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Post by justin124 on Sept 26, 2020 22:12:14 GMT
Under the terms of the FTPA the next election is due on 2nd May 2024 - barely 3 years and 7 months ahead. Indeed we are as close to that date as to the Copeland by election in late February 2017.When you put it that way it makes everything happening now seem meaningless to the next election Maybe - but we were already 8 months beyond the EU Referendum by that time.
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Post by lackeroftalent on Sept 26, 2020 22:57:18 GMT
Is this the first poll to put the LDs behind the SNP? Wait, those numbers seem completely ridiculous. If the SNP are on 6%, then they'd have to be somewhere between 63% and 75% in Scotland (since their 3.9% last time was 45% in Scotland). That seems completely implausible to me, and suggest that those lower figures need to be taken with a bucketload of salt. If we go to the tables and have the numbers to one decimal point we have nothing between them (SNP 5.6% vs LD 5.4%). In addition, given the small sub sample who will be from Scotland I always assume the SNP figure for British or UK polls will be quite volatile.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 27, 2020 10:02:10 GMT
So we have a poll showing a Labour lead and all people care about is whether the SNP are ahead of the Lib Dems.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 27, 2020 10:08:34 GMT
So we have a poll showing a Labour lead and all people care about is whether the SNP are ahead of the Lib Dems. Talk about prioritise 😜
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2020 10:43:05 GMT
Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls are fairly small, and thus unreliable (even adding on to the caution that should be used with subsamples more generally)
They will also likely tend to exaggerate the position of the dominant party, at present of course the SNP.
(IIRC a Scotland subsample from an Ipsos-MORI survey fairly recently put them on over 70%!)
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Post by greenhert on Sept 27, 2020 11:28:56 GMT
What is most notable about this Opinium poll is the steep drop in Liberal Democrat support amongst Remain voters (20% in December 2019, just 9% now) and an almost as steep drop in Conservative support amongst Leave voters (73% in December 2019, still 64% now but this will make all the difference in more urban red wall seats such as Leigh and Wakefield):
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 27, 2020 12:38:44 GMT
The SNP figure in the GB wide headline numbers is really quite pointless. As is that of Plaid, Yorkshire First and Mebyon Kernow.
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 27, 2020 14:49:20 GMT
What is most notable about this Opinium poll is the steep drop in Liberal Democrat support amongst Remain voters (20% in December 2019, just 9% now) and an almost as steep drop in Conservative support amongst Leave voters (73% in December 2019, still 64% now but this will make all the difference in more urban red wall seats such as Leigh and Wakefield): Interesting. Hope that we begin to see splits for Stay Out and Rejoin, which may give a (slightly?) different picture.
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 27, 2020 15:41:03 GMT
Can someone with more knowledge than me say whether people sampled in England are allowed to opt for the SNP?
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 30, 2020 8:53:50 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2020 10:37:35 GMT
Can someone with more knowledge than me say whether people sampled in England are allowed to opt for the SNP? I think that in most if not all polls, the SNP is not offered as an option outside Scotland (or indeed Plaid in Wales) Anybody wanting to support them outside their respective areas has to choose "other".
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,116
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Post by Jack on Oct 10, 2020 19:02:40 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 10, 2020 19:29:53 GMT
Crossover (LD/Green) didn't last long . . .
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Opinium
Oct 10, 2020 19:35:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 10, 2020 19:35:52 GMT
I took part in this poll. First time for a very very long time (perhaps ever?) that I did not choose Conservative for GE voting intention.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,364
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Post by mboy on Oct 11, 2020 8:05:10 GMT
I took part in this poll. First time for a very very long time (perhaps ever?) that I did not choose Conservative for GE voting intention. Putting your political affiliation in your username doesn't seem so smart now eh?
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Oct 11, 2020 8:09:52 GMT
This poll does not seem to be getting the same media coverage as their last. I wonder why.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2020 8:56:05 GMT
The first Labour lead for over a year was always going to get some coverage, you may as well complain about gravity.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Oct 11, 2020 10:32:55 GMT
The first Labour lead for over a year was always going to get some coverage, you may as well complain about gravity. Of course it is but then when it is reversed a couple of weeks later that too should be reported rather than leaving people with an out-of-date and wrong information. That is my gripe.
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Post by London Lad on Oct 11, 2020 12:29:15 GMT
lack of opposition to Tory decisions and dearth of alternative policies starting to hurt Labour?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,282
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2020 13:19:27 GMT
lack of opposition to Tory decisions and dearth of alternative policies starting to hurt Labour? Statistical noise. We've bobbing around 40-40 for weeks and little is really changing.
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