Prediction Competition - October 2018

[middleenglander]

16 entries this week with priceofdawn getting 3 x 80 additional faults for posting just before 7.00 pm. We are rejoined by casualobserver, europeanlefty and ricmk.

Cambridgeshire, Soham North & Isleham: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Liberal Democrat from 15% (ricmk) to 50% (europeanlefty)
Chesterfield, Moor: 9 Labour hold, casualobserver, greerobinhood, hempie, lukedickinson, olympian95, priceofdawn & thirdchill Liberal Democrat gain
Hambleton, Thirsk: 100% Conservative hold with majority from 28% (lukedickinson & thirdchill over Yorkshire) to 53% (robertwaller over Labour)

[yellowperil]

Well done to Olympian on his comfortable win on the first stage of the proceedings -if he does as well on the Thirsk count I have seriously underestimated the Yorkie! I am of course pleased about the LD win in Chesterfield but am kicking myself because I had the result almost exactly right and just before posting had second thoughts given our candidate's age and the fact that he had been beaten there before and trying balance that against his experience and undoubted ability. Trust your first instincts!

[middleenglander]

Week 1

Authority	Cambridgeshire	Chesterfield	Hambleton	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Soham North & Isleham	Moor	Thirsk	faults	position
andrewp	10.7	16.4+10	9.2	46.2	2nd
Casual Observer	26.4	9.1	12.4	47.9	4th
David Boothroyd	20.4	26.4+10	31.2	88.0	12th
europeanlefty	32.4	26.4+10	29.2	98.0	15th
greenrobinhood	18.4	12.4	33.2	64.0	9th
hempie	10.7	14.4	11.2	36.2	1st
Luke Dickinson	16.4	10.2	31.2	57.8	7th
olympian95	10.4	7.1	35.2	52.8	6th
priceofdawn	20.7+80	12.9+80	9.2+80	282.8	16th
ricmk	20.4	20.4+10	39.2	90.0	13th
Right Leaning	20.4	16.4+10	23.2	70.0	11th
robbienicoll	27.7	20.4+10	35.2	93.2	14th
Robert Waller	12.0	12.4+10	16.4	50.7	5th
Third Chill	20.7	12.4	35.2	68.2	10th
Tony Otim	19.0	20.0+10	13.2	62.1	8th
Yellow Peril	14.4	10.4+10	12.4	47.2	3rd
Total	301.0+80	247.4+90+80	376.5+80	1,254.9

Objections please by 5.00 pm Sunday.

There are 5 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[olympian95]

Blew it on the last one!

Ah well....

[yellowperil]

Oct 5, 2018 13:11:13 GMT middleenglander said:

Week 1

Authority	Cambridgeshire	Chesterfield	Hambleton	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Soham North & Isleham	Moor	Thirsk	faults	position
andrewp	10.7	16.4+10	9.2	46.2	2nd
Casual Observer	26.4	9.1	12.4	47.9	4th
David Boothroyd	20.4	26.4+10	31.2	88.0	12th
europeanlefty	32.4	26.4+10	29.2	98.0	15th
greenrobinhood	18.4	12.4	33.2	64.0	9th
hempie	10.7	14.4	11.2	36.2	1st
Luke Dickinson	16.4	10.2	31.2	57.8	7th
olympian95	10.4	7.1	35.2	52.8	6th
priceofdawn	20.7+80	12.9+80	9.2+80	282.8	16th
ricmk	20.4	20.4+10	39.2	90.0	13th
Right Leaning	20.4	16.4+10	23.2	70.0	11th
robbienicoll	27.7	20.4+10	35.2	93.2	14th
Robert Waller	12.0	12.4+10	16.4	50.7	5th
Third Chill	20.7	12.4	35.2	68.2	10th
Tony Otim	19.0	20.0+10	13.2	62.1	8th
Yellow Peril	14.4	10.4+10	12.4	47.2	3rd
Total	301.0+80	247.4+90+80	376.5+80	1,254.9

Objections please by 5.00 pm Sunday.

There are 5 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

As always, hearty thanks to Middleenglander for all his hard work  on this, and for once he confirms all three of my rather tentative assumptions, first that Hempie won the week, second that Andrew won in Yorkshire, and thirdly that Price of Dawn would have been second overall without the huge time handicap.  So congratulations to all 3, and to Olympian for his good work in Soham and Chesterfield. And PoD would clearly now be a challenge to us all if he could remember little things like adding up to 100 and knowing what day of the week it is . As usual, all to play for.

[yellowperil]

Some of you will have noted the discussion on the by-election thread about the NI by-election coming up next week, so the interesting question is whether or not it should be added in here? We will await an opinion on that from middleenglander with bated breath. It is after all a UK local by-election and I think the first outside the May elections since this Forum has existed, so ME ought really to pronounce?

[middleenglander]

Oct 8, 2018 12:38:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Some of you will have noted the discussion on the by-election thread about the NI by-election coming up next week, so the interesting question is whether or not it should be added in here? We will await an opinion on that from middleenglander with bated breath. It is after all a UK local by-election and I think the first outside the May elections since this Forum has existed, so ME ought really to pronounce?

Rule 23e applies. There must be 12 clear days between a by-election being identified on this site and the date of the by-election for it to be included in the prediction competition.

For a by-election to be held on Thursday 18 October it must have been identified here by Friday 5 October. It wasn't, so the NI by-election is not included in the prediction competition. This rule has been applied at least once, possibly twice, in the distant past.

[Deleted]

The by-election was identified on 30th August and the date confirmed on 4th September in the By-elections after 3rd May thread.

[middleenglander]

Oct 9, 2018 0:39:44 GMT middleenglander said:

Oct 8, 2018 12:38:23 GMT yellowperil said:

Some of you will have noted the discussion on the by-election thread about the NI by-election coming up next week, so the interesting question is whether or not it should be added in here? We will await an opinion on that from middleenglander with bated breath. It is after all a UK local by-election and I think the first outside the May elections since this Forum has existed, so ME ought really to pronounce?

Rule 23e applies. There must be 12 clear days between a by-election being identified on this site thread and the date of the by-election for it to be included in the prediction competition.

For a by-election to be held on Thursday 18 October it must have been identified here by Friday 5 October. It wasn't, so the NI by-election is not included in the prediction competition. This rule has been applied at least once, possibly twice, in the distant past.

Fixed that.

[yellowperil]

Fair enough, I just wanted a ruling and I've got a ruling. Would have been fun to have an election in NI to worry about and probably more predictable than elsewhere- just because the tribes in NI are more clearcut generally. If we had asked the question just a bit sooner (just a few hours!) the answer would presumably have been different, and I know we have precedents with ordinary GB elections which everybody had missed not being included in the prediction competition.Thanks due to ME as always for giving the definitive ruling.

[ricmk]

I suggest we make it non-competitive. Predict it if you want, claim bragging rights if you do well; middleenglander has made it clear that it won't be included in the monthly totals.

[Tony Otim]

Adur: Lab 48.1; Con 44.1; Grn 7.8
Halton: Lab 59.7; Con 25.1; LD 15.2
Hartlepool:  Ind 48.3; Lab 35.4; Con 13.1; Grn 3.2
Warrington: Lab 40.3; Con 29.6; Ind 17.3; LD 5.2; UKIP 4.5; Grn 3.1
West Lancs: Lab 75.2; Ind 14.1; Con 10.7

[thirdchill]

Adur: Lab 50; Con 37; Grn 13
Halton: Lab 68; Con 20; LD 12
Hartlepool: Lab 40; Ind 38; Con 16; Grn 6
Warrington: Lab 38; Con 32; Ind 11; LD 10; Grn 5; UKIP 4
West Lancs: Lab 78; Con 16; Ind 6

[Deleted]

Southlands (Adur): Lab 50 Con 45 Grn 5
Ditton (Halton): Lab 70 Con 19 LD 11
Hart (Hartlepool): Lab 35 Ind 32 Con 28 Grn 5
Penketh & Cuerdley (Warrington): Lab 34 Con 30 LD 13 UKIP 8 Ind 7 Grn 5
Tanhouse (West Lancashire): Lab 72 Ind 15 Con 13

[Robert Waller]

Adur: Lab 46; Con 47; Grn 7
Halton: Lab 65; Con 20; LD 15
Hartlepool: Lab 41; Ind 40; Con 16; Grn 3
Warrington: Lab 40; Con 28; Ind 20; LD 5; Grn 3; UKIP 4
West Lancs: Lab 80; Con 10; Ind 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ADUR Southlands: Lab 48, C 46, GP 6
HALTON Ditton: Lab 67, C 23, L Dem 10
HARTLEPOOL Hart: Lab 42, Ind 34, C 19, GP 5
WARRINGTON Penketh and Cuerdley: Lab 42, C 29, L Dem 15, Ind 7, UKIP 4, GP 3
WEST LANCASHIRE Tanhouse: Lab 80, C 15, Ind 5

[lukedickinson]

Adur: Lab 52, Con 46, Grn 2.

Halton: Lab 62, Con 24, LD 14.

Hartlepool: Lab 46, Ind 36, Con 12, Grn 6.

Warrington: Lab 37, Con 29, LD 12, Grn 10, Ind 8, UKIP 4.

West Lancashire: Lab 70, Con 18, Ind 12. 

[yellowperil]

Adur, Southlands: Con 45, Lab 47, Green 8
Halton, Ditton: Con 22, Lab 60. LD 18
Hartlepool, Hart: Con 12, Lab 40, Green 3, Ind 45
Warrington, Penketh & Cuerdley: Con 25, Lab 44, LD 9, Green 4, UKIP 8, Ind 10
West Lancs, Tanhouse: Con 11, Lab 80, Ind 9

[Right Leaning]

Adur: C 47, Lab 46, Gn 7
Halton: Lab 62, LD 20, C 18
Hartlepool: Ind 39, Lab 36, C 17, Gn 8
Warrington: Lab 39, C 31, LD 10, UKIP 8, Ind 7, Gn 5.
West Lancashire: Lab 78, C 16, Ind 6

[Deleted]

Adur: C 44, Lab 46, Gn 10
Halton: Lab 55, LD 25, C 20
Hartlepool: Ind 45, Lab 40, C 10, Gn 5
Warrington: Lab 35, C 40, LD 5, UKIP 5, Ind 10, Gn 5.
West Lancashire: Lab 65, C 20, Ind 15