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Post by mattb on Oct 26, 2018 8:35:05 GMT
Turnout in Three Rivers Rural 29.7% PVs 64% on-the-day varying between 11% - 39% in different polling districts pretty low for three rivers even if it is a by election Yes - in particular a truly pitiful turnout from the strongest Conservative polling districts. Combined with our candidate clearly winning the contest in Chorleywood South between the two sitting district councillors and a decent turnout in our other stronger areas meant the result was clearer even than we dared to hope. Angela Killick must now be contemplating what it might mean for the defence of her district seat next May. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2018 9:57:47 GMT
Con scrape hold in Bosmere. Strong Lib Dem candidate in pre 2017 Lib Dem stronghold. The county council (Tory run) seems to have recovered a bit from its extreme unpopularity a few years ago. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,623 
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Post by ricmk on Oct 26, 2018 10:53:25 GMT
BASINGSTOKE:
Lab 925
Con 288
Ind 80
LD 64
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Post by hempie on Oct 26, 2018 10:54:15 GMT
Basingstoke turnout 20.04%. Carolyn Wooldridge (lab) won with 925 votes.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 26, 2018 11:11:29 GMT
Decent result for us there.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,623
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Post by ricmk on Oct 26, 2018 11:15:38 GMT
Decent result for us there. Yes - this week's results seem to speak to the polarisation we're seeing across our politics. In particular Labour doing well in defending / strong areas but falling back in areas where some steps forward might have been anticipated. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2018 11:19:14 GMT
Decent result for us there. Yes - this week's results seem to speak to the polarisation we're seeing across our politics. In particular Labour doing well in defending / strong areas but falling back in areas where some steps forward might have been anticipated. don't quite agree. It is true that the typical swing seats of days gone by are polarising and becoming out of reach. But there are also new seats that wouldn't have been marginal in a million years but have become competative. This is true for both Labour and the Tories |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 26, 2018 11:23:44 GMT
BASINGSTOKE: Lab 925 Con 288 Ind 80 LD 64 Labour 68.2% +2.6% Con 21.2 -2.5% Ind 5.9% +2.1% Lib dem 4.7% -0.2% |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,803
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Post by right on Oct 26, 2018 11:46:29 GMT
Con scrape hold in Bosmere. Strong Lib Dem candidate in pre 2017 Lib Dem stronghold. The county council (Tory run) seems to have recovered a bit from its extreme unpopularity a few years ago. County council still rather unpopular and the local Conservative MP and Association seems to treat this part of the constituency as a fringe area (some parts of the ward are in fact outside the Bury St Edmunts seat), and in pre referendum days the Lib Dems would have come storming back in its old stronghold in a by-election. Tories ran what seemed a cut and paste campaign which, while avoiding screaming errors was entirely uninspired. Lib Dems did a good enough job in the last week of putting up posters and stakeboards that a casual observer could tell that there was a by-election on in the ward. This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 26, 2018 11:55:59 GMT
The Conservative result in Wells was a bit better than I expected. A swing to them since 2015
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 26, 2018 12:32:21 GMT
The Conservative result in Wells was a bit better than I expected. A swing to them since 2015 Is it possible that this is a case where the GE boosted the LD performance a bit in 2015 as I imagine there was quite a campaign to save Tessa Munt's seat? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 26, 2018 13:41:54 GMT
The Conservative result in Wells was a bit better than I expected. A swing to them since 2015 Is it possible that this is a case where the GE boosted the LD performance a bit in 2015 as I imagine there was quite a campaign to save Tessa Munt's seat? Quite possibly. In which case the Lib Dems will need to do even better to make progress in May. Of the 2015 defeats, Munt’s was one of the least bad ones |
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Post by stananson on Oct 26, 2018 13:45:32 GMT
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 26, 2018 14:15:08 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: | Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +2 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| | Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 26, 2018 14:33:06 GMT
Ashford, Kennington - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | 2007 result | | Conservative | 247 | 41.5% | -6.7% | -1.6% | unopposed | Ashford independent | 227 | 38.2% | +23.1% | -7.6% |
| Labour | 85 | 14.3% | +1.8% | +3.2% |
| Green | 36 | 6.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -14.9% |
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| -9.4% |
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| Total votes | 595 |
| 42% | 62% | n / a |
Swing Conservative to Ashford independent ~ 15% since 2015 but Ashford Independent to Conservative 3% since 2011 Council now 34 Conservative, 3 Labour, 3 Ashford independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent Basingstoke & Deane - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 925 | 68.2% | +2.6% | +5.5% | +19.2% | +11.4% | Conservative | 288 | 21.2% | -2.5% | +5.0% | -4.4% | +4.8% | Independent | 80 | 5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 64 | 4.7% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.1% | Previous Independent |
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| -3.8% |
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| TUSC |
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| -2.0% | -2.5% | -1.1% |
| UKIP |
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| -13.7% | -14.0% | -22.0% | Green |
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| -5.3% |
| Total votes | 1,357 |
| 75% | 71% | 37% | 67% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~2½% since May, ¼% since 2016, 11¾% since 2015 and 3¼% since 2014
Council now 33 Conservative, 21 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
Dorset, Ferndown - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Conservative | 1,878 | 61.3% | -5.4% | -6.8% | Liberal Democrat | 647 | 21.1% | +10.2% | +10.6% | UKIP | 540 | 17.6% | +0.5% | +1.3% | Labour |
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| -5.3% | -5.0% | Total votes | 3,065 |
| 66% | 69% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 7¾% / 8¾% since 2017
Council now 32 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour, 1 Not specified
East Dorset, Ferndown Central - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 899 | 59.9% | +4.0% | +5.0% | Liberal Democrat | 355 | 23.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 246 | 16.4% | -11.9% | -11.9% | Labour |
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| -15.7% | -16.8% | Total votes | 1,500 |
| 32% | 34% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 26 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat Hertfordshire, Three Rivers Rural - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,846 | 53.4% | +9.5% | Conservative | 1,315 | 38.0% | -9.0% | Labour | 144 | 4.2% | -0.1% | UKIP | 86 | 2.5% | +0.6% | Green | 68 | 2.0% | -1.1% | Total votes | 3,459 |
| 72% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9¼% since 2017 Council now 50 Conservative, 18 Liberal Democrat, 10 Labour
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Oct 26, 2018 14:41:56 GMT
Well in my own neck of the woods it is notable this week to see the Lib Dems taking back second place in Ferndown, which UKIP has occupied for at least the past 5 years, though still quite a strong showing for UKIP, in percentage terms around the same as 2017. The big drop then was Autumn 16 to May 17 and not 17 to now. The Lib Dem candidate also doing quite well for the Town Council, I wonder if he (or any others) will try again next year.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 26, 2018 14:50:37 GMT
Mendip, Wells St Thomas - Liberal democrat hold previous Councillor elected as Liberal Democrat defected to Conservatives | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015"average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 594 | 48.8% | +4.6% | +4.8% | +11.8% | +11.3% | Conservative | 493 | 40.5% | +5.2% | +5.4% | +4.3% | +5.6% | Labour | 131 | 10.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.7% | -1.0% | Green |
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| -20.6% | -20.9% | -15.4% | -15.9% | Total votes | 1,218 |
| 46% | 47% | 54% | 56% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ¼% since 2015 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 3¾% / 2¾% since 2011 Council now 31 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 3 Independent North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South - Labour hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Labour | 1,355 | 41.5% | +12.0% | SNP | 1,343 | 41.1% | -1.6% | Conservative | 492 | 15.1% | +3.2% | Green | 47 | 1.4% | from nowhere | UKIP | 14 | 0.4% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 13 | 0.4% | from nowhere | Independent Alliance |
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| -11.2% | Independent |
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| -4.6% | Total votes | 3,264 |
| 70% |
Swing SNP to Labour ~ 6¾% since 2017 Council now 33 Labour, 31 SNP, 8 Conservative, 5 Independent South Derbyshire, Linton - Conservative hold amended for Labour vote of 316 not 326 previously reported | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 623 | 63.1% | +24.4% | +21.7% | +16.5% | +16.6% | Labour | 316 | 32.0% | +2.1% | +2.7% | -11.2% | -11.0% | Liberal Democrat | 48 | 4.9% | +0.7% | +0.6% | -5.3% | -5.5% | UKIP |
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| -27.2% | -25.0% |
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| Total votes | 987 |
| 37% | 40% | 59% | 60% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 11¼% / 9½% since 2015 and 13¾% since 2011
Council now 21 Conservative, 12 labour, 2 Independent, 1 Vacant
Suffolk, Bosmere - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Conservative | 747 | 45.5% | -0.5% | +18.5% | +18.5% | Liberal Democrat | 726 | 44.2% | +5.4% | +10.3% | +3.5% | Labour | 168 | 10.2% | +2.4% | +0.8% | +5.6% | Green |
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| -7.3% | -6.4% | -14.0% | UKIP |
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| -23.3% |
| Suffolk Together |
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| -13.5% | Total votes | 1,641 |
| 65% | 65% | 51% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 3% since 2017 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 4% since 2013 and 7½% since 2009 Council now 51 Conservative, 11 Labour, 5 Liberal democrat, 4 Independent, 3 Green, 1 West Suffolk Independent Sutton, Belmont - Conservative hold
| Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Conservative | 1,328 | 46.7% | -9.6% | -11.5% | +0.5% | +1.6% | Liberal Democrat | 1,069 | 37.6% | +10.7% | +12.3% | +13.5% | +13.8% | Labour | 303 | 10.7% | -6.1% | -5.8% | -1.2% | -1.2% | Green | 63 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 50 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -16.1% | -17.4% | Christian Peoples Alliance | 30 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,843 |
| 80% | 87% | 78% | 84% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 10¼% / 12% since May and 6½% / 6% since 2014 Council now 33 Liberal Democrat, 18 Conservative, 3 Independent
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Post by La Fontaine on Oct 26, 2018 16:12:59 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: | Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +1 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| | Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| | UKIP | 14 | 0 14 | -14 |
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| | Lib Dem | 13 | -13 |
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| | Non-transferable |
| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
Can't resist pointing out once more that stage six is both superfluous and ludicrous. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 26, 2018 16:59:55 GMT
You are quite right - completely bonkers - but it can be interesting in what it reveals.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 26, 2018 17:03:04 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: | Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +1 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| | Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| | UKIP | 14 | 0 14 | -14 |
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| | Lib Dem | 13 | -13 |
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| | Non-transferable |
| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
Can't resist pointing out once more that stage six is both superfluous and ludicrous. IIRC it's a product of the computer code for counting result. Note that at stage 5 the winner does not have 50%+1 of all ballot papers cast so it's possible the computer is trying to find that outcome. |
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