Prediction Competition - October 2018

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ASHFORD Kennington: C 45, Ind 31, Lab 17, GP 7
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Norden: Lab 58, C 24, Ind 10, L Dem 8
DORSET Ferndown: C 58, L Dem 31, UKIP 11
EAST DORSET Ferndown Central: C 50, L Dem 30, UKIP 20
HERTFORDSHIRE Three Rivers Rural: L Dem 52, C 37, Lab 5, GP 4, UKIP 2
MENDIP Wells St Thomas’: L Dem 59, C 32, Lab 9
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Coatbridge South: SNP 49, Lab 30, C 15, SGP 3, L Dem 2, UKIP 1. SNP to win.
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE Linton: C 48, Lab 32, L Dem 20
SUFFOLK Bosmere: L Dem 51, C 39, Lab 10
SUTTON Belmont: C 48, L Dem 33, Lab 11, UKIP 4, GP 3, CPA 1

[Robert Waller]

ASHFORD Kennington: C 54, Ind 26, Lab 17, GP 3
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Norden: Lab 62, C 26, Ind 6, L Dem 6
DORSET Ferndown: C 66, L Dem 25, UKIP 9
EAST DORSET Ferndown Central: C 64, L Dem 25, UKIP 11
HERTFORDSHIRE Three Rivers Rural: L Dem 45, C 44, Lab 5, GP 3, UKIP 3
MENDIP Wells St Thomas’: L Dem 51, C 44, Lab 5
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Coatbridge South: SNP 40.5, Lab 41, C 13.5, SGP 2, L Dem 2, UKIP 1. Lab to win.
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE Linton: C 52, Lab 40, L Dem 8
SUFFOLK Bosmere: L Dem 46, C 45, Lab 9
SUTTON Belmont: C 47, L Dem 34, Lab 10, UKIP 3, GP 4, CPA 2

[Deleted]

Kennington (Ashford): Con 57 Ash 25 Lab 13 Grn 5
Norden (Basingstoke & Deane): Lab 55 Con 20 LD 15 Ind 10
Ferndown (Dorset): Con 65 LD 23 UKIP 12
Ferndown Central (East Dorset): Con 63 LD 25 UKIP 12
Three Rivers Rural (Hertfordshire): LD 43 Con 37 Lab 10 Grn 5 UKIP 5
Wells St Thomas (Mendip): LD 45 Con 40 Lab 15
Coatbridge South (North Lanarkshire): SNP 41 Lab 36 Con 13 LD 5 Grn 4 UKIP 1 (Lab win after transfers)
Linton (South Derbyshire): Con 50 Lab 43 LD 7
Bosmere (Suffolk): LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
Belmont (Sutton): Con 45 LD 25 Lab 15 Grn 5 UKIP 4 CPA 3

[yellowperil]

Ashford, Kennington: Con 56, Lab 17, A Ind 22, Green 5
Basingstoke & Deane, Norden: Con 22, Lab 62, LD 9, Ind 7
Dorset,Ferndown: Con 64, LD 26, UKIP 10
East Dorset, Ferndown Central: Con 68, LD 20, UKIP 12
Hertfordshire, Three Rivers Rural: Con 43, Lab 5, LD 47, Green 3, UKiP 2
Mendip, Wells St Thomas: Con 42, Lab 10, LD 48
South Derbyshire, Linton: Con 53, Lab 39, LD 8
Suffolk, Bosmere: Con 43, Lab 12, LD 45
Sutton, Belmont: Con 49, Lab 10, LD 31, Green 5, UKIP 2, CPA 3

North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South: (first prefs) Con 14, Lab 37, LD 3, Green 4, UKIP 2, SNP 40
(Lab to win after transfers)

[olympian95]

Ashford: Con 59, Lab 19, Ashford Indy 14,Green 8

Basingstoke: Lab 63, Con 24, LD 8, Ind 5

Dorset CC: Con 69, UKIP 21 LD 10

East Dorset: Con 64, UKIP 24, LD 12

Herts CC: LD 46, Con 41, Lab 6, UKIP 5, Green 2

Mendip: LD 45, Con 41, Lab 14

North Lanarkshire: SNP 37 Lab 33, Con 20, UKIP 5, LD 3, Green 2

South Derbyshire: Con 55, Lab 39, LD 6

Suffolk: LD 50 Con 43, Lab 7

Sutton: Con 47, LD 39, Lab 8, UKIP 4, Green 1, CPA 1

[Right Leaning]

ASHFORD Kennington: C 45, Ind 34, Lab 19, Gn 2
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Norden: Lab 71, C 25, Ind 2, LD 2
DORSET Ferndown: C 62, LD 31, UKIP 7
EAST DORSET Ferndown Central: C 64, LD 30, UKIP 6
HERTFORDSHIRE Three Rivers Rural: LD 47, C 42, Lab 6, Gn 3, UKIP 2
MENDIP Wells St Thomas’: LD 53, C 40, Lab 7
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Coatbridge South: Lab 42, SNP 36, C 16, LD 3, Gn 2, UKIP 1. Lab to win.
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE Linton: C 55, Lab 38, LD 7
SUFFOLK Bosmere: LD 50, C 44, Lab 6
SUTTON Belmont: C 46, LD 39, Lab 9, Gn 3, UKIP 2, CPA 1

[hempie]

Ashford,Kennington: Con 52,Ind 27,Lab 18,Green 3
Basingstoke and Deane,Norden: Lab 60, Con 27, LD 8,Ind 5
Dorset,Ferndown: Con 60, LD 31, UKIP 9
East Dorset,Ferndown Central: Con 60, LD 32, UKIP 8
Hertfordshire,Three Rivers Rural: LD 47, Con 42, Lab 7, Green 2, UKIP 2
Mendip,Wells St Thomas’: LD 54, Con 41, Lab 5
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South: SNP 41.5, Lab 40.5, Con 11, LD 4, Green 2,UKIP 1. Lab to win on transfers
South Derbyshire,Linton: Con 50, Lab 41, LD 9
Suffolk,Bosmere: LD 48, Con 45, Lab 7
Sutton,Belmont: Con 45, LD 39, Lab 9, Green 4, UKIP 2, CPA 1

[ricmk]

ASHFORD: Con 58, Ind 25, Lab 14, Green 3
BASINGSTOKE: Lab 58 Con 32, Ind 5 LD 5
DORSET: Con 60, LD 25, UKIP 15
EAST DORSET: Con 60, LD 25, UKIP 15
HERTFORDSHIRE: LD 50 Con 42, Lab 5, Green 2, UKIP 1
MENDIP: LD 48 Con 42, Lab 10
NORTH LANARKSHIRE: Lab 40 SNP 40 Con 15 Green 2, LD 2, UKIP 1. Lab to win.
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE: Con 60 Lab 35, LD 5
SUFFOLK:Con 47 LD L Dem 43 Lab 10
SUTTON: C 42 LD 41, Lab 10, UKIP 3, Green 3 Christian 1

[robbienicoll]

Nothing better to kick off your 21st birthday than with a Super Thursday!

Kennington, Ashford: Con 55, Lab 15, Green 4, Ashford Ind 26
Norden, Basingstoke and Deane: Con 22, Lab 60, LD 5, Ind 13
Ferndown, Dorset: Con 56, LD 36, UKIP 8
Ferndown Central, East Dorset: Con 50, LD 39, UKIP 11
Three Rivers Rural, Hertfordshire: Con 40, Lab 5, LD 52, Green 2, UKIP 1
Wells St Thomas', Mendip: Con 30, LD 54, Lab 16
Coatbridge South, North Lanarkshire: Con 15, Lab 35, LD 2, Green 4, UKIP 1, SNP 43 - 50/50 on who'll win on transfers but I'll go with SNP
Linton, South Derbyshire: Con 50, Lab 45, LD 5
Bosmere, Suffolk: Con 42, Lab 12, LD 46
Belmont, Sutton: Con 50, Lab 13, LD 30, Green 4, UKIP 2, CPA 1

[yellowperil]

Oct 25, 2018 7:44:28 GMT robbienicoll said:

Nothing better to kick off your 21st birthday than with a Super Thursday!

Kennington, Ashford: Con 55, Lab 15, Green 4, Ashford Ind 26
Norden, Basingstoke and Deane: Con 22, Lab 60, LD 5, Ind 13
Ferndown, Dorset: Con 56, LD 36, UKIP 8
Ferndown Central, East Dorset: Con 50, LD 39, UKIP 11
Three Rivers Rural, Hertfordshire: Con 40, Lab 5, LD 52, Green 2, UKIP 1
Wells St Thomas', Mendip: Con 30, LD 54, Lab 16
Coatbridge South, North Lanarkshire: Con 15, Lab 35, LD 2, Green 4, UKIP 1, SNP 43 - 50/50 on who'll win on transfers but I'll go with SNP
Linton, South Derbyshire: Con 50, Lab 45, LD 5
Bosmere, Suffolk: Con 42, Lab 12, LD 46
Belmont, Sutton: Con 50, Lab 13, LD 30, Green 4, UKIP 2, CPA 1

Many happy returns. May you enjoy many more Super Thursdays.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Oct 25, 2018 7:44:28 GMT robbienicoll said:

Nothing better to kick off your 21st birthday than with a Super Thursday!

Kennington, Ashford: Con 55, Lab 15, Green 4, Ashford Ind 26
Norden, Basingstoke and Deane: Con 22, Lab 60, LD 5, Ind 13
Ferndown, Dorset: Con 56, LD 36, UKIP 8
Ferndown Central, East Dorset: Con 50, LD 39, UKIP 11
Three Rivers Rural, Hertfordshire: Con 40, Lab 5, LD 52, Green 2, UKIP 1
Wells St Thomas', Mendip: Con 30, LD 54, Lab 16
Coatbridge South, North Lanarkshire: Con 15, Lab 35, LD 2, Green 4, UKIP 1, SNP 43 - 50/50 on who'll win on transfers but I'll go with SNP
Linton, South Derbyshire: Con 50, Lab 45, LD 5
Bosmere, Suffolk: Con 42, Lab 12, LD 46
Belmont, Sutton: Con 50, Lab 13, LD 30, Green 4, UKIP 2, CPA 1                                                                                                                                                                                           Happy 21st - hope it's a Super Thursday birthday for you.

[ricmk]

Oct 25, 2018 7:44:28 GMT robbienicoll said:

Nothing better to kick off your 21st birthday than with a Super Thursday!

Kennington, Ashford: Con 55, Lab 15, Green 4, Ashford Ind 26
Norden, Basingstoke and Deane: Con 22, Lab 60, LD 5, Ind 13
Ferndown, Dorset: Con 56, LD 36, UKIP 8
Ferndown Central, East Dorset: Con 50, LD 39, UKIP 11
Three Rivers Rural, Hertfordshire: Con 40, Lab 5, LD 52, Green 2, UKIP 1
Wells St Thomas', Mendip: Con 30, LD 54, Lab 16
Coatbridge South, North Lanarkshire: Con 15, Lab 35, LD 2, Green 4, UKIP 1, SNP 43 - 50/50 on who'll win on transfers but I'll go with SNP
Linton, South Derbyshire: Con 50, Lab 45, LD 5
Bosmere, Suffolk: Con 42, Lab 12, LD 46
Belmont, Sutton: Con 50, Lab 13, LD 30, Green 4, UKIP 2, CPA 1

You're so young!
Have a great day.

[robbienicoll]

Thank you all!

[andrewp]

Could be a good night for the Lib Dems. There are 3 gains that most/ all of us think they will acheive.

[yellowperil]

Oct 25, 2018 10:54:55 GMT andrewp said:

Could be a good night for the Lib Dems. There are 3 gains that most/ all of us think they will acheive.

Yes,trouble with that is that it suddenly becomes a bad night if in the end there are "only" a couple of gains. Several of those (3 and more ?)could indeed go either way and I'm a bit wary about that convergence of opinion on this thread, bit of herding going on there I think as few of us have dared to step out of line when the competition is so tight. Has happened a number of times lately that we finish up with 100% wrong!

A lot of these seats are ones where the Lib Dems were previously very strong but where it has since gone pear-shaped. The question is whether the underlying strength will shine through, or whether the reasons why things went wrong still apply. If the latter, results might not live up to expectations.

[andrewp]

Oct 25, 2018 13:04:20 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 25, 2018 10:54:55 GMT andrewp said:

Could be a good night for the Lib Dems. There are 3 gains that most/ all of us think they will acheive.

Yes,trouble with that is that it suddenly becomes a bad night if in the end there are "only" a couple of gains. Several of those (3 and more ?)could indeed go either way and I'm a bit wary about that convergence of opinion on this thread, bit of herding going on there I think as few of us have dared to step out of line when the competition is so tight. Has happened a number of times lately that we finish up with 100% wrong!

A lot of these seats are ones where the Lib Dems were previously very strong but where it has since gone pear-shaped. The question is whether the underlying strength will shine through, or whether the reasons why things went wrong still apply. If the latter, results might not live up to expectations.

Thats true. I would be astonished if the Lib Dems don’t gain Wells. The other 2 - I was largely going on the numbers for my predictions

[middleenglander]

Oct 25, 2018 14:00:48 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 25, 2018 13:04:20 GMT yellowperil said:

Yes,trouble with that is that it suddenly becomes a bad night if in the end there are "only" a couple of gains. Several of those (3 and more ?)could indeed go either way and I'm a bit wary about that convergence of opinion on this thread, bit of herding going on there I think as few of us have dared to step out of line when the competition is so tight. Has happened a number of times lately that we finish up with 100% wrong!

A lot of these seats are ones where the Lib Dems were previously very strong but where it has since gone pear-shaped. The question is whether the underlying strength will shine through, or whether the reasons why things went wrong still apply. If the latter, results might not live up to expectations.

Thats true. I would be astonished if the Lib Dems don’t gain Wells. The other 2 - I was largely going on the numbers for my predictions

Wells would be a Liberal Democrat hold if that happened - the late Councillor was elected as a Liberal Democrat but "defected" to become a Conservative Councillor.

[middleenglander]

!5 entries this week, all in time. priceofdawn gets 5 additional faults for adding to only 95% in Basingstoke & Deane, europeanlefty 3 additional faults for adding to only 97% in Sutton, Tony Otim 0.3 additional faults for adding to only 99.7% in Dorset whilst Luke Dickinson gets 4 additional faults for adding to only 96% in Sutton as he had a Women's Equality Party candidate rather than Christian Peoples Alliance.

Ashford, Kennington: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 17% (Luke Dickinson over Labour) to 50% (priceofdawn over Ashford Independent)
Basingstoke & Deane, Norden: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 26% (ricmk) to 46% (Right Leaning)
Dorset, Ferndown: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 20% (robbienicoll over Liberal Democrat) to 48% (Olympian95 over UKIP)
East Dorset, Ferndown Central: 100% COnservative hold, majority from 11% (robbienicoll over Liberal Democrat) to 49.9% (Tony Otim over UKIP)
Hertfordshire, Tree Rivers Rural: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 1% (Robert Waller & ThirdChill) to 15% (David Boothroyd)
Mendip, Wells St Thomas: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Conservative from 4% (Olympian95) to 27% (David Boothroyd)
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South: 11 SNP ahead on first preferences, andrewp, Right Leaning & Robert Waller Labour ahead, ricmk Labour / SNP tied
South Derbyshire, Linton: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 1% (ThirdChill) to 25% (ricmk)
Suffolk. Bosmere: 14 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority from 1% (Robert Waller) to 20% (ThirdChill), ricmk Conservative hold
Sutton, Belmont: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Liberal Democrat from 1% (ricmk) to 35% (priceofdawn)

[middleenglander]

Month of November

Authority	Week 1 - 3	Week 4	Week 4	Month	Month
Ward	faults	faults	position	faults	position
andrewp	211.5
David Boothroyd	282.5
europeanlefty	288.9
greenrobinhood	331.4
hempie	194.5
Luke Dickinson	286.8
olympian95	251.5
priceofdawn	505.0
ricmk	319.9
Right Leaning	310.9
robbienicoll	248.7
Robert Waller	198.1
Third Chill	255.2
Tony Otim	206.4
Yellow Peril	226.8
Total	4118.0

[yellowperil]

I am interested in how the wrong winner faults are distributed in the Scottish election ( this is sort of a preemptive  appeal in advance of any pronouncements by middleenglander !) Most of us are now remembering to indicate our eventual winner after redistribution, and in a number of cases it was different from the leader after first preferences only. One or two out of 15 didn't do so, but that could be taken as indicating they expected the leader on first prefs to stay ahead. I would argue in this case those of us who showed the SNP ahead (or tied )at stage 1 but indicated an eventual Lab win should not pick up wrong winner faults.