piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 26, 2018 19:43:03 GMT
IIRC it's a product of the electronic counting rules in the legislation.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2018 19:45:16 GMT
Can't resist pointing out once more that stage six is both superfluous and ludicrous. IIRC it's a product of the computer code for counting result. Note that at stage 5 the winner does not have 50%+1 of all ballot papers cast so it's possible the computer is trying to find that outcome. So what would happen in a situation where the computer got to the last stage and the only remaining candidate still doesn't have 50% +1 of all ballots cast thanks to non-transferrable votes? Presumably the computer would be ignored and the final candidate declared elected anyway? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Oct 26, 2018 19:47:37 GMT
Or someone would just read out a printout verbatim without thinking and declare "non-transferable" duly elected (leading presumably to an expensive election petition).
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 26, 2018 19:55:07 GMT
Labour win Coatbridge South at 6th preference stage. First preferences below. Absolutely stunning result. Labour - 1355 (41.5%) (+12%) SNP - 1343 (41.1%) (-1.6%) Con - 492 (15.1%) (+3.2%) Green - 47 (1.4%) (+0.4%) UKIP - 14 (0.4%) (+0.4%) LD - 13 (0.4%) (+0.4%) There's no question Labour will be delighted to hold the seat and to top first preferences. As mentioned elsewhere, the former Labour councillors for the ward who stood as North Lanarkshire Independent Alliance secured just over 11% in 2017 so this could be seen as that vote largely reverting to normal and it being an 'as you were' result. If you take a longer term view, Labour won 62% in the previous iteration of Coatbridge South in 2012 and 57% in 2007. The ward changed a bit at the last review with the addition of an area around the Time Capsule leisure centre but was otherwise unchanged. So you could say Labour still haven't regained the 25-30% of their vote that they lost after 2012. The SNP have broadly retained the additional 10% of the total poll they added since 2012. |
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Post by dizz on Oct 26, 2018 20:08:48 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: | Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +1 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| | Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| | UKIP | 14 | 0 14 | -14 |
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| | Lib Dem | 13 | -13 |
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| | Non-transferable |
| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
Nice to see more Greens transferring to Lab. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 26, 2018 20:22:44 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: | Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +1 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| | Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| | UKIP | 14 | 0 14 | -14 |
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| | Lib Dem | 13 | -13 |
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| | Non-transferable |
| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
Nice to see more Greens transferring to Lab. Absolutely. Actually Labour the favourite to transfer to at each stage of the count, albeit from sometimes tiny samples. Please note a slight correction to my OP: transfer to SNP at stage 3 was +2, not +1. (Corrected in OP). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2018 20:53:16 GMT
Nice to see more Greens transferring to Lab. Absolutely. Actually Labour the favourite to transfer to at each stage of the count, albeit from sometimes tiny samples. Please note a slight correction to my OP: transfer to SNP at stage 3 was +2, not +1. (Corrected in OP). quite a large number not transferring |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2018 20:55:49 GMT
Labour win Coatbridge South at 6th preference stage. First preferences below. Absolutely stunning result. Labour - 1355 (41.5%) (+12%) SNP - 1343 (41.1%) (-1.6%) Con - 492 (15.1%) (+3.2%) Green - 47 (1.4%) (+0.4%) UKIP - 14 (0.4%) (+0.4%) LD - 13 (0.4%) (+0.4%) There's no question Labour will be delighted to hold the seat and to top first preferences. As mentioned elsewhere, the former Labour councillors for the ward who stood as North Lanarkshire Independent Alliance secured just over 11% in 2017 so this could be seen as that vote largely reverting to normal and it being an 'as you were' result. If you take a longer term view, Labour won 62% in the previous iteration of Coatbridge South in 2012 and 57% in 2007. The ward changed a bit at the last review with the addition of an area around the Time Capsule leisure centre but was otherwise unchanged. So you could say Labour still haven't regained the 25-30% of their vote that they lost after 2012. The SNP have broadly retained the additional 10% of the total poll they added since 2012. bare in mind where the SNP & Labour are in the scottish polls comparatively to 2012 would you expect Labour to regain the 25-30% it lost in 2012 |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 26, 2018 21:00:21 GMT
There's no question Labour will be delighted to hold the seat and to top first preferences. As mentioned elsewhere, the former Labour councillors for the ward who stood as North Lanarkshire Independent Alliance secured just over 11% in 2017 so this could be seen as that vote largely reverting to normal and it being an 'as you were' result. If you take a longer term view, Labour won 62% in the previous iteration of Coatbridge South in 2012 and 57% in 2007. The ward changed a bit at the last review with the addition of an area around the Time Capsule leisure centre but was otherwise unchanged. So you could say Labour still haven't regained the 25-30% of their vote that they lost after 2012. The SNP have broadly retained the additional 10% of the total poll they added since 2012. bare in mind where the SNP & Labour are in the scottish polls comparatively to 2012 would you expect Labour to regain the 25-30% it lost in 2012 What I'm saying is calling it a "stunning result" as robbienicoll did is relative. It also doesn't show any real sign of a Labour comeback. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 26, 2018 21:17:59 GMT
Or someone would just read out a printout verbatim without thinking and declare "non-transferable" duly elected (leading presumably to an expensive election petition). What actually formally constitutes the declaration of election? The stage announcement, the RO signing a form or what? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 26, 2018 22:00:11 GMT
Or someone would just read out a printout verbatim without thinking and declare "non-transferable" duly elected (leading presumably to an expensive election petition). What actually formally constitutes the declaration of election? The stage announcement, the RO signing a form or what? I would assume the signing of the form. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Oct 26, 2018 22:07:02 GMT
Absolutely. Actually Labour the favourite to transfer to at each stage of the count, albeit from sometimes tiny samples. Please note a slight correction to my OP: transfer to SNP at stage 3 was +2, not +1. (Corrected in OP). quite a large number not transferring I idly wonder whether votes who put Labour sixth and therefore last are nevertheless transferred to Labour at stage six. If these votes are not transferred then it might help to explain the large number. Does anyone know? |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 26, 2018 22:31:22 GMT
The county council (Tory run) seems to have recovered a bit from its extreme unpopularity a few years ago. County council still rather unpopular and the local Conservative MP and Association seems to treat this part of the constituency as a fringe area (some parts of the ward are in fact outside the Bury St Edmunts seat), and in pre referendum days the Lib Dems would have come storming back in its old stronghold in a by-election. Tories ran what seemed a cut and paste campaign which, while avoiding screaming errors was entirely uninspired. Lib Dems did a good enough job in the last week of putting up posters and stakeboards that a casual observer could tell that there was a by-election on in the ward. This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. There was a 9% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in Three Rivers though (and in Sutton). Also I would be pretty sure this by-election was won and lost on the postal votes which tend to be mainly Tory |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,803
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Post by right on Oct 27, 2018 6:13:03 GMT
County council still rather unpopular and the local Conservative MP and Association seems to treat this part of the constituency as a fringe area (some parts of the ward are in fact outside the Bury St Edmunts seat), and in pre referendum days the Lib Dems would have come storming back in its old stronghold in a by-election. Tories ran what seemed a cut and paste campaign which, while avoiding screaming errors was entirely uninspired. Lib Dems did a good enough job in the last week of putting up posters and stakeboards that a casual observer could tell that there was a by-election on in the ward. This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. There was a 9% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in Three Rivers though (and in Sutton). Also I would be pretty sure this by-election was won and lost on the postal votes which tend to be mainly Tory Which is why I said "outside the London suburbs". I did have an expansive version of that in mind which included places like Hertfordshire and Surrey, but admittedly did not make that plain. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 7:16:45 GMT
Great result for the blues in Coatbridge South despite not being remotely in contention.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2018 7:21:17 GMT
County council still rather unpopular and the local Conservative MP and Association seems to treat this part of the constituency as a fringe area (some parts of the ward are in fact outside the Bury St Edmunts seat), and in pre referendum days the Lib Dems would have come storming back in its old stronghold in a by-election. Tories ran what seemed a cut and paste campaign which, while avoiding screaming errors was entirely uninspired. Lib Dems did a good enough job in the last week of putting up posters and stakeboards that a casual observer could tell that there was a by-election on in the ward. This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. There was a 9% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in Three Rivers though (and in Sutton). Also I would be pretty sure this by-election was won and lost on the postal votes which tend to be mainly Tory It was reckoned above that the LibDems had a better campaign than the Tories in this once-LibDem stronghold, and yet they lost it on the PV campaign which suggest a serious campaign weakness. PV campaigning of course not only is about getting key literature to the postal voters in good time to influence their decisions, but also in maximising the potential postal votes in the first place. The latter is of course a long term thing, and the key campaign in that respect probably goes back to the time when the wheels first came off the LD campaign in this division. PVs are always going to be crucial in a rural by-election in late October, and this needs to planned for years in advance, not after the by-election has been called. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2018 7:29:09 GMT
Great result for the blues in Coatbridge South despite not being remotely in contention. Don't see how "not being remotely in contention" can ever be a "great result". Has anyone ever explained to you that the point of election campaigns is to win? (I do know what you mean, but I hear this all the time from my side when they claim an advance from ,say fourth place to third as a great victory) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 7:36:57 GMT
Great result for the blues in Coatbridge South despite not being remotely in contention. Don't see how "not being remotely in contention" can ever be a "great result". Has anyone ever explained to you that the point of election campaigns is to win? (I do know what you mean, but I hear this all the time from my side when they claim an advance from ,say fourth place to third as a great victory) That unnecessary snarky reply is out of character for you. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2018 7:51:14 GMT
Don't see how "not being remotely in contention" can ever be a "great result". Has anyone ever explained to you that the point of election campaigns is to win? (I do know what you mean, but I hear this all the time from my side when they claim an advance from ,say fourth place to third as a great victory) That unnecessary snarky reply is out of character for you. Don't think the reply was intentionally snarky, though it was the thought that it might sound that way that made me add the second paragraph explaining, I hoped,that this wasn't an attack on you personally but more on the attitude generally that seeks satisfaction in small advances, something more characteristic of my lot than yours. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2018 8:04:34 GMT
That unnecessary snarky reply is out of character for you. Don't think the reply was intentionally snarky, though it was the thought that it might sound that way that made me add the second paragraph explaining, I hoped,that this wasn't an attack on you personally but more on the attitude generally that seeks satisfaction in small advances, something more characteristic of my lot than yours. That’s fair enough, I appreciate your explanation. Perhaps I should have expanded and said that compared to the Fortissat by election last year where we performed poorly it was a positive result for us. |
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