middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 30, 2020 12:35:33 GMT
What the Government needs is a celebration on being finally free of the shackles of the EU, active measures to stop the arrival of dinghies from France and a successful war with French fishermen, hopefully including a few fishing boats being sunk. Its popularity would soar.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 30, 2020 16:49:10 GMT
Well I thought the first poll in about a year not to show a Tory lead might have caused a comment or two..... Given the monumental incompetence of this government they should be 20 points behind in the polls.
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Post by johnhemming on Aug 30, 2020 16:52:19 GMT
Well I thought the first poll in about a year not to show a Tory lead might have caused a comment or two..... Given the monumental incompetence of this government they should be 20 points behind in the polls. I have not seen evidence that competence is one of Boris' strong points. Presentation is.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 30, 2020 16:55:02 GMT
Given the monumental incompetence of this government they should be 20 points behind in the polls. I have not seen evidence that competence is one of Boris' strong points. Presentation is. And he has been rubbish at that throughout the "crisis".
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 30, 2020 17:02:57 GMT
I have not seen evidence that competence is one of Boris' strong points. Presentation is. And he has been rubbish at that throughout the "crisis". Interestingly so. I agree that it's remarkable that the government is level pegging: I suppose it is the effect of the weakness of my party and the sad state of Labour over the last 10 years that makes it hard for many voters to imagine an alternative to the Conservatives. But I think they can go quite a lot lower once the penny drops. The lack of enthusiasm for this government among the "Tory press" is quite striking.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 30, 2020 17:09:07 GMT
Given the monumental incompetence of this government they should be 20 points behind in the polls. I have not seen evidence that competence is one of Boris' strong points. Presentation is. Was.
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Opinium
Aug 30, 2020 19:59:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by MacShimidh on Aug 30, 2020 19:59:52 GMT
And he has been rubbish at that throughout the "crisis". Interestingly so. I agree that it's remarkable that the government is level pegging: I suppose it is the effect of the weakness of my party and the sad state of Labour over the last 10 years that makes it hard for many voters to imagine an alternative to the Conservatives. But I think they can go quite a lot lower once the penny drops. The lack of enthusiasm for this government among the "Tory press" is quite striking. In the last week I’ve seen articles from both Frederick Forsyth and Nick Ferrari which have basically amounted to “this isn’t the Boris I voted for.” Not representative of much of course, but this sentiment seems to be a widespread one on right-wing Twitter as well. It does seem like Johnson’s legacy is going to be defined by COVID more than most other leaders, in part because he’s one of the few who actually caught the virus. I wouldn’t be surprised if future historians define his career in terms of pre-virus and post-virus, perhaps even more so than pre-Brexit and post-Brexit.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 30, 2020 20:22:14 GMT
Interestingly so. I agree that it's remarkable that the government is level pegging: I suppose it is the effect of the weakness of my party and the sad state of Labour over the last 10 years that makes it hard for many voters to imagine an alternative to the Conservatives. But I think they can go quite a lot lower once the penny drops. The lack of enthusiasm for this government among the "Tory press" is quite striking. In the last week I’ve seen articles from both Frederick Forsyth and Nick Ferrari which have basically amounted to “this isn’t the Boris I voted for.” Not representative of much of course, but this sentiment seems to be a widespread one on right-wing Twitter as well. It does seem like Johnson’s legacy is going to be defined by COVID more than most other leaders, in part because he’s one of the few who actually caught the virus. I wouldn’t be surprised if future historians define his career in terms of pre-virus and post-virus, perhaps even more so than pre-Brexit and post-Brexit. The laugh about that is that it so obviously is.
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Opinium
Aug 31, 2020 9:07:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 31, 2020 9:07:12 GMT
And he has been rubbish at that throughout the "crisis". Interestingly so. I agree that it's remarkable that the government is level pegging: I suppose it is the effect of the weakness of my party and the sad state of Labour over the last 10 years that makes it hard for many voters to imagine an alternative to the Conservatives. But I think they can go quite a lot lower once the penny drops. The lack of enthusiasm for this government among the "Tory press" is quite striking. I'm sure they'd be more enthused if we actually had a Tory government. I'd be willing to accept compromises on fiscal prudency and nannying, though I wouldn't be very happy about it, if that was offset by other things. It does look like they're gearing up for fights on immigration, wokeness, the union and the BBC, and once they start they should get more supportive. The Daily Mail has been cool on Boris for a while though, so don't expect them to go guns blazing for Boris.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2020 10:30:42 GMT
Well I thought the first poll in about a year not to show a Tory lead might have caused a comment or two..... Given the monumental incompetence of this government they should be 20 points behind in the polls. We had enough of this absolutely knackered meme when Corbyn led Labour, tbh Nearly all governments had a major popularity bump at the peak of the virus crisis, pretty much regardless of whether they actually deserved it or not.
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 31, 2020 15:47:05 GMT
What the Government needs is a celebration on being finally free of the shackles of the EU, active measures to stop the arrival of dinghies from France and a successful war with French fishermen, hopefully including a few fishing boats being sunk. Its popularity would soar. I very much fear that you are right. The problem they have of course is that we are not "finally free of the shackles of the EU" if you want to put it like that and all options open to the Government now are pretty dismal both for them and for the rest of us.
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 31, 2020 15:52:08 GMT
At the risk of being tedious I point out again that most Governments get a honeymoon period that lasts for about six months to a year and then declines slowly. After about 18 months there is always a risk of a mid-term collapse. Even with the current "unusual" set of events there is no reason why this should not be the underlying pattern. The first things to show a Government decline are often local government by-elections but we can of course only speculate about what might have been happening with them.
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Post by archaeologist on Sept 13, 2020 7:33:51 GMT
Reversion to something like normality for Opinium after the 'excitement' of the previous poll.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,069
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Post by cogload on Sept 26, 2020 19:23:05 GMT
Lab 42 Cons 39.
Top line figures in the latest poll.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2020 19:28:56 GMT
Is this the first poll to put the LDs behind the SNP?
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 26, 2020 19:41:19 GMT
Is this the first poll to put the LDs behind the SNP? Wait, those numbers seem completely ridiculous. If the SNP are on 6%, then they'd have to be somewhere between 63% and 75% in Scotland (since their 3.9% last time was 45% in Scotland). That seems completely implausible to me, and suggest that those lower figures need to be taken with a bucketload of salt.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,069
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Opinium
Sept 26, 2020 19:48:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Sept 26, 2020 19:48:03 GMT
A couple of polling firms have the SNP on 6% and they did hit that level before in 2019?! Shows the power of a savvy political operation and a flag that La Sturgeon has made more if not bigger screw ups regarding Covid but is rewarded for it. I see she has spent "sleepless nights" thinking about students despite the SNP passing the regulations locking them up. Still that's life.
This pollster is one of our worst however that doesn't detract from the fact we have a mountain to climb.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Sept 26, 2020 19:58:52 GMT
We are four years away from a general election so in many respects the polls are meaningless. I think Labour being ahead will definitely stiffen the resistance Johnson has on the backbenches.
It should also mean that Labour does reasonably well in the elections next year if they go ahead. A majority in Wales should be possible.
Translating support for a party that only contests elections in one part of the country in a national poll is difficult. Though the Lib Dems sinking further into irrelevance is hardly unsurprising.
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Post by justin124 on Sept 26, 2020 21:10:28 GMT
We are four years away from a general election so in many respects the polls are meaningless. I think Labour being ahead will definitely stiffen the resistance Johnson has on the backbenches. It should also mean that Labour does reasonably well in the elections next year if they go ahead. A majority in Wales should be possible. Translating support for a party that only contests elections in one part of the country in a national poll is difficult. Though the Lib Dems sinking further into irrelevance is hardly unsurprising. Under the terms of the FTPA the next election is due on 2nd May 2024 - barely 3 years and 7 months ahead. Indeed we are as close to that date as to the Copeland by election in late February 2017.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,515
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 26, 2020 21:49:25 GMT
We are four years away from a general election so in many respects the polls are meaningless. I think Labour being ahead will definitely stiffen the resistance Johnson has on the backbenches. It should also mean that Labour does reasonably well in the elections next year if they go ahead. A majority in Wales should be possible. Translating support for a party that only contests elections in one part of the country in a national poll is difficult. Though the Lib Dems sinking further into irrelevance is hardly unsurprising. Under the terms of the FTPA the next election is due on 2nd May 2024 - barely 3 years and 7 months ahead. Indeed we are as close to that date as to the Copeland by election in late February 2017.When you put it that way it makes everything happening now seem meaningless to the next election
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