Prediction Competition - October 2018

[greenhert]

Hackney LBC, Victoria: Labour 62, Green 16, Liberal Democrats 11, Conservative 8,WEP 3.
Oxfordshire CC, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: Green 45, Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 9, Conservative 6.

[Robert Waller]

Hackney LBC, Victoria: Labour 66, Green 15, Liberal Democrats 10, Conservative 6, WEP 3.
Oxfordshire CC, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: Green 45, Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservative 5.

[yellowperil]

Hackney, Victoria: Con 8, Lab 68, LD 9, Green 13, WEP 2
Oxfordshire, Iffley Fields &St Marys: Con 5, Lab 39, LD 10, Green 46

and, thankfully not included in competition:
Mid & East Antrim, Carrick Castle: UUP 38, DUP 32, All 22, Ind 5, D&V 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

HACKNEY Victoria: Lab 64, GP 15, C 10, L Dem 8, WEP 3
OXFORDSHIRE Iffley Fields and St Marys: Lab 45, GP 43, C 7, L Dem 5

[andrewp]

Hackney, Victoria Lab 63, green 17, Lib Dem 10, Con 7, WEP 3
Oxfordshire Iffley Fiellds and St Mary’s Green 43, Lab 42, Lib Dem 9, Con 6

[ricmk]

Hackney: Lab 68 Green 18, Con 7 LD 5 WEP 2.
Oxfordshire: Green 45 Lab 40 LD 10 Con 5

[olympian95]

Oxon (Iffley) Green 45, Lab 43, Con 7, LD 5

Hackney - Lab 58, Green 17, LD 11, WEP 10, Con 4

[hempie]

Hackney, Victoria: Lab 60, Green 19, LD 12, Con 6, WEP 3
Oxfordshire Iffley Fields and St Mary’s: Green 42, Lab 40, LD 11, Con 7

[Robert Waller]

I'll have a go at N Ireland, even if I'm only in competition with Yellow Peril!

(And assuming no late faults as it's not in the official list ...)

Mid & East Antrim, Carrick Castle: UUP 30, DUP 49, All 14, Ind 3, D&V 4

[yellowperil]

Oct 18, 2018 10:01:13 GMT Robert Waller said:

I'll have a go at N Ireland, even if I'm only in competition with Yellow Peril!

(And assuming no late faults as it's not in the official list ...)

Mid & East Antrim, Carrick Castle: UUP 30, DUP 49, All 14, Ind 3, D&V 4

... and I'm easily beaten on this one!

Actually in this nominal competition, I am just hoping to have less than 100 nominal faults, to beat all the others with 100 nominal faults for being absent on parade!Not at all sure I'll achieve it- I'm already thinking with Robert that a DUP win was probably a safer bet...

[middleenglander]

15 entries this week with nothing from Casual Observer. priceofdawn gets 2 additional faults for adding to only 98% in Hackney.

Hackney, Victoria: 100% Labour hold with majority over Green from 12% (Luke Dickinson) to 55% (Yellow Peril).
Oxfordshire, Iffley Fields & St Mary's: 10 Green gain from Labour, David Boothroyd, europeanlefty, robbienicoll, Robert Waller & Tony Otim Labour hold

[middleenglander]

Week 3

Authority	Week 1 & 2	Hackney	Oxfordshire	Week 3	Week 3	Week 1 - 3	Week 1 - 3
Ward	faults	Victoria	Iffley Fields & St Mary's	faults	position	faults	position
andrewp	163.7	19.7	18.0+10	47.8	8th	211.5	4th
David Boothroyd	246.8	23.7	12.0	35.8	3rd	282.5	9th
europeanlefty	245.8	34.7	8.4	43.1	5th	288.9	11th
greenrobinhood	285.6	17.7	18.0+10	45.8	7th	331.4	14th
hempie	143.7	16.7	24.0+10	50.8	9th	194.5	1st
Luke Dickinson	220.7	42.6	13.5+10	66.1	13th	286.8	10th
olympian95	208.1	21.3	12.0+10	43.4	6th	251.5	7th
priceofdawn	422.0	33.0+2	38.0+10	83.0	15th	505.0	15th
ricmk	260.1	31.7	18.0+10	59.8	12th	319.9	13th
Right Leaning	231.1	29.7	40.0+10	79.8	14th	310.9	12th
robbienicoll	212.4	18.3	18.0	36.4	4th	248.7	6th
Robert Waller	171.4	20.7	6.0	26.8	1st	198.1	2nd
Third Chill	198.4	22.7	24.0+10	56.8	11th	255.2	8th
Tony Otim	172.0	24.9	9.4	34.3	2nd	206.4	3rd
Yellow Peril	173.9	23.7	19.2+10	52.9	10th	226.8	5th
Total	3,355.7	381.1+2	279.0+100	762.3		4,118.0

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 10 by-elections in the last week of the month.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.

[yellowperil]

I concede defeat to Robert in Carrick Castle- well there's a surprise. A quick calculation, at it probably isn't worth more, makes Robert's score 33.5 faults and mine 39.1+10 wrong winner faults. Unless of course we did play it by the book and impose swingeing late faults on Robert? I suspect 10 faults might have been appropriate so he would still have won!

Of course if we were playing by the book I would have gained over 50 points on all the rest of you, and I can console myself with that if next week's Super Thursday goes really bad for me and I tumble out of the top 10 rankings. Given the three week's rankings for me have gone 3rd, 6th, 10th, that seems all too likely....

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert for the week.

I'm somewhat disappointed to have done so well this week 😕😕

[lukedickinson]

Ashford: Con 45, Lab 28, AIN 22, Grn 5

Basingstoke & Deane: Lab 68, Con 24, LD 5, Ind 3.

Dorset: Con 60, LD 30, UKIP 10.

E. Dorset: Con 55, LD 40, UKIP 5.

Hertfordshire: LD 46, Con 40, Lab 8, Grn 4, UKIP 2.

Mendip: LD 48, Con 38, Lab 14.

N. Lanarkshire: SNP 37, Lab 33, Con 14, Grn 8, LD 6, UKIP 2. Lab to win seat after AV.

S. Derbyshire: Con 45, Lab 37, LD 18.

Suffolk: LD 48, Con 40, Lab 12.

Sutton: Con 48, LD 29, Lab 10, Grn 6, CPA 4, UKIP 3.

[thirdchill]

Ashford: Con 51, Lab 26, AIN 15, Grn 8

Basingstoke & Deane: Lab 60, Con 20, LD 14, Ind 6.

Dorset: Con 59, LD 36, UKIP 5.

E. Dorset: Con 56, LD 38, UKIP 6.

Hertfordshire: LD 45, Con 44, Lab 6, Grn 3, UKIP 2.

Mendip: LD 55, Con 35, Lab 10.

N. Lanarkshire: SNP 38, Lab 36, Con 16, LD 6, Grn 3, UKIP 1.

S. Derbyshire: Con 44, Lab 43, LD 13.

Suffolk: LD 55, Con 35, Lab 10.

Sutton: Con 47, LD 30, Lab 15, Grn 5, UKIP 2, CPA 1.

[Tony Otim]

Ashford: Con 58.7; Ash Ind 19.6; Lab 16.2; Grn 5.5
Basingstoke & Deane: Lab 64.2; Con 25.8; LD 6.2; Ind 3.8;
Dorset: Con 65.2; UKIP 19.3; LD 15.2
East Dorset: Con 67.1; UKIP 17.2; LD 15.7
Hertfordshire: LD 46.4; Con 44.5; Lab 4.5; Grn 2.5; UKIP 2.1
Mendip: LD 46.2;  Con 38.3; Lab 15.5
North Lanarkshire: SNP 43.8; Lab 33.2; Con 14.1; Grn 4.5; LD 3.2; UKIP 1.2 (SNP to win after transfers)
South Derbyshire: Con 54.6; Lab 38.6; LD 6.8
Suffolk: LD 46.7; Con 43.1; Lab 10.2
Sutton: Con 49.8; LD 27.2; Lab 11.2; UKIP 6.2; Grn 4.4; CPA 1.2

[Deleted]

Ashford: Con 65; Ash Ind 15; Lab 10; Grn 10
Basingstoke & Deane: Lab 55; Con 20; LD 15; Ind 5
Dorset: Con 60; UKIP 15; LD 25
East Dorset: Con 60; UKIP 15; LD 25
Hertfordshire: LD 40; Con 35; Lab 15; Grn 5; UKIP 5
Mendip: LD 40; Con 35; Lab 25
North Lanarkshire: SNP 35; Lab 25; Con 20; Grn 10; LD 5; UKIP 5 (Lab to win after transfers)
South Derbyshire: Con 50; Lab 45; LD 5
Suffolk: LD 40; Con 35; Lab 25
Sutton: Con 55; LD 20; Lab 15; UKIP 5; Grn 4; CPA 1

[greenhert]

Ashford BC, Kennington: Conservative 60, Ashfield Independents 21, Labour 13, Green 6.
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Norden: Labour 62, Conservative 23, Liberal Democrats 12, Independent (Heath) 3.
Dorset CC, Ferndown: Conservative 66, Liberal Democrats 25, UKIP 9.
East Dorset DC, Ferndown Central: Conservative 64, Liberal Democrats 26,UKIP 10.
Hertfordshire CC, Three Rivers Rural: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 41, Labour 8, Green 4, UKIP 2.
Mendip DC,Wells St Thomas: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 38, Labour 12.
North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge (1st preferences): SNP 37, Labour 33, Conservative 19, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 4, UKIP 2.
South Derbyshire DC, Linton: Conservative 52, Labour 42, Liberal Democrats 6.
Suffolk CC, Bosmere: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 43, Labour 9.
Sutton LBC, Belmont: Conservative 53, Liberal Democrats 24, Labour 12, UKIP 6, Green 3, CPA 2.

[andrewp]

Ashford Kennington Con 55, AshfordInd 24, Lab 15, Green 6
Basingstoke and Deane, Norden. Lab 64, Con 23, Lib Dem 8, ind 5
Dorset, Ferndown Con 66, Lib Dem 24, UKIP 10
East Dorset, Ferndown Central Con 64, Lib Dem 26, UKIP 10
Hertfordshire, Three Rivers Rural Lib Dem 48, Con 40, Lab 6, Green 3, UKIP 3
Mendip, Wells St Thomas Lib Dem 53, Con 37, Lab 10
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South Lab 41, SNP 37, Con 12, Lib Dem 5, Green 3, UKIP 2
South Derbyshire, Linton Con 50, Lab 42, Lib Dem 8
Suffolk, Bosmere, Lib Dem 52, Con 39, Lab 9
Sutton, Belmont Con 49, Lib Dem 29, Lab 12, UKIP 5, Green 4, CPA 1