ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,947
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 27, 2018 8:24:46 GMT
quite a large number not transferring I idly wonder whether votes who put Labour sixth and therefore last are nevertheless transferred to Labour at stage six. If these votes are not transferred then it might help to explain the large number. Does anyone know? The (unnecessary) transfers to Labour at Stage 6 - presumably the computer is trying to get a candidate up to and past the quota - would not exclusively bear the number 6 next to the Labour candidate, I would have thought. In this by-election the majority of the SNP votes after stage 5 presumably were non-continuing (i.e. blank against Labour, or expressed a preference for an already eliminated candidate and which were ultimately blank against Labour), thus giving the 884-521 split? Some of the 521 might be SNP 1, Lab 2, Con 3 or even SNP 1, Con 2, Lab 3, etc. It would be interesting to have anecdotes from party scrutineers at counts such as these as to how easy or hard it is to assess ballot papers with multiple numbers on them, instead of single crosses. The best chance would be at the ballot box opening stage when papers are unfolded and aligned and before they are sent away for scanning. There is a 122-page training manual for count staff here which might give you the answer to your query!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,186
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 27, 2018 9:03:38 GMT
Transfers from North Lanarkshire: Party | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | Lab | 1355 | +5 1360 | +4 1364 | +16 1380 | +169 1549 | + 521 2070 | SNP | 1343 | +1 1344 | +1 1346 | +14 1360 | + 45 1405 | -1405 | C | 492 | +2 494 | +2 496 | + 3 499 | -499 |
| Green | 47 | +3 50 | +1 51 | -51 |
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| UKIP | 14 | 0 14 | -14 |
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| Lib Dem | 13 | -13 |
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| Non-transferable |
| +2 2 | +5 7 | +18 25 | +285 310 | + 884 1194 |
Nice to see more Greens transferring to Lab. Ssshhh! Don't tell anyone - it might disturb the narrative.😉
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2018 9:37:00 GMT
This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. I wonder if the LibDems becoming so exclusively identified as a "strong remain" outfit hasn't helped them in places like this. It saved the party from possible near-extinction at last year's GE, but might now be hindering them from moving forward more generally.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2018 14:49:04 GMT
This really was a Lib Dem failure, despite a very strong candidate and a better campaign than the Tories. The Tories vote came out almost on its own and were not crossing over to the Lib Dems. I'm getting the feeling, with no scientific or objective basis, that Conservative voters are changing their view of the Liberal Democrats, seeing then as being firmly on the left rather than in the centre and so are not nearly as willing to lend their votes to Lib Dems in local elections and bye-elections. We've all noticed that the Conservatives are doing better with working class voters (and worse with middle class voters), but I don't think that the post GE hardening of the Tory vote has been noticed, at least outside the London suburbs. I wonder if the LibDems becoming so exclusively identified as a "strong remain" outfit hasn't helped them in places like this. It saved the party from possible near-extinction at last year's GE, but might now be hindering them from moving forward more generally. In a place where we dropped just short of what was required by a handful of votes, it is obviously true that we could have found some more votes with a different policy position on Europe and they may have been conceivably have been more votes than what we would have lost by backtracking on our USP, but I rather doubt it. I suspect that the suggestion here is that the Lib Dems tailor their message differently to suit different target audiences, but that of course is something the Lib Dems never do . I firmly believe that it is up to the particular candidate to say where they stand on party policy on this (and indeed anything else) and it is vital they are true to themselves and what they believe.
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