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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 23:42:45 GMT
LDEM: 49.3% (+8.4) CON: 39.4% (+16.8) LAB: 11.2% (-1.6) Went today to help out, pretty pleased with that result! The Tories threw a lot at it, during my last round I bumped into a group of them, they rather smugly asked ‘are you having to do it by yourself?’. Didn’t fancy starting a row but did want to throw back something along the lines of our way of campaigning being many times as effective so it balances out  More seriously though, it’s a very good result for the blue team, if they’re able to campaign like that across the council it could be a tough fight for us to make any real gains in South Gloucestershire next May i usually go with. You campaign?! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 23:44:06 GMT
LDEM: 49.3% (+8.4) CON: 39.4% (+16.8) LAB: 11.2% (-1.6) Good Conservative result there. bit like the the lib dem results last few weeks. Big swings with little fruition |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 1, 2018 23:46:31 GMT
Good Conservative result there. bit like the the lib dem results last few weeks. Big swings with little fruition But reasonable TO and good trend in what has been regarded as a LD sphere of influence particularly at the local level. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 1, 2018 23:50:41 GMT
Good Conservative result there. bit like the the lib dem results last few weeks. Big swings with little fruition Considering the Tories finished third here last time out, and fourth in the previous by-election this is the closest they have got for some time, and I imagine they would be pretty pleased. Whether they can push it further than that is, of course, another matter. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 1, 2018 23:53:29 GMT
Boleyn LAB 1725 CON 327 GRN 172 LIBDEM 83 Plus 14 spoils. Turnout 2321 23.55% |
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Post by lbarnes on Nov 1, 2018 23:54:14 GMT
LDEM: 49.3% (+8.4) CON: 39.4% (+16.8) LAB: 11.2% (-1.6) Good Conservative result there. Given the lack of a UKIP candidate with 24% of the vote last time and so much effort that's a pretty disappointing Tory performance for them. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 2, 2018 6:36:12 GMT
Good Conservative result there. Given the lack of a UKIP candidate with 24% of the vote last time and so much effort that's a pretty disappointing Tory performance for them. I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 2, 2018 7:55:41 GMT
Given the lack of a UKIP candidate with 24% of the vote last time and so much effort that's a pretty disappointing Tory performance for them. I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there. Not really. If you look at the comparison to the last time UKIP didn’t stand (2011) the Conservatives are up 18%. It’s not always the case that UKIP votes are automatically there for the picking for the Conservatives, and that was one of the reasons that the 2017 general election didn’t go as planned for them. There are plenty of voters in South West England who would have voted Lib Dem historically and then switched to UKIP, and many will now vote Lib Dem again. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 2, 2018 8:33:21 GMT
I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there. Not really. If you look at the comparison to the last time UKIP didn’t stand (2011) the Conservatives are up 18%. It’s not always the case that UKIP votes are automatically there for the picking for the Conservatives, and that was the one of the reasons that the 2017 general election didn’t go as planned for them. There are plenty of voters in South West England who would have voted Lib Dem historically and then switched to UKIP, and many will now vote Lib Dem again. True although the results do kind of also suggest a not insignificant LD to UKIP and then on to Con movement. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 2, 2018 8:38:59 GMT
Not really. If you look at the comparison to the last time UKIP didn’t stand (2011) the Conservatives are up 18%. It’s not always the case that UKIP votes are automatically there for the picking for the Conservatives, and that was the one of the reasons that the 2017 general election didn’t go as planned for them. There are plenty of voters in South West England who would have voted Lib Dem historically and then switched to UKIP, and many will now vote Lib Dem again. True although the results do kind of also suggest a not insignificant LD to UKIP and then on to Con movement. I know 2007 is a long time ago but it was probably the nadir for Labour during that electoral cycle. Last night's result saw the Liberal Democrats down 12% since then, Conservatives and Labour both up 6%. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 2, 2018 8:43:22 GMT
Given the lack of a UKIP candidate with 24% of the vote last time and so much effort that's a pretty disappointing Tory performance for them. I would agree with that analysis. Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory. The party that will be disappointed is Labour, and the fact that their vote was squeezed despite all the extra kipper votes should be encouraging for lib Dems down there. That really is not true. "Without any effort at all the greater part of those UKIP votes would have gone Tory." It is not like that. That vote would dissolve over a 3-year term into Deceased Moved Away Won't vote other than UKIP Not Voting Revert to Labour Revert to LD In all the present circumstances and against the background of voting history that can be regarded as a good Conservative result. Not a win but getting quite close in difficult times. |
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Post by tonyhill on Nov 2, 2018 9:18:29 GMT
I can't find the reference to acknowledge it, but someone said that the Tories were using Louise Harris's 'interesting' history against her in the by-election, and this probably did help them to some extent. However, Louise is an exceptional politician and will do a superb job for her electors and the District, and next time she stands for election will poll over 60% of the vote.
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 2, 2018 9:52:37 GMT
The boxes are open in Denby...
Will says we should know by lunchtime
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Nov 2, 2018 10:53:22 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results:
Labour gain:
1,834 Will Simpson (LAB)
1,689 Paula Kemp (CON)
289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM)
116 Isabel Walters (GREEN)
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Post by borisminor on Nov 2, 2018 10:56:47 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results: Labour gain: 1,834 Will Simpson (LAB) 1,689 Paula Kemp (CON) 289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM) 116 Isabel Walters (GREEN) A relatively strong gain for Labour, a bigger margin of victory than I expected. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 2, 2018 10:57:05 GMT
lab continuing to do well in Kirklees
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 2, 2018 11:00:24 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results: Labour gain: 1,834 Will Simpson (LAB) 1,689 Paula Kemp (CON) 289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM) 116 Isabel Walters (GREEN) That is a good sound Labour performance. A stronger showing by the Greens and no LD would have left us with a shout, No LD earlier this year and that has made all the difference. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Nov 2, 2018 11:02:54 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results: Labour gain: 1,834 Will Simpson (LAB) 1,689 Paula Kemp (CON) 289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM) 116 Isabel Walters (GREEN) A relatively strong gain for Labour, a bigger margin of victory than I expected. Indeed, and I wonder when the last time anyone got 1689 votes in a November by-election and lost was? Competitive as expected. I make the percentages: Lab - 46.7 Con - 43.0 Lib Dem - 7.4 Green- 3.0 |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2018 11:03:09 GMT
I can't find the reference to acknowledge it, but someone said that the Tories were using Louise Harris's 'interesting' history against her in the by-election, and this probably did help them to some extent. However, Louise is an exceptional politician and will do a superb job for her electors and the District, and next time she stands for election will poll over 60% of the vote. "Liked " that for the comment on Louise and her abilities which I would endorse. Not so sure about the effect of Tory negative campaigning against her, though- often negative campaigning of that sort is counter-productive, as I said earlier, and particularly so in an area which has a tradition of leaning towards Lib Dem anyway. Depends exactly what they said, and that I haven't seen- if they simply portrayed her as a carpet-bagger, it might have some consequence, and one person's carpet-bagger is another person's politician of wide experience! If they went further than that into muck-raking, I hope they got what they deserved. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 2, 2018 11:04:40 GMT
Denby Dale By-election results: Labour gain: 1,834 Will Simpson (LAB) 1,689 Paula Kemp (CON) 289 Alison Emma Baskeyfield (LIB DEM) 116 Isabel Walters (GREEN) "lunch" comes early for Will, I see! |
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