Prediction Competition - October 2018

[andrewp]

Adur Lab 49, Con 42, Green 9
Halton Lab 71 Con 15, Lib Dem 14
Hartlepool Lab 41, Ind 40, Con 15, Green 4
Warrington Lab 40, Con 33, Ind 12, Lib Dem 7, UKIP 5, Green 3
West Lancashire Lab 82, Con 11, Ind 7

[ricmk]

Adur: Con 51, Lab 43 Green 6
Halton: Lab 72, Con 19, LD 9
Hartlepool: Lab 40 Con 30 ind 25, Green 5
Warrington: Lab 45 Con 30 LD 10, Ind 9 , Green 4 UKIP 2
West Lancs: Lab 68; Con 16, Ind 16

[hempie]

Adur, Southlands: Lab 48, Con 47, Green 5
Halton, Ditton: Lab 62, Con 20, LD 18
Hartlepool, Hart: Ind 43, Lab 39, Con 14, Green 4
Warrington, Penketh & Cuerdley: Lab 38, Con 30, Ind 18, LD 7, Green 4, UKIP 3
West Lancashire, Tanhouse: Lab 77, Ind 12, Con 11

[olympian95]

Adur: Lab 47, Con 44, Green 9

Halton: Lab 64, Con 29, LD 7

Hartlepool: Lab 43, Ind 29, Con 19, Green 9

Warrington: Lab 41, Con 34, Ind 9, LD 8, UKIP 5, Green 3

West Lancs: Lab 67, Ind 18, Con 15

[robbienicoll]

Southlands, Adur: Con 46, Lab 47, Green 7
Ditton, Halton: Con 22, Lab 58, LD 20
Hart, Hartlepool: Con 15, Lab 39, Green 3, Ind 43
Penketh and Cuerdley, Warrington: Con 29, Lab 44, LD 9, Green 2, UKIP 1, Ind 15
Tanhouse, West Lancashire: Con 7, Lab 79, Ind 14

[yellowperil]

We appear to have lost greenhert and casualobserver? Any news?

[greenhert]

Oops-forgot about it!

Here are my predictions anyway:

Adur DC, Southlands: Labour 48, Conservative 44, Green 8.
Halton UA, Ditton: Labour 55, Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 8.
Hartlepool UA, Hart: Independent (Brewer) 40, Labour 38, Conservative 17, Green 5.
Warrington UA, Penketh & Cuerdley: Labour 50, Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, UKIP 3, Independent (Fellowes) 2.
West Lancashire BC, Tanhouse: Labour 75, Conservative 18, Independent (Body) 7.

[middleenglander]

15 entries this week with nothing from casualobserver. europeanlefty has 3 additional faults for adding to 97% in Warrington whilst greenrobinhood gets 5 x 10 additional faults for posting more than 1 hour late.

Adur, Southlands: 12 Labour gain from UKIP with ricmk, rightleaning and Robert Waller Conservative gain
Halton, Ditton: 100% Labour hold with majority from 18% (greenrobinhood over Conservative) to 56% (andrewp over Conservative)
Hartlepool, Hart: 8 Labour hold, greenrobinhood, hempie, priceofdawn, Right Leaning, robbienichol, Tony Otim & Yellow Peril Independent gain
Warrington, Penketh & Cuerdley: 12 Labour hold with majority over Conservation from 4% (europeanlefty) to 19% (Yellow Peril) priceofdawn Conservative gain
West Lancashire: Tanhouse: 100% Labour hold with majority from 45% (priceofdawn over Conservative) to 71% (andrewp over Conservative)

[yellowperil]

Surely the Tanhouse win is down to European Lefty, rather than Tony Otim?

[middleenglander]

Week 2

Authority	Week 1	Adur	Halton	Hartlepool	Warrington	West  Lancashire	Week 2	Week 2	Week 1 & 2	Week 1 & 2
Ward	faults	Southlands	Ditton	Hart	Penketh & Cuerdley	Tanhouse	faults	position	faults	position
andrewp	46.2	9.1	5.9	8.1+10	48.3+10	26.2	117.5	3rd	163.7	2nd
Casual Observer	47.9	100	100	100	100	100	500		547.9	16th
David Boothroyd	88.0	15.1	15.2	20.1+10	58.3+10	30.2	158.8	11th	246.8	12th
europeanlefty	98.0	17.1	7.2	34.6+10	55.3+10+3	10.7	147.9	9th	245.8	11th
greenrobinhood	64.0	11.1+10	43.2+10	12.6+10	68.6+10+10	26.2+10	221.7	15th	285.6	14th
hempie	36.2	17.1	23.0	4.6	36.6+10	16.2	107.5	1st	143.7	1st
Luke Dickinson	57.8	23.1	23.0	19.8+10	56.3+10	20.7	162.9	13th	220.7	9th
olympian95	52.8	9.1	27.2	30.1+10	54.3+10	14.7	155.4	10th	208.1	7th
priceofdawn	282.8	7.1	37.0	8.2	52.3+10	24.7	139.3	8th	422.0	15th
ricmk	90.0	21.0+10	7.2	38.6+10	56.6+10	16.7	170.1	14th	260.1	13th
Right Leaning	70.0	13.1+10	23.0	18.6	58.3+10	28.2	161.2	12th	231.1	10th
robbienicoll	93.2	13.1	31.0	4.6	46.9+10	13.5	119.1	4th	212.4	8th
Robert Waller	50.7	13.1+10	17.0	8.1+10	32.3+10	20.2	120.7	5th	171.4	3rd
Third Chill	68.2	8.1	11.0	12.6+10	50.3+10	28.2	130.2	7th	198.4	6th
Tony Otim	62.1	11.5	27.6	11.2	37.7+10	12.0	109.9	2nd	172.0	4th
Yellow Peril	47.2	11.1	27.0	4.2	52.3+10	22.2	126.7	6th	173.9	5th
Total	1,254.9	299.5+10+30	425.6+10	355.9+10+80	864.0+3+10+150	410.6+10	2,648.7		3,903.5

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 2 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Hempie is looking pretty invincible- congrats to him. But watch out for Robert positioning himself beautifully for his accustomed late surge!

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to hempie for the week.

[Tony Otim]

Long way to go yet with half the month's contests happening in the final week.

[lukedickinson]

Hackney: Lab 46, Grn 34, LD 10, Con 6, WEP 4.

Oxfordshire: Grn 52, Lab 42, Con 4, LD 2.

[thirdchill]

Hackney: Lab 61, Grn 21, LD 10, Con 5, WEP 3.
Oxfordshire: Grn 42, Lab 40, LD 10, Con 8.

[Deleted]

Hackney: Lab 55, Grn 25, LD 7, Con 10, WEP 1.
Oxfordshire: Grn 40, Lab 35, LD 15, Con 10.

[Deleted]

Victoria (Hackney): Lab 63 Grn 25 LD 6 Con 5 WEP 1
Iffley Fields & St Mary's (Oxfordshire): Lab 46 Grn 44 LD 6 Con 4

[Right Leaning]

Hackney: Lab 61, Gn 23, C 8, LD 6, WEP 2.
Oxfordshire: Gn 42, Lab 32, LD 14, C 12.

[Tony Otim]

Hackney: Lab 68.4; Grn 14.7; LD 9.4; Con 6.0; WEP 1.5
Oxfordshire: Lab 47.2; Grn 42.3; LD 6.5; Con 4.0

[robbienicoll]

Victoria, Hackney: Con 8, Lab 64, LD 10, Green 14, WEP 4
Iffley Fields and St Marys, Oxfordshire: Con 7, Lab 44, LD 8, Green 41