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Post by justin124 on Jun 29, 2020 10:26:44 GMT
This poll included data which showed Labour 13% ahead of the Tories in the seats lost in 2019. That implies a pro-Labour swing in those seats of circa 10.5% - compared with 4% across GB. On a UNS basis , Labour would recover 50 of the 53 seats lost to the Tories last December . Unclear as to the sample size - but still interesting.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 29, 2020 10:28:18 GMT
But I'm sure the right wing media won't wait until the next GE campaign actually kicks off before slagging off Starmer. (indeed, some of their "outliers" have been trying out the "he let Savile go free/grooming gangs run rampant" lines so popular on the alt-right fringe) You touch on one interesting point though - Blair's really good relations with the press weren't until *after* he won in 1997. He was actually attacked quite a lot as opposition leader, even though people have forgotten that because the Sun backed him in the actual election campaign. My recollection is that there were a few years before where elements of the press were very hostile to Major, especially over Europe, which perhaps was as important in defusing the attack-dog element of the press. Perhaps the smart strategy for Labour is to encourage the Telegraph, Mail and Express to snipe at Johnson over issues that aren't specifically pro-Labour? Not sure how you do it, but there have been several issues recently where this has come up - Barnard Castle - general Covid-19 sloppiness - Jenrick (this plus Cummings' impregnability suggest to me a capacity for what was called "sleaze" under Major, possibly similarly linked to being in office over 10 years) - some unease in e.g. the Telegraph about fiscal probity
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2020 10:31:45 GMT
This poll included data which showed Labour 13% ahead of the Tories in the seats lost in 2019. That implies a pro-Labour swing in those seats of circa 10.5% - compared with 4% across GB. On a UNS basis , Labour would recover 50 of the 53 seats lost to the Tories last December . Unclear as to the sample size - but still interesting. We are talking subsamples here, so as ever a *large* dollop of salt is needed. Maybe not totally meaningless even so, mind.
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Jun 29, 2020 10:54:46 GMT
How do we consider the media nowadays? I realise it’s always difficult to get any agreement on where the supposedly neutral television channels stand - BBC , ITV, Sky and Chanel4, but I’d say it would probably be agreed that Channel4 at least is scarcely favourable to the Tories. And over the last few months of Covid all of their natural instincts to focus on the critical has been damaging to the government , though not motivated by a desire to assist the Labour Party. And they are currently giving Starmer , as is usual for new leaders, an easy time. That will presumably end.
As for the “ right wing press” it’s a bit complicated at present. There’s a strong anti Boris undercurrent in much of it, linked to the still powerful remainer support in ,say The Times. The Mail, which I only look at on line , has been pretty hostile, but will presumably come into line once an election ceases to be in the far distance. The Telegraph can be relied on I think to attack Starmer wherever it can, but how damaging is that? Maybe the Sun still has some potency in that it has readers among natural Labour voters, but is a shadow of what it was. As for the Express , I doubt if it has more influence now on politics than the Racing Post. With the crash in newspaper readership generally its direct influence is hugely diminished. The indirect influence- the stories they highlight, investigations they carry out and debates they launch are largely now only significant where picked up by the broadcast media and then social media. And is there any advantage in that at all to “the right”? I’m doubtful. My guess ( and I may have heard people like John Humphries confirm this) , is that the Guardian, despite its small circulation is far more widely read , and influential, in the BBC than any other publication. I also suspect that social media , especially Twitter, influences and misleads those in the broadcast media as to public opinion , and that this in turn is probably advantageous to “ the left”.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 29, 2020 21:10:55 GMT
This poll included data which showed Labour 13% ahead of the Tories in the seats lost in 2019. That implies a pro-Labour swing in those seats of circa 10.5% - compared with 4% across GB. On a UNS basis , Labour would recover 50 of the 53 seats lost to the Tories last December . Unclear as to the sample size - but still interesting. Does that feel correct to you from your own guts and inclinations? Do you think an election held in mid August would result in at least 50-Labour gains?
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Post by justin124 on Jun 30, 2020 0:08:08 GMT
This poll included data which showed Labour 13% ahead of the Tories in the seats lost in 2019. That implies a pro-Labour swing in those seats of circa 10.5% - compared with 4% across GB. On a UNS basis , Labour would recover 50 of the 53 seats lost to the Tories last December . Unclear as to the sample size - but still interesting. Does that feel correct to you from your own guts and inclinations? Do you think an election held in mid August would result in at least 50-Labour gains? That has to be uncertain to a great extent. The 4% swing indicated by the national GB data implied over 40 Labour gains overall with the Tories falling back to 320 seats and Hung Parliament territory. The subsample though appears to go a lot further than that by suggesting 50 Labour gains from the 53 seats lost in December 2019 - before considering the possibility of gains in seats which had not been Labour-held - such as Chipping Barnet - Wycombe - Woodford Green & Chingford - Hastings & Rye etc. On the other hand, if the former Labour seats have swung back to the extent of circa 10.5% , the swing in the other seats would have to be much lower than the overall GB swing of 4%. I do not disagree at all, however, with the message that subsamples are to be viewed with caution! To answer your question fairly directly, I would not be surprised if a hypothetical early election came up with a national result not too far removed from the 2017 outcome - ie a Tory vote share lead in low single figures.
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Post by archaeologist on Jul 5, 2020 6:53:41 GMT
The latest from Opinium.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 18, 2020 20:32:31 GMT
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Opinium
Jul 24, 2020 12:26:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Jul 24, 2020 12:26:19 GMT
Interesting that VI now asks about the great dividing line of our times; car ownership.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 25, 2020 20:22:49 GMT
Exact reverse of last week.
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 1, 2020 16:29:40 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 1, 2020 16:29:58 GMT
Hardly worth all the effort was it?
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 1, 2020 16:43:27 GMT
Hardly worth all the effort was it? That guy in Wales would have trailed it as an 'earth shattering polling event - can you wait?!!'.
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 1, 2020 16:58:22 GMT
Hardly worth all the effort was it? That guy in Wales would have trailed it as an 'earth shattering polling event - can you wait?!!'. Sorry Finso
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2020 10:20:07 GMT
No survey from Opinium this weekend, they have moved (back) to fortnightly polling.
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 9, 2020 16:06:05 GMT
Will anyone notice?
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Opinium
Aug 15, 2020 22:19:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 15, 2020 22:19:34 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 29, 2020 20:10:18 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2020 11:35:11 GMT
Well I thought the first poll in about a year not to show a Tory lead might have caused a comment or two.....
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 30, 2020 12:29:57 GMT
It will get the bubble brigade wittering. There must be a chance that sooner or later the Tory vote will collapse, give all the background indicators. My guess is that we are a few months off that happening but who knows.
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