The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 25, 2024 11:59:37 GMT
I’ll leave it to you to argue over “this lead is unchanged from last week” 😉 Schroedinger's poll change
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 9, 2024 21:01:39 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,246
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 20, 2024 12:19:32 GMT
Looks like fun:
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Post by timmullen on Mar 23, 2024 21:39:10 GMT
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,866
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Apr 6, 2024 21:47:54 GMT
LAB: 41% (=) CON: 25% (=) RFM: 11% (=) LDM: 10% (=) GRN: 8% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 3-5 Apr. Changes w/ 20-22 Mar.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2024 9:02:42 GMT
Well that was exciting.
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by msc on Apr 7, 2024 11:05:01 GMT
Hah, I'd be able to cope with a sixteen point Labour lead and this decades level of tactical voting on election night tbf.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 7, 2024 11:33:58 GMT
Slack water. Posted in fond memory of a former poster.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 20, 2024 19:44:26 GMT
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Post by batman on Apr 20, 2024 20:13:16 GMT
steady as she goes
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 20, 2024 21:01:14 GMT
Slack water. Posted in fond memory of a former poster. Always good to remember Tony Greaves, and not wanting to spoil the joke, but "slack water" means a period between tides when no movement is visible, before the tide turns. Serious question: do we expect any change to come? Do we expect a narrowing the polls (an ebb in the Labour tide)? Or maybe a further shift in the other direction - is there a floor for the Tories below where they are now?
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Apr 20, 2024 22:42:38 GMT
I think Tony would have argued that the current polling pattern may be shaken by the local election results, but apart from the likely amplification of the tide, don’t expect too much. He also might have observed that Edward Davey was crap, comparing him in unflattering terms to both Steel and Thorpe.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 21, 2024 6:08:50 GMT
I think there is too much excited talk about Liberal Democrat gains given the low polling figures - struggling to reach 10%. People aren't going to have a damascene conversion to tactical voting once a date is set for the General Election. It's like 2015, when there was widespread argument that the Liberal vote would hold up in the seats they held, despite some basic arithmetic showing this would require zero or negative votes in most of the country.
My guess is that the Liberal Democrats will remain under 20 seats, with many present hopes dashed, as the Conservatives hold seats on a low share of the vote, with a significant rise in Labour and Reform votes.
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 937
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Post by hengog on Apr 21, 2024 7:29:28 GMT
I think there is too much excited talk about Liberal Democrat gains given the low polling figures - struggling to reach 10%. People aren't going to have a damascene conversion to tactical voting once a date is set for the General Election. It's like 2015, when there was widespread argument that the Liberal vote would hold up in the seats they held, despite some basic arithmetic showing this would require zero or negative votes in most of the country. My guess is that the Liberal Democrats will remain under 20 seats, with many present hopes dashed, as the Conservatives hold seats on a low share of the vote, with a significant rise in Labour and Reform votes. Liked , possibly influenced by hope more than any certainty. These are strange times when I’m not sure how much we can rely on any precedents. . The governing party seems incapable of going a week without some event inspiring further unpopularity, the main opposition enjoys a huge lead but without any popular enthusiasm I can detect for it or its leader. (It doesn’t feel anything like 1987). The minor parties too seem peculiarly unattractive , for differing reasons, for the ‘ floating voter’. The only guess I would make at this stage is a record low poll.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,301
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Opinium
Apr 21, 2024 7:43:58 GMT
via mobile
Post by Tony Otim on Apr 21, 2024 7:43:58 GMT
I think there is too much excited talk about Liberal Democrat gains given the low polling figures - struggling to reach 10%. People aren't going to have a damascene conversion to tactical voting once a date is set for the General Election. It's like 2015, when there was widespread argument that the Liberal vote would hold up in the seats they held, despite some basic arithmetic showing this would require zero or negative votes in most of the country. My guess is that the Liberal Democrats will remain under 20 seats, with many present hopes dashed, as the Conservatives hold seats on a low share of the vote, with a significant rise in Labour and Reform votes. Liked , possibly influenced by hope more than any certainty. These are strange times when I’m not sure how much we can rely on any precedents. . The governing party seems incapable of going a week without some event inspiring further unpopularity, the main opposition enjoys a huge lead but without any popular enthusiasm I can detect for it or its leader. (It doesn’t feel anything like 1987). The minor parties too seem peculiarly unattractive , for differing reasons, for the ‘ floating voter’. The only guess I would make at this stage is a record low poll. I'm not sure - turnout will probably be down, but patchily so and whilst what you say is true about the parties, there is/will be some enthusiasm for getting thr bastards out which will get people to the polls. It'll possibly be the next election which will have the record low turnout... As to the Lib Dems, we shall see - I certainly don't think they're heading for 50+ seats and being the official opposition as suggested in some of the wilder MRPs. However there must be a number of seats they gain solely on basis on the Tory vote collapsing and as we've seen in by-elections (albeit a GE is a very different beast) they can take seats whilst polling this low, so I'd guess something in 20-30 seats range is certainly possible.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,288
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Apr 21, 2024 8:17:30 GMT
I think there is too much excited talk about Liberal Democrat gains given the low polling figures - struggling to reach 10%. People aren't going to have a damascene conversion to tactical voting once a date is set for the General Election. It's like 2015, when there was widespread argument that the Liberal vote would hold up in the seats they held, despite some basic arithmetic showing this would require zero or negative votes in most of the country. My guess is that the Liberal Democrats will remain under 20 seats, with many present hopes dashed, as the Conservatives hold seats on a low share of the vote, with a significant rise in Labour and Reform votes. You may be right, but it is also consistent with the polling evidence that they are doing terribly outside their target seats (which means in about 90% of the country) and doing better in the seats which actually matter to them. The one recent constituency poll of one of their target seats (Godalming & Ash) showed them ahead, more because of a Tory collapse than a particularly strong Lib Dem showing, and while it wouldn't be wise to rely too much on that as evidence it does show how they might gain seats without an impressive vote share result. I don't think they're doing a very good job at the moment at making a general case to vote for them rather than Labour other than the tactical one, but it's not clear how much that matters, at least in the short term, given their current targeting strategy. My guess if current polling is accurate is that their result will look a bit like 1997 in the sense that there will be some impressive gains where they successfully harness the tactical vote, some less impressive gains where they manage to win by standing still as the Tory vote falls past them, and some disappointments where the tactical argument fails to cut through and they fall behind Labour in seats where they might have hoped to win. How many seats they win may depend more on how badly the Tories do in seats in the middle category more than on the Lib Dems' own national performance.
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 937
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Post by hengog on Apr 21, 2024 9:00:08 GMT
It must be almost as frustrating being a Liberal Democrat at the moment as it is being a conservative! With the government as unpopular as it is and with a deeply uninspiring Labour Party, they must feel that if they only had the kind of leadership they always enjoyed when times were far more difficult for them ! Instead- Ed Davey and…..assorted nonentities. But not quite as frustrating I must concede. I was with some old colleagues at a dinner the other day. This being very much the old ‘Education establishment’ I was in a small minority , possibly of one, among a gathering of the Left( I can imagine their writhing embarrassment this morning at Starmers latest crude appeal to the ‘ traditional Tory voter’ by his pretended flag waving enthusiasm for StGeorges day! ). Some simply loathed him , some had some pale admiration for his political instincts and ruthlessness, none were fans! Most lamented that once again that when the wheel of fortune offered the opportunity for a Labour government, the party was in the hands of its right wing. I was struck afresh how fragile the Labour coalition is in reality, bound together solely by a desire to hold it together to win the election. In which at least they show more gumption than the Conservatives to be sure.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 21, 2024 9:05:59 GMT
I think there is too much excited talk about Liberal Democrat gains given the low polling figures - struggling to reach 10%. People aren't going to have a damascene conversion to tactical voting once a date is set for the General Election. It's like 2015, when there was widespread argument that the Liberal vote would hold up in the seats they held, despite some basic arithmetic showing this would require zero or negative votes in most of the country. My guess is that the Liberal Democrats will remain under 20 seats, with many present hopes dashed, as the Conservatives hold seats on a low share of the vote, with a significant rise in Labour and Reform votes. You may be right, but it is also consistent with the polling evidence that they are doing terribly outside their target seats (which means in about 90% of the country) and doing better in the seats which actually matter to them. The one recent constituency poll of one of their target seats (Godalming & Ash) showed them ahead, more because of a Tory collapse than a particularly strong Lib Dem showing, and while it wouldn't be wise to rely too much on that as evidence it does show how they might gain seats without an impressive vote share result. I don't think they're doing a very good job at the moment at making a general case to vote for them rather than Labour other than the tactical one, but it's not clear how much that matters, at least in the short term, given their current targeting strategy. My guess if current polling is accurate is that their result will look a bit like 1997 in the sense that there will be some impressive gains where they successfully harness the tactical vote, some less impressive gains where they manage to win by standing still as the Tory vote falls past them, and some disappointments where the tactical argument fails to cut through and they fall behind Labour in seats where they might have hoped to win. How many seats they win may depend more on how badly the Tories do in seats in the middle category more than on the Lib Dems' own national performance. Interesting. Seems to me that target seats will be limited - that sounds ok. About 30 or so? What other seats probably won't win?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 21, 2024 11:36:18 GMT
At the moment the LibDems are becalmed (they must be pretty keen for a Hazel Grove byelection to actually happen!) but it is still very plausible that the increased coverage and publicity means they increase their support during the actual election campaign - if so, a national vote share similar to 2019 is surely possible. And if so, they could hardly fail to gain significantly even in the highly unlikely event they *weren't* targeting any better than last time.
It maybe shouldn't be presumed that any such uptick in support would just come from Labour voters either....
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 21, 2024 11:48:04 GMT
I think Tony would have argued that the current polling pattern may be shaken by the local election results, but apart from the likely amplification of the tide, don’t expect too much. He also might have observed that Edward Davey was crap, comparing him in unflattering terms to both Steel and Thorpe. We would expect nothing less!
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