ICM

[The Bishop]

Your summary is correct if you are taking into account final polls only - but it skips over the fact, for instance, that Harris were a joke pollster for most of the campaign

[marksenior]

Mar 13, 2013 11:26:23 GMT The Bishop said:

Your summary is correct if you are taking into account final polls only - but it skips over the fact, for instance, that Harris were a joke pollster for most of the campaign

Another table which I cannot find at the moment shows that over the whole 2005 to 2019 parliament ICM polls had around half the extreme ranges of all the other pollsters .

[Deleted]

Mar 12, 2013 18:52:00 GMT The Bishop said:

I agree about their past record - but think their decision to stick to their past methods despite the changed political landscape post 2010 GE is questionable.

Why? Its worked for both high and low swing elections. Id be willing to bet it works again.

[Deleted]

Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress
Sounds like an interesting ICM/Sun Tel poll coming later about relative standings of Tories and UKIP...

[Deleted]

From the Telegraph, think a Wisdom Poll

Today’s ICM poll shows Labour six points ahead of the Tories when voters are asked to predict the result of the next general election. Ed Miliband’s party is on 36 per cent with the Conservatives on 30 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent.


the so called big news is on a number of policies right of centre voters prefer UKIP over Tories

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9935179/Ukip-steals-a-march-on-Tories.html

[Pimpernal]

That really does have to be the biggest bollocks poll for quite some time... so more people than indicate they'd vote Lib dem think the Lib dems will form the next govt? And 17% think 'other' than the main 3? OK if tht's people assuming a hung / coalition result, but otherwise ' wtbjf?

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
New ICM phone poll sees CON 32+1: LAB 38-1: LD 15nc: Ukip 9+2 - which is the biggest share yet from the firm..

Of course this will get certain people juicing ...

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
ICM asked how people would vote if Maggie was leader and found: CON 40: LAB 37: LD 11: Ukip 5.

why 4% of LD's would go Tory I do not know, UKIP makes sense and no difference to LAB

[Andrew_S]

"why 4% of LD's would go Tory I do not know, UKIP makes sense and no difference to LAB".

Probably because a small minority of LDs are fairly right-wing.

[Deleted]

yeah maybe but the poll is a new one, polling on dead leaders ...

Wonder if they should do a faceoff between Atlee and Thatcher or just rerun 1945 and 1950 again ?

[Tony Otim]

Regrettably I suspect there is far too much ignorance as to who Atlee was and what he achieved to make any such poll meaningful.

[The Bishop]

And the question that ICM actually asked *was* meaningful??

An absolutely astonishing act from a pollster that increasingly seems to be losing its bearings (like the paper it reports for)

[marksenior]

Apr 16, 2013 10:02:08 GMT The Bishop said:

And the question that ICM actually asked *was* meaningful??

An absolutely astonishing act from a pollster that increasingly seems to be losing its bearings (like the paper it reports for)

ICM as with other pollsters , will ask the questions that their customer is paying for .

[The Bishop]

Seriously, I always thought the pollsters had *some* discretion over that. You can imagine some of the stuff that might appear if they didn't??

[marksenior]

Apr 16, 2013 14:10:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Seriously, I always thought the pollsters had *some* discretion over that. You can imagine some of the stuff that might appear if they didn't??

Clearly , they would not ask questions that broke the guidelines laid down by the BPC .

[Deleted]

who knows what to expect from ICM

Martin Boon @martinboon
Jaw dropping @icmresearch @gdnpolitics @guardian_clark poll in the books.

[Deleted]

so what would be 'jaw dropping' ?

UKIP second or over 20% ?

Tories leading Labour ?

A Labour 20% lead ?

who knows ?

Well for a couple of hours

[Devonian]

May 13, 2013 15:44:26 GMT @ianrobo said:

so what would be 'jaw dropping' ?

UKIP second or over 20% ?

Tories leading Labour ?

A Labour 20% lead ?

who knows ?

Well for a couple of hours

The first possibility I think UKIP are already the majority of the way there. I suspect it shows UKIP over 20% if this doesn't happen today it will happen soon. UKIP second I'd be surprised at but given the recent YouGov poll showing tories only having a ten point lead over UKIP (and given that YouGov tends to show UKIP lower than some other polls) I don't think it's impossible. If it doesn't happen today I think it likely to happen at some point before 2015 and perhaps soon.

The second suggestion I'll eat my hat.

Labour 20% lead. Again I'd be surprised but I don't think impossible, especially if the first is also true.

[Deleted]

I would imagine UkIP to overtake the Libdems and be around 17%.

[middleenglander]

Lab 34, Con 28, UKIP 18, LD 11, Others 9

[Deleted]

to put that in contest

CON 28-4, LAB 34-4, LD 11-4, Ukip 18+9.

you could ask where the other 3% has gone