a ward where Labour have never stood any chance, I doubt if they will be losing too much sleep over that. (it certainly doesn't tell us much about Labour's chances next year in the council generally) |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 3, 2018 16:45:29 GMT
Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 For the last 10 years: Last year (Nov 23), in Perth City South (Perth and Kinross), SNP got 1780 votes and Conservatives 1734. In 2014 (Nov 20), in Peninsula (Medway), UKIP got 2850 votes and Conservatives 1965. In 2011 (Nov 10), in Sparkbrook (Birmingham), Labour got 3932 votes and Respect got 2301. In 2008, (Nov 6), in Forth (Edinburgh), Labour got 2013 votes and SNP 1841 AND in Bailleston (Glasgow), Labour got 2257 votes and SNP 2027. The Medway ward is in the Rochester and Strood constituency and was on the same day as the parliamentary by-election. The other three are all city-based wards with large electorates - and three of them are in Scotland where the electoral system is different. Denby Dale ward also has a large electorate despite being quite a rural area; if it hadn't ended up in a metropolitan county there would almost certainly be more than one ward covering this area. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 3, 2018 17:40:11 GMT
For the last 10 years: Last year (Nov 23), in Perth City South (Perth and Kinross), SNP got 1780 votes and Conservatives 1734. In 2014 (Nov 20), in Peninsula (Medway), UKIP got 2850 votes and Conservatives 1965. In 2011 (Nov 10), in Sparkbrook (Birmingham), Labour got 3932 votes and Respect got 2301. In 2008, (Nov 6), in Forth (Edinburgh), Labour got 2013 votes and SNP 1841 AND in Bailleston (Glasgow), Labour got 2257 votes and SNP 2027. The Medway ward is in the Rochester and Stood constituency and was on the same day as the parliamentary by-election. The other three are all city-based wards with large electorates - and three of them are in Scotland where the electoral system is different. Denby Dale ward also has a large electorate despite being quite a rural area; if it hadn't ended up in a metropolitan county there would almost certainly be more than one ward covering this area. Denny Dale must be one of the more ‘rural’ Met Borough wards. Thinking about all the met Boroughs, a lot of the most relatively rural wards seem to be a consequence of the boundaries in West Yorkshire. Would Harewood ward in Leeds be the most rural/‘ village’ Met Borough Ward? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 3, 2018 18:08:32 GMT
If you take population density as the keynote for "rural" (which isn't strictly accurate), the top ten from Census 2011 are:
1. Calderdale, Calder 1.20
2. Barnsley, Penistone East 1.27
3. Doncaster, Stainforth and Moorends 1.27
4. Doncaster, Torne Valley 1.30
5. Doncaster, Sprotbrough 1.49
6. Barnsley, Penistone West 1.50
7. Leeds, Harewood 1.74
8. Bromley, Darwin 1.76
9. Sheffield, Stannington 1.82
10. Calderdale, Ryburn 1.94
Denby Dale is 36th on the list (out of 1,447). Population density 3.98.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 3, 2018 18:19:06 GMT
If you take population density as the keynote for "rural" (which isn't strictly accurate), the top ten from Census 2011 are: 1. Calderdale, Calder 1.20 2. Barnsley, Penistone East 1.27 3. Doncaster, Stainforth and Moorends 1.27 4. Doncaster, Torne Valley 1.30 5. Doncaster, Sprotbrough 1.49 6. Barnsley, Penistone West 1.50 7. Leeds, Harewood 1.74 8. Bromley, Darwin 1.76 9. Sheffield, Stannington 1.82 10. Calderdale, Ryburn 1.94 Denby Dale is 36th on the list (out of 1,447). Population density 3.98. Do you know which is the largest met ward by area? Is it one of those? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 3, 2018 18:25:35 GMT
If you take population density as the keynote for "rural" (which isn't strictly accurate), the top ten from Census 2011 are: 1. Calderdale, Calder 1.20 2. Barnsley, Penistone East 1.27 3. Doncaster, Stainforth and Moorends 1.27 4. Doncaster, Torne Valley 1.30 5. Doncaster, Sprotbrough 1.49 6. Barnsley, Penistone West 1.50 7. Leeds, Harewood 1.74 8. Bromley, Darwin 1.76 9. Sheffield, Stannington 1.82 10. Calderdale, Ryburn 1.94 Denby Dale is 36th on the list (out of 1,447). Population density 3.98. Do you know which is the largest met ward by area? Is it one of those? In 2011, it was Stainforth and Moorends at 10,654 hectares, narrowly pipping Harewood which was 10,563 hectares. |
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 3, 2018 19:11:59 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results: Labour gain: 1,834 Will Simpson (LAB) 1,689 Paula Kemp (CON) 289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM) 116 Isabel Walters (GREEN) That is a good sound Labour performance. A stronger showing by the Greens and no LD would have left us with a shout, No LD earlier this year and that has made all the difference. Agreed. Unfortunately for you the Lib Dems ran a vigorous campaign (as many lamp post boards as the two main parties), while the greens took their foot off the pedal after spoiling the result in May. Our candidate also had the advantage of name recognition, having been campaigning for 6/10 months this year; a list of Labour promises and more importantly ’Will’ promises already drawn up and aggressively re-targeted for the by-election. For these reasons I would still classify the area as ’lean conservative’ in American terms and suspect it votes blue by a factor of around 60% in general elections. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 3, 2018 19:16:13 GMT
If you take population density as the keynote for "rural" (which isn't strictly accurate), the top ten from Census 2011 are: 1. Calderdale, Calder 1.20 2. Barnsley, Penistone East 1.27 3. Doncaster, Stainforth and Moorends 1.27 4. Doncaster, Torne Valley 1.30 5. Doncaster, Sprotbrough 1.49 6. Barnsley, Penistone West 1.50 7. Leeds, Harewood 1.74 8. Bromley, Darwin 1.76 9. Sheffield, Stannington 1.82 10. Calderdale, Ryburn 1.94 Denby Dale is 36th on the list (out of 1,447). Population density 3.98. The fact that Calder ward is at the top of that list rather proves David's point about population density and rural not being the same thing. Calder is the ward with Hebden Bridge in it. However Penistone East is probably the best answer for the original question: it's a sprawling ward of tiny villages. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 6, 2018 22:31:21 GMT
If Lib Dem councillor does not work hard with the voters he or she does not get re-elected. I am not saying they are any more effective at council business of course. All political parties only really work in marginal seats (at either local or national level), but all seats they hold are marginal for the Lib Dems. ha I wish that were true. I grew up with 3 Lib Dem cllrs all my life. Some of them do work hard. The others got elected because they are lib dems in the safest lib dem ward in the south eastI don;t think that description holds up. You don't have to go very far to find a consistently safer ward in Oxhey not to mention several other wards in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Maidstone... |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 22:37:09 GMT
ha I wish that were true. I grew up with 3 Lib Dem cllrs all my life. Some of them do work hard. The others got elected because they are lib dems in the safest lib dem ward in the south eastI don;t think that description holds up. You don't have to go very far to find a consistently safer ward in Oxhey not to mention several other wards in Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Maidstone... tbf my campaign coordinator might have just said that to cheer me up after I got battered by the lib dems |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 6, 2018 22:46:00 GMT
I'm not sure about that. it's a lot easier for someone to hold a ward based on them being a hardworking councillor if their politics are broadly in the centre. If a Conservative happened to be elected to a London council estate ward, or a Labour candidate was elected to a ward containing private housing estates in Surrey, they would have to be completely exceptional to keep their seat by appealing across parties. from my experience I have yet to meet a voter who cares about whether your left wing, ring wing or centre. Being left wing doesnt get your highways resurfaced. Being right wing doesn't make your buses run on time. Being centre doesn't get you your disabled parking space. I went with my mum to visit a couple in the conservation area. They lost a dormer on appeal. They wanted mum's help they probably don't know or care she's a corbynite. I know a lady in New Greens who is so right-wing she makes me and carlton look like a pair of hand-wringing liberals but who told me she voted for your mother in (I think) the 2011 by-election (which was before we started fielding candidates there) because she said she was a good local councillor. I don't know if she has done so in the more recent contests which had no UKIP candidate but it's possible as she has no love for the Conservatives and she's basically insane. I suppose it's how it should be in local elections, but not something I would do - certainly not for a Labour candidate and not even for your mate Sandy Walkington who is purportedly a good councillor  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 22:59:00 GMT
from my experience I have yet to meet a voter who cares about whether your left wing, ring wing or centre. Being left wing doesnt get your highways resurfaced. Being right wing doesn't make your buses run on time. Being centre doesn't get you your disabled parking space. I went with my mum to visit a couple in the conservation area. They lost a dormer on appeal. They wanted mum's help they probably don't know or care she's a corbynite. I know a lady in New Greens who is so right-wing she makes me and carlton look like a pair of hand-wringing liberals but who told me she voted for your mother in (I think) the 2011 by-election (which was before we started fielding candidates there) because she said she was a good local councillor. I don't know if she has done so in the more recent contests which had no UKIP candidate but it's possible as she has no love for the Conservatives and she's basically insane. I suppose it's how it should be in local elections, but not something I would do - certainly not for a Labour candidate and not even for your mate Sandy Walkington who is purportedly a good councillor I may have met her in my time. I have met a few who match that description. I've never had to ask Sandy for anything as he's never been my councillor and I don't know anyone he has done casework for so I'll have to take your word for it. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 7, 2018 20:09:18 GMT
Sadly we are quite capable of falling away even in these places. We start from a higher baseline, but hard work is still fundamentally a large part of why we get elected. I don’t think anyone would deny that (Birmingham seems an excellent case in point - Sutton Vesey vs Kingstanding), but this hard work is a reason for the election of a far higher proportion of Lib Dem councillors. This doesn’t mean we necessarily have ‘better’ councillors - just that we generally have to work harder at the ‘community champion’ part of the job. I'm not sure about that. it's a lot easier for someone to hold a ward based on them being a hardworking councillor if their politics are broadly in the centre. If a Conservative happened to be elected to a London council estate ward, or a Labour candidate was elected to a ward containing private housing estates in Surrey, they would have to be completely exceptional to keep their seat by appealing across parties. Of course it is much easier for a Lib Dem to hold a right-leaning ward than a Labour Councillor, or a left-leaning ward than a Tory Councillor. That is not the point at all. The point is that many Labour councillors get in time after time in left-leaning wards without any significant engagement with voters, and the same with Tories in the shires. A hard working Lib Dem can carry a couple of others in a Met ward but in general without continual hard work Lib Dems quickly lose their seats in current circumstances.. This Sandy Walkington is clearly big on voter engagement even if he may not achieve all he promises.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 7, 2018 20:12:18 GMT
That is a good sound Labour performance. A stronger showing by the Greens and no LD would have left us with a shout, No LD earlier this year and that has made all the difference. Agreed. Unfortunately for you the Lib Dems ran a vigorous campaign (as many lamp post boards as the two main parties), while the greens took their foot off the pedal after spoiling the result in May. Our candidate also had the advantage of name recognition, having been campaigning for 6/10 months this year; a list of Labour promises and more importantly ’Will’ promises already drawn up and aggressively re-targeted for the by-election. For these reasons I would still classify the area as ’lean conservative’ in American terms and suspect it votes blue by a factor of around 60% in general elections. The lib Dems mounted a very restricted campaign actually (although infinitely more than any campaign in living memory), and lamp posts don't vote... I would go with the idea that the Lib Dem campaign took more Tory than Labour votes though.. |
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 7, 2018 22:20:05 GMT
Agreed. Unfortunately for you the Lib Dems ran a vigorous campaign (as many lamp post boards as the two main parties), while the greens took their foot off the pedal after spoiling the result in May. Our candidate also had the advantage of name recognition, having been campaigning for 6/10 months this year; a list of Labour promises and more importantly ’Will’ promises already drawn up and aggressively re-targeted for the by-election. For these reasons I would still classify the area as ’lean conservative’ in American terms and suspect it votes blue by a factor of around 60% in general elections. The lib Dems mounted a very restricted campaign actually (although infinitely more than any campaign in living memory), and lamp posts don't vote... I would go with the idea that the Lib Dem campaign took more Tory than Labour votes though.. The illusion of a vigorous campaign then 😉 Maybe I should've qualified with ’relatively’ |
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