ICM

[Harry Hayfield]

I have been tracking ICM's polls since the last election (working on the assumption that they are the most accurate out of the lot of them). When a new poll is published I look at the numbers that are published on the page before the summary and have come up with the following data for November 2012.

Labour 43% Conservatives 31% Liberal Democrats 10% Others 16%

with the Others made up of:

Plaid Cymru 1.69% SNP 3.81% Greens 2.33% United Kingdom Independence Party 7.20% British National Party 0.21% Others 1.06%

which gives Labour a 12% lead indicating a swing from Con to Lab of 10%

[Deleted]

I did ask this of another poster who put up about polls. But is there section for voting intentions as in certainty to vote. Is this made up of people to vote only or from everyone they asked? Is the group of people unlikely to vote or don't knows growing?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nov 28, 2012 11:48:49 GMT justlooking said:

I did ask this of another poster who put up about polls. But is there section for voting intentions as in certainty to vote. Is this made up of people to vote only or from everyone they asked? Is the group of people unlikely to vote or don't knows growing?

Most ask about it. The algorithm for applying relative turnout to the voting intention result is different for different pollsters.

[marksenior]

Nov 28, 2012 11:43:07 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I have been tracking ICM's polls since the last election (working on the assumption that they are the most accurate out of the lot of them). When a new poll is published I look at the numbers that are published on the page before the summary and have come up with the following data for November 2012.

Labour 43% Conservatives 31% Liberal Democrats 10% Others 16%

with the Others made up of:

Plaid Cymru 1.69% SNP 3.81% Greens 2.33% United Kingdom Independence Party 7.20% British National Party 0.21% Others 1.06%

which gives Labour a 12% lead indicating a swing from Con to Lab of 10%

Why would you want to take the figures from Britain's top pollster and mangle them so you use figures part way through rheir calculations ?

[Harry Hayfield]

Nov 28, 2012 12:55:46 GMT marksenior said:

Nov 28, 2012 11:43:07 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I have been tracking ICM's polls since the last election (working on the assumption that they are the most accurate out of the lot of them). When a new poll is published I look at the numbers that are published on the page before the summary and have come up with the following data for November 2012.

Labour 43% Conservatives 31% Liberal Democrats 10% Others 16%

with the Others made up of:

Plaid Cymru 1.69% SNP 3.81% Greens 2.33% United Kingdom Independence Party 7.20% British National Party 0.21% Others 1.06%

which gives Labour a 12% lead indicating a swing from Con to Lab of 10%

Why would you want to take the figures from Britain's top pollster and mangle them so you use figures part way through rheir calculations ?

Mangle them? I don't mangle them at all. I want to know how Plaid Cymru are doing and the page before the summary is the page that shows how many people in that sample said Plaid Cymru.

[marksenior]

Nov 28, 2012 16:21:04 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Nov 28, 2012 12:55:46 GMT marksenior said:

Why would you want to take the figures from Britain's top pollster and mangle them so you use figures part way through rheir calculations ?

Mangle them? I don't mangle them at all. I want to know how Plaid Cymru are doing and the page before the summary is the page that shows how many people in that sample said Plaid Cymru.

But the 8 people in the survey who said Plaid is not necessarily the figure used in ICM;s final calculation of VI . The 8 is 8 out of 473 respondents in that table , It is also 8 out of 561 respondents in Table 2 . We do not know whether it is still 8 out of 699 in ICM's final VI calculation .

[cibwr]

I remember one Welsh poll that showed that about 27% of the people of Merthyr were pro independence... I suspect we are dealing with a small sample and sampling error.

[The Bishop]

This months ICM has unchanged figures from last month - Lab 40 Con 32 LibDem 13.

ICM were, of course, the last pollster to show a Tory lead - in March this year, just days before Osborne's (in)famous budget.

[The Bishop]

January ICM survey:

Lab 38 (-2)
Con 33 (+1)
LibDem 15 (+2)
UKIP 6 (-1)

For comparison, ICM recorded 4 five point leads in a row last summer/autumn. And I see they are bigging up the LibDems again

[Deleted]

Who is bigging up the Lib Dems? We have a friend?!

[The Bishop]

Tbf, YouGov are generally showing you up a bit as well. But ICM have a past record on this to live down

[Deleted]

I asked this on the YouGov thread, but does anyone have any thoughts as to what accounts for this slight upturn in LibDem support recently?

[Andrew_S]

Tories are 1% ahead with men and 16% behind Labour with women:

www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/01/21/the-latest-icm-phone-poll-finds-that-the-lab-lead-is-down-3-to-just-5-percent/#disqus_thread

[The Bishop]

An oddity in this latest survey - the reported figures are the Tories just ahead (36-35) amongst men, but trailing Labour by 45-29 with women.......

An unusually large gender gap in itself - but how, exactly, does it equate to a five point margin overall??

[Andrew_S]

Jan 21, 2013 16:48:39 GMT The Bishop said:

An oddity in this latest survey - the reported figures are the Tories just ahead (36-35) amongst men, but trailing Labour by 45-29 with women.......

An unusually large gender gap in itself - but how, exactly, does it equate to a five point margin overall??

I think ICM only uses people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote so on this occasion more men must have been in that category than women.

[Deleted]

which is nonsense actually because in my view Women are more likely to vote.

[Andrew_S]

Jan 21, 2013 17:05:29 GMT @ianrobo said:

which is nonsense actually because in my view Women are more likely to vote.

In the last few elections the turnout was slightly higher amongst men than women so it could be right.

Another thing of course is that the pollsters round down the percentages so the 5% Tory lead could in fact be as high as 5.49% which is obviously closer to the 7.5% average for both men and women.

[Sibboleth]

It is not good to be so credulous.

[Deleted]

CON 29(-4): LAB 41(+2): LD 12(-2): Ukip 9(+3)

biggest lab lead in a decade witht he gold standard

[john07]

Feb 11, 2013 16:19:13 GMT @ianrobo said:

LAb 41 Con 29 LD 13 UKIP 9

biggest lab lead in a decade witht he gold standard

It all shows what a 'bounce' the Conservatives got from Dave's EU speech?