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Post by edgbaston on Nov 2, 2018 11:04:57 GMT
Is it too early to start drinking 🌹🌹🌹
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Post by borisminor on Nov 2, 2018 11:08:40 GMT
A relatively strong gain for Labour, a bigger margin of victory than I expected. Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 Yes - 4.00% swing (always like it when swings are round numbers.)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,525
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 2, 2018 11:08:54 GMT
Is it too early to start drinking 🌹🌹🌹 Were you involved in this one?
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Nov 2, 2018 11:19:28 GMT
Decent result for Labour in Denby Dale. Looking at the results in the ward going back to 2004, the results have been a fairly good replication of the Labour v Con position nationally.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,163
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 2, 2018 11:32:09 GMT
A relatively strong gain for Labour, a bigger margin of victory than I expected. Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 Never going to be a win for us, but good to knock the Greens into fourth.
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 2, 2018 11:34:46 GMT
Is it too early to start drinking 🌹🌹🌹 Were you involved in this one? I did my bit. A cross borough effort.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 2, 2018 11:43:22 GMT
Kirklees, Denby Dale - Labour gain from Conservative Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | Labour | 1,834 | 46.7% | +3.8% | -1.7% | +16.0% | +7.1% | Conservative | 1,689 | 43.0% | -4.2% | -2.7% | -0.9% | -0.8% | Liberal Democrat | 289 | 7.4% | +4.6% | +1.5% | +3.1% | +3.6% | Green | 116 | 3.0% | -4.2% | from nowhere | -4.1% | -9.9% | UKIP |
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| -14.1% |
| Total votes | 3,928 |
| 72% | 72% | 42% | 77% |
Swing Conservative to labour 4% since May, ½% since 2016, 8½% since 2015 and 4% since 2014 Council now 38 Labour, 18 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 2 Independent Newham, Boleyn - Labour hold Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2015 B | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | Labour | 1,725 | 74.8% | +2.8% | +1.2% | +2.7% | +10.6% | +10.8% | Conservative | 327 | 14.2% | -3.5% | -0.5% | +5.6% | -6.8% | -6.5% | Green | 172 | 7.5% | -2.9% | -4.2% | +1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 83 | 3.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -5.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -3.9% |
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| Independent |
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| -0.5% |
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| TUSC |
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| -8.3% | -8.7% | Christian Peoples |
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| -6.5% | -6.7% | Total votes | 2,307 |
| 59% | 67% | 116% | 56% | 58% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~3¼% / ¾% since May and ~ 8¾ since 2014 but Labour to Conservative, if meaningful, ~ 1½% since 2015 by-election
Council now 60 Labour + Elected Mayor
South Gloucestershire, Dodington - Liberal Democrat hold
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 693 | 49.3% | +8.4% | +8.6% | -7.6% | -14.9% | -15.3% | Conservative | 554 | 39.4% | +16.8% | +17.3% | +29.4% | +17.8% | +18.1% | Labour | 158 | 11.3% | -1.6% | -0.7% | -6.3% | -2.8% | -2.8% | UKIP |
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| -23.7% | -25.2% | -15.4% |
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| Total | 1,405 |
| 36% | 39% | 102% | 67% | 68% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 4¼% / 4½% since 2015, 18½% (if meaningful) since 2012 by-election and 16¼% / 16¾% since 2011 Council now 40 Conservative, 16 Liberal Democrat, 14 Labour
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2018 12:41:45 GMT
Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 Never going to be a win for us, but good to knock the Greens into fourth. Obviously,the churn was more complicated than this,but what it looks like is 2 competitions going on here -the one for first place between Lab and Con, and the one for third place between LD and Green. In each case there was a 3-4% swing and a change of position, in favour of Lab on the top bunk and Lib Dems on the bottom bunk.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2018 13:02:28 GMT
Is it too early to start drinking 🌹🌹🌹 Possibly some Brewdog "Nanny State" ? - only 0.5%
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European Lefty
Labour
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 2, 2018 13:35:38 GMT
Is it too early to start drinking 🌹🌹🌹 Possibly some Brewdog "Nanny State" ? - only 0.5% Yet surprisingly nice.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Nov 2, 2018 14:28:29 GMT
A relatively strong gain for Labour, a bigger margin of victory than I expected. Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 For the last 10 years: Last year (Nov 23), in Perth City South (Perth and Kinross), SNP got 1780 votes and Conservatives 1734. In 2014 (Nov 20), in Peninsula (Medway), UKIP got 2850 votes and Conservatives 1965. In 2011 (Nov 10), in Sparkbrook (Birmingham), Labour got 3932 votes and Respect got 2301. In 2008, (Nov 6), in Forth (Edinburgh), Labour got 2013 votes and SNP 1841 AND in Bailleston (Glasgow), Labour got 2257 votes and SNP 2027.
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 2, 2018 14:36:52 GMT
I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there. Not really. If you look at the comparison to the last time UKIP didn’t stand (2011) the Conservatives are up 18%. It’s not always the case that UKIP votes are automatically there for the picking for the Conservatives, and that was one of the reasons that the 2017 general election didn’t go as planned for them. There are plenty of voters in South West England who would have voted Lib Dem historically and then switched to UKIP, and many will now vote Lib Dem again. Of course there is some switching between UKIP and Lib Dem at local level. But I am pretty sure more than 50% of the former kippers will have voted Con in this case where politics is divided between Brexiting Tories and Lib Dem "enemies of the people" Comparing things with 2011 when there was a Lib Dem MP here is also quite misleading.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2018 14:58:49 GMT
Possibly some Brewdog "Nanny State" ? - only 0.5% Yet surprisingly nice. bit too hoppy for me, but if you weren't told the ABV I suspect a lot of people wouldn't notice.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 2, 2018 15:18:54 GMT
'Comparing things with 2011 when there was a Lib Dem MP here is also quite misleading'. -an interesting statistical concept. Disregard all LD council by election results in the 50 odd seats they lost in 2015.
Should we apply the same principle for the Labour and Tory parties' performance in by elections in Parliamentary seats they lost in 2015 or 2017?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 2, 2018 18:25:45 GMT
bit too hoppy for me, but if you weren't told the ABV I suspect a lot of people wouldn't notice. Piston Head do an excellent alcohol-free beer.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 2, 2018 18:41:13 GMT
bit too hoppy for me, but if you weren't told the ABV I suspect a lot of people wouldn't notice. Piston Head do an excellent alcohol-free beer. Flat Tyre - makes it to the Alcohol Concern website
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 2, 2018 20:34:16 GMT
' Comparing things with 2011 when there was a Lib Dem MP here is also quite misleading'. -an interesting statistical concept. Disregard all LD council by election results in the 50 odd seats they lost in 2015. Should we apply the same principle for the Labour and Tory parties' performance in by elections in Parliamentary seats they lost in 2015 or 2017? I don't think you have quite grasped the difference between the Lib Dems, where effort and credibility in an area are all important, and the Tories and Labour, where they are not
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 2, 2018 23:31:03 GMT
' Comparing things with 2011 when there was a Lib Dem MP here is also quite misleading'. -an interesting statistical concept. Disregard all LD council by election results in the 50 odd seats they lost in 2015. Should we apply the same principle for the Labour and Tory parties' performance in by elections in Parliamentary seats they lost in 2015 or 2017? I don't think you have quite grasped the difference between the Lib Dems, where effort and credibility in an area are all important, and the Tories and Labour, where they are not I can't agree with that. There are numerous safe LibDem seats in the south west where they are the main/only opposition to the Tories. Conversely, there are several Labour and Tory seats which are only held thanks to the hard work of the incumbent councillor.
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 3, 2018 0:54:42 GMT
There are numerous safe LibDem seats in the south west where they are the main/only opposition to the Tories. Sadly we are quite capable of falling away even in these places. We start from a higher baseline, but hard work is still fundamentally a large part of why we get elected. Conversely, there are several Labour and Tory seats which are only held thanks to the hard work of the incumbent councillor. I don’t think anyone would deny that (Birmingham seems an excellent case in point - Sutton Vesey vs Kingstanding), but this hard work is a reason for the election of a far higher proportion of Lib Dem councillors. This doesn’t mean we necessarily have ‘better’ councillors - just that we generally have to work harder at the ‘community champion’ part of the job.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 3, 2018 2:21:16 GMT
I don't think you have quite grasped the difference between the Lib Dems, where effort and credibility in an area are all important, and the Tories and Labour, where they are not I can't agree with that. There are numerous safe LibDem seats in the south west where they are the main/only opposition to the Tories. The Lib Dems only currently hold one parliamentary constituency in the entire South West region, and based on the result there in 2015 I don't think you can call that one completely safe either. If you're referring to council seats, then I wouldn't say there is any greater concentration of safe Lib Dem wards or divisions than in other parts of the country these days.
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