ICM

[Andrew_S]

Feb 11, 2013 16:23:45 GMT john07 said:

Feb 11, 2013 16:19:13 GMT @ianrobo said:

LAb 41 Con 29 LD 13 UKIP 9

biggest lab lead in a decade witht he gold standard

It all shows what a 'bounce' the Conservatives got from Dave's EU speech?

A bit silly but applying this poll to Eastleigh you get the following:

LD 35.9%
Con 31.3%
Lab 20.9%
UKIP 9.3%

[Deleted]

-3 down on the month and even the LD's slipping on a pollster their supporters have said have the redistribution correct.

[Deleted]

reading polling report comments, apparently Labour lead with 51/26 with women

[marksenior]

Latest ICM/Guardian poll

Lab 39 minus 2
Con 31 plus 2
LDem 15 plus 2
UKIP 7 minus 2
Others 8

[Deleted]

The guardian headline on this is laughable as all those movements are within MOE

[The Bishop]

UKIP down 2 and the LibDems at 15?? I smell b***shit.....

[Deleted]

Anthony Wells has again shown the truth of this poll compared to the headline. You could swap the smaller parties around a bit but think the shares for the top two are about right. Tories in most polls have been around 29-32% and ICM have always allocated more to LD's over labour when compared to the others.

[Deleted]

Interesting tweet I just saw

Reading Labour Party @readinglabour
#ICM has CON 31 (-8), LAB 39 (+3), LD15 (nc), UKIP 7 (+6) tonight, the change is shown from the same poll 12 months ago.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 11, 2013 20:18:58 GMT The Bishop said:

UKIP down 2 and the LibDems at 15?? I smell b***shit.....

Probably, but perhaps no more so than the Opinium one with UKIP on 17%.

[Deleted]

Mar 11, 2013 20:18:58 GMT The Bishop said:

UKIP down 2 and the LibDems at 15?? I smell b***shit.....

How tirelessly predictable of you.

[Deleted]

Mar 11, 2013 20:15:59 GMT @ianrobo said:

The guardian headline on this is laughable as all those movements are within MOE

So how come each and every one gets the full Ianrobo treatment? Most of the movement in the past 18-24 months has been within MOE.

[Deleted]

does it ? I do not believe I have ever lauded one poll over another but look at them in general. In general they show between a 8-11% Labour lead and the tories and labour on pretty consistent ratings.

[marksenior]

Mar 11, 2013 20:34:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 11, 2013 20:18:58 GMT The Bishop said:

UKIP down 2 and the LibDems at 15?? I smell b***shit.....

Probably, but perhaps no more so than the Opinium one with UKIP on 17%.

Au contraire , Opinium are back to the polls of the late 80's early 90's with no weighting for past vote and the added problem of Online samples which are prone to worse sampling errors than telephone pollsters .

[The Bishop]

Mar 11, 2013 20:39:06 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Mar 11, 2013 20:18:58 GMT The Bishop said:

UKIP down 2 and the LibDems at 15?? I smell b***shit.....

How tirelessly predictable of you

So you think that UKIP is down on last month, when all other polls show them significantly up?? Nope, its just dear old ICM doing their own thing again.....

[Richard Allen]

Mar 12, 2013 10:46:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Mar 11, 2013 20:39:06 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

How tirelessly predictable of you

So you think that UKIP is down on last month, when all other polls show them significantly up?? Nope, its just dear old ICM doing their own thing again.....

ICM have a pretty good track record. I take their polls far more seriously than some of newbies polling companies.

[The Bishop]

I agree about their past record - but think their decision to stick to their past methods despite the changed political landscape post 2010 GE is questionable.

[marksenior]

Mar 12, 2013 18:52:00 GMT The Bishop said:

I agree about their past record - but think their decision to stick to their past methods despite the changed political landscape post 2010 GE is questionable.

I recall exactly the same criticisms of ICM in the last parliament and they still ended up with a more accurate final poll than most other pollsters .

[Sibboleth]

But they still sucked.

[Richard Allen]

Mar 12, 2013 18:52:00 GMT The Bishop said:

I agree about their past record - but think their decision to stick to their past methods despite the changed political landscape post 2010 GE is questionable.

It might be questionable but until we see what happens at the next election we won't know if they were right or wrong to do so.

[marksenior]

Mar 12, 2013 19:21:26 GMT Sibboleth said:

But they still sucked.

No they didn't , they were the 2nd most accurate pollster behind the Indian pollster RNB . Phone pollsters occupied the top 4 positions and of the Online pollsters Harris crept in 5th place .