Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,257
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 12, 2018 15:49:46 GMT
can anyone claim to have had even an inkling that was coming? Well, as I had the highest Independent % and technically 'won' that prediction (although still way out), I suppose I can claim the nearest thing to an inkle. I did find out even before Andrew's Preview that Fellows had beaten Labour in a parish council election earlier this year, and thought he might do well again. However I limited my guess to 20% because a) the parish council ward did not cover the whole of the district council ward b) I reckoned a district contest might be fought on less parochial lines. I was wrong. I'd also reckoned that the save the local library angle might gain him some traction, but like Robert seriously underestimated how much. |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Oct 12, 2018 15:55:44 GMT
We had 3 Independents in play in Warrington, West Lancs and Hartlepool this week. Very difficult to forecast which ones will do well and which ones won’t.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 13, 2018 10:13:37 GMT
The key titbit from Andrew's preview was that he was elected to the parish council in April, so he's a well-known local politician. Also notable that they took roughly equal support from both Labour and Tory. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 14, 2018 6:18:06 GMT
The key titbit from Andrew's preview was that he was elected to the parish council in April, so he's a well-known local politician.By hindsight, that proved right but on the face of it that's a non-sequitur if ever I saw one. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 14, 2018 6:30:43 GMT
We had 3 Independents in play in Warrington, West Lancs and Hartlepool this week. Very difficult to forecast which ones will do well and which ones won’t. All 3 of them maybe did better than expected- Warrington was the total shock, Hartlepool was at least half expected, but even in West Lancs the Indy was expected to battling out with the Tory for last place, but in the end that little fight was no contest and the Tory was left trailing miles behind. Now if the Indy could have won there.... somebody would be forecasting an Indy landslide come the next general election......  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 14, 2018 7:42:23 GMT
We had 3 Independents in play in Warrington, West Lancs and Hartlepool this week. Very difficult to forecast which ones will do well and which ones won’t. All 3 of them maybe did better than expected- Warrington was the total shock, Hartlepool was at least half expected, but even in West Lancs the Indy was expected to battling out with the Tory for last place, but in the end that little fight was no contest and the Tory was left trailing miles behind. Now if the Indy could have won there.... somebody would be forecasting an Indy landslide come the next general election...... Yes. All 3 of those Independents were fairly young men as well. |
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