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Post by andrewp on Jun 4, 2024 18:30:32 GMT
Labour 42% (-2)
Conservative 28% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Green 4%
fieldwork (31 May - 2 June 2024)
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2024 17:50:25 GMT
LAB: 46% (+4)
CON: 26% (-2)
RFM: 11% (+2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @savanta_UK, 5-7 Jun.
Changes w/ 31 May - 2 Jun.
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Post by batman on Jun 8, 2024 18:23:55 GMT
Labour rather high, the Tories higher than in most current polls & Reform unusually low for current polls. Labour would be extremely happy to get 46% in a general election.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 8, 2024 18:32:25 GMT
I know it's Comedy Results, but LOL.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 8, 2024 18:39:18 GMT
Labour rather high, the Tories higher than in most current polls & Reform unusually low for current polls. Labour would be extremely happy to get 46% in a general election. Savanta Comres - like Survation - give us UK rather than GB data. The GB equivalent would be Lab 47% Con 27%. |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 8, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
Labour rather high, the Tories higher than in most current polls & Reform unusually low for current polls. Labour would be extremely happy to get 46% in a general election. Reform seemingly are not prompted. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 11, 2024 18:39:39 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 11, 2024 19:20:42 GMT
This is UK data so the GB equivalent would be Lab 45% Con 26%.
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Post by batman on Jun 12, 2024 7:27:27 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2024 11:33:37 GMT
Worth remembering that Muslim support for Labour in 2019 was actually higher than usual - 63% is a bit below the norm but not massively so.
How accurate this polling actually is, though, is the real question. It may still underplay Independents performing strongly in a few seats.
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Post by kevinf on Jun 12, 2024 17:12:39 GMT
Worth remembering that Muslim support for Labour in 2019 was actually higher than usual - 63% is a bit below the norm but not massively so. How accurate this polling actually is, though, is the real question. It may still underplay Independents performing strongly in a few seats. Yes, I think it depends on whether there is an organised, high profile “Gaza” candidate or not. I haven’t seen any news from Dewsbury & Batley, for example. |
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Post by Johncrane on Jun 12, 2024 17:21:19 GMT
Worth remembering that Muslim support for Labour in 2019 was actually higher than usual - 63% is a bit below the norm but not massively so. How accurate this polling actually is, though, is the real question. It may still underplay Independents performing strongly in a few seats. Yep that's a good point. Akhmed Yakoob in opinion polling for the west midlands mayoral elections was projected to get around 3-5%. In the end he got 11.9%. I think george galloway in one constituency opinion poll for the batley and spen by election was at 6%, he got 21% on the night. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,733
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 12, 2024 21:40:03 GMT
Worth remembering that Muslim support for Labour in 2019 was actually higher than usual - 63% is a bit below the norm but not massively so. How accurate this polling actually is, though, is the real question. It may still underplay Independents performing strongly in a few seats. Yep that's a good point. Akhmed Yakoob in opinion polling for the west midlands mayoral elections was projected to get around 3-5%. In the end he got 11.9%. I think george galloway in one constituency opinion poll for the batley and spen by election was at 6%, he got 21% on the night. Indeed, but lower turnout makes the committed vote higher than it might be in a higher turnout General Election. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2024 17:33:43 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 18:57:30 GMT
yikes. those results aren't funny. Well they could be depending on your political preferences & your views vis a vis the accuracy of pollsters
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 15, 2024 19:02:46 GMT
yikes. those results aren't funny. Well they could be depending on your political preferences & your views vis a vis the accuracy of pollsters It's Comedy Results. It'll be a version of regression toward the mean. |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 19:50:32 GMT
Their results are usually similar to those of at least one or two other pollsters, and sometimes those pollsters include some with quite solid reputations. Of course I used the word funny precisely because they are nicknamed Comedy Results.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2024 21:44:28 GMT
Their proving to be the most accurate pollster this time round would be another contribution to the banter timeline, mind.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 18, 2024 18:31:59 GMT
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 18, 2024 19:13:50 GMT
Methodology has changed - full ballot prompt. |
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