Local Council By-elections 11th October

[Tony Otim]

ADUR DC; Southlands (UKIP resigned)
Candidates:
BRADBURY, Andrew John (Green)
NICKLEN, Tony (Conservative)
STAINFORTH, Debs (Labour)

2018: Lab 425; Con 414; LD 69; Grn 57; UKIP 52
2016: UKIP 301; Con 289; Lab 281; LD 95
2014: UKIP 371; Con 353; Lab 220; LD 55; Grn 50
May 13 by: UKIP 354; Lab 254; Con 228; LD 51
2012: Con 329; Lab 321; UKIP 131; LD 85
2010: Con 720; Lab 547; LD 442; UKIP 171
2008: Con 522; Lab 205; LD 110; Grn 87
2006: Con 500; Lab 337; LD 174
2004: Con 555, 517; Lab 535, 498

The Conservative was the runner up here in the last two elections. As far as I can make out the councillor whose resignation caused this by-election was the unsuccessful Tory in 2004. Was elected as a conservative in 2012 (taking over from his wife(?) who had been elected in 2004). He then resigned, fought the by-election in 2013 as UKIP and won and held his seat in 2016.



HALTON UA; Ditton (Lab disq. for non-attendance)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Daniel David (Conservative)
COVENEY, David (Liberal Democrat)
DOURLEY, Edward (Labour)

2018: Lab 934; Ind 575
2016: Lab 1105; Ind 202; Con 171
2015: Lab 2678; Con 748
2014: Lab 1251; Con 318
2012: Lab 1209; Con 286
2011: Lab 1372; Con 494
2010: Lab 2180; Con 925
2008: Lab 650; Con 495; LD 346
2007: Lab 784; Con 485; LD 318
2006: Con 722; Lab 693
2004: Lab 1185, 1051, 884; Con 681



HARTLEPOOL UA; Hart (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BREWER, James (Independent)
HOLT, Michael (Green)
KENDON, Aileen (Labour)
STOKELL, Cameron (Conservatives)

2018: Ind 778; Lab 685; Con 304
2016: Lab 568; UKIP 529; Ind 394; Con 383; Grn 70
2015: Lab 1186; UKIP 981; Con 798; PHF 787; Ind 547
2014: PHF 534; UKIP 446; Ind 435; Lab 376; Con 234
2012: Lab 713, 571, 522; Ind 532, 368, 333, 257; Con 417; PHF 266; UKIP 262

The Labour candidate was the runner-up this May. The Green stood in 2016. The Independent elected in 2012 was the unsuccessful Indy in 2014, 2015 and 2016, but not the one elected this year nor the candidate for this election. The second indy from 2012 was the UKIP candidate in the next 3 elections.

PHF= Putting Hartlepool First



WARRINGTON UA; Penketh & Cuerdley (Lab died)
Candidates:
CROWTHER, David (Liberal Democrat)
DAVIES, Stephanie (Green)
FELLOWS, Geoff (Independent)
HAYWARD, Philip George (Conservative)
WATSON, Kenny (Labour)
WILSON, Ian Anthony (UKIP)

2016: Lab 1622, 1511, 1486; Con 1317, 1087, 1030; LD 254



WEST LANCASHIRE BC; Tanhouse (Lab died)
Candidates:
BLUNDELL, Alexander Lawrence (Conservative)
BODY, Aaron Robert (Independent)
COOPER, Ron (Labour)

2018: Lab 714: Con 125
2015: Lab 1644; Con 316
2014: Lab 759; UKIP 121; Con 74
2011: Lab 726; Con 187
2010: Lab 1416; Con 433
May 08 by: Lab 402; Con 368
2007: Lab 412; Con 180; Grn 89
2006: Lab 482; Con 179; Grn 88
2003: Lab 368; Con 114
2002: Lab 374, 321; Ind 163; Con 129

[The Bishop]

Just for the record, the departing incumbent in Ditton is not our former contributor Cllr Roberts (who was first elected in 2010 and at four year intervals thereafter)

Notable that the Independent has not returned after polling decently earlier this year.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CITY OF LONDON Castle Baynard

Natasha LLOYD-OWEN (Labour Party) 77
Julian Henry MALINS (Independent) 59
Alpa RAJA (Independent) 37
Merlene Soo Chin EMERSON (Independent) 36
Virginia ROUNDING (Independent) 28
Richard William HUMPHREYS (Independent) 23
Deborah Mackintosh OLIVER (Independent) 12
Timothy George Christie BECKER (Independent) 5

Labour gain

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It isn't one of the four semi-official "residential wards". The electorate was 1,598. In 2003 only 16% of the total electorate were residents.

Very detailed ward boundary map: democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/documents/s63807/Castle%20Baynard.pdf

[Davıd Boothroyd]

For what it's worth, these stats for electorate by ward in the City are outdated (I think 2003) but the general picture hasn't changed: democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/documents/s36137/APPENDIX%20A%20-%20Electoral%20information.pdf

[johnloony]

Oct 9, 2018 21:24:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It isn't one of the four semi-official "residential wards". The electorate was 1,598. In 2003 only 16% of the total electorate were residents.

How are the other 84% allowed to vote, if they are not residents?

[finsobruce]

Oct 9, 2018 23:25:01 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 9, 2018 21:24:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It isn't one of the four semi-official "residential wards". The electorate was 1,598. In 2003 only 16% of the total electorate were residents.

How are the other 84% allowed to vote, if they are not residents?

Business votes.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

They are people who work in the ward, nominated by their employers on the basis of the business rates paid by the company. It's a modernised form of business franchise which the City introduced in 2003.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 9, 2018 21:24:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It isn't one of the four semi-official "residential wards". The electorate was 1,598. In 2003 only 16% of the total electorate were residents.

Very detailed ward boundary map: democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/documents/s63807/Castle%20Baynard.pdf

Wow, that's certainly squiggly. Do the two Farringdon wards really have a polyp attached only by a stretch of road? Is there any reason St. Pauls is very carefully delinated to include it in Castle Baynard instead of Bread Street (wonderful name!) that surrounds it on three and a half sides?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 10, 2018 1:30:53 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 9, 2018 21:24:37 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It isn't one of the four semi-official "residential wards". The electorate was 1,598. In 2003 only 16% of the total electorate were residents.

Very detailed ward boundary map: democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/documents/s63807/Castle%20Baynard.pdf

Wow, that's certainly squiggly. Do the two Farringdon wards really have a polyp attached only by a stretch of road? Is there any reason St. Pauls is very carefully delinated to include it in Castle Baynard instead of Bread Street (wonderful name!) that surrounds it on three and a half sides?

It's a slightly cleaned up version of the original ward boundary (updated to match current streets and buildings) but it always included St Paul's Cathedral. There's a ward history here: cbwc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final-Booklet.pdf

The oddest bit of the boundaries is how it almost but not quite cuts Farringdon Without into two parts, with only the width of High Holborn to preserve it as one contiguous area.

[The Bishop]

I would imagine some of the ward branches would be pretty small were the latter the case

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Given that the City has no more electors than a Westminster council ward, and all of the other CLP branches consist of three or four wards, the City Branch is small enough as it is.

[timrollpickering]

Oct 10, 2018 8:12:21 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Oct 10, 2018 1:30:53 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Wow, that's certainly squiggly. Do the two Farringdon wards really have a polyp attached only by a stretch of road? Is there any reason St. Pauls is very carefully delinated to include it in Castle Baynard instead of Bread Street (wonderful name!) that surrounds it on three and a half sides?

It's a slightly cleaned up version of the original ward boundary (updated to match current streets and buildings) but it always included St Paul's Cathedral. There's a ward history here: cbwc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Final-Booklet.pdf

The oddest bit of the boundaries is how it almost but not quite cuts Farringdon Without into two parts, with only the width of High Holborn to preserve it as one contiguous area.

It's also weird that the current boundary cuts through the City of London School, splitting the DT block and playground off from the rest which is in Queenhithe. Although the alternative would involve cutting up the castle site.

[timmullen1]

For the record, Andrew’s Preview of Castle Baynard: britainelects.com/2018/10/08/preview-09-oct-2018/

[Chris from Brum]

And here are his previews for today.

[andrewteale]

I am informed that the independent on Hartlepool is aligned with the council's Indy and UKIP groups and is running a fairly hot campaign.

My Liverpool and Warrington based Facebook friends are being deliciously rude about Rough Green, sorry Hough Green. Apparently it's a stronghold of the Orange Order.

[Chris from Brum]

Orange as in Dale Winton rather than Mason Boyne?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Adur, Southlands is a Labour gain from UKIP

Labour holds in Halton, Ditton and West Lancashire, Tanhouse.

[andrewp]

Adur, Southlands is

Labour 448
Conservative 395
Green 132

[Deleted]

Oct 11, 2018 22:14:57 GMT andrewp said:

Adur, Southlands is

Labour 448
Conservative 395
Green 132

According to my spreadsheet, that works out at around

Lab: 46% (+16.9)
Con: 40.5% (+10.6)
Grn: 13.5% (+13.5)

No UKIP (-31.1%) or LD (-9.8%)

with each number rounded to the nearest 0.1