johng
Labour
Posts: 4,510
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Post by johng on Jun 16, 2021 10:27:13 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 22, 2021 18:52:40 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 23, 2021 8:56:41 GMT
Third consecutive poll to put the LDs on 10%
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 23, 2021 11:49:56 GMT
Third consecutive poll to put the LDs on 10% Fieldwork started before most people knew anything about C&A.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2021 11:58:08 GMT
Nonetheless it looks like the Lib Dems have got a boost from Chesham and Amersham, but only a small one.
I looked back at the opinion polling at the time of the Eastbourne byelection in 1990 and found the Lib Dems got no particular poll boost from that - my memory had exaggerated it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2021 12:00:45 GMT
I thought they had got a small one, but of course it wasn't long before the big Tory boost after Thatcher went negated any gains that they had made.
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 23, 2021 16:20:20 GMT
Nonetheless it looks like the Lib Dems have got a boost from Chesham and Amersham, but only a small one. I looked back at the opinion polling at the time of the Eastbourne byelection in 1990 and found the Lib Dems got no particular poll boost from that - my memory had exaggerated it. Average Lib Dem support 2/7/90 - 1/9/90 - 8.7% 3/9/90 - 13/10/90 - 11% After the by-election 22/10/90 - 15/11/90 - 13.4% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_electionNot bad for a "Dead Parrot"! It's likely that the events of the early autumn in 1990 would have begun to shift things a little their way - they would have had their party conference which normally gives them a small boost as they at least get a mention in the media and I suspect there was a bit of in-fighting among the Tories etc. But that is s a 22% increase on the polling immediately before the election and 55% over their summer polling. And they were on a "run" of polls of 14%-15% before the Tories had the bad grace to ditch Thatcher! And the Tories went back into the lead after that! It has to be said that there were some weird polls at the time with apparently Audience Selection reporting the Lib Dems on 6% and 15% two days apart (before the by-election)! While the Lib Dems might expect a bit more of a poll boost than the 3 so far have given - even a 2% increase is mildly encouraging because as people have pointed out most of the fieldwork will have been done before the by-election and even for that which was done after the by-election most will not have seen the news and it takes some days before it percolates into people's consciences. And of course people don't wake up and think - gosh I was supporting party X yesterday and today I will be supporting Party Y today!. First people didn't think yesterday how they were voting. And today they will be more concerned about getting to work (or switching on the computer), getting the kids to school etc. etc. Most people I hate to break it to people here are not political obsessives! But it will gently percolate through to people and put the Lib Dems on a slightly higher level - may be up 4% before sliding back a bit. And a 4% rise in the polls is around 50% more people voting for them! And also they will crowbar themselves into some more media coverage, their will be a spring in the step of their activists etc. For example apparently Mark Pack (Lib Dem President) has pointed out that the Guardian managed an article on C&A just 3 weeks before the election - with no mention of the Lib Dem at all! An accurate piece of reporting - not! www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/27/voters-weigh-up-cummings-revelations-before-crucial-byelectionsH/t www.markpack.org.uk/167625/a-good-by-election-result-for-the-opinion-pollsters/And of course that's the real boost to the Lib Dems that it saw off the "Dead Parrot" tag and will make them more relevant this time. So far this year: Average support Jan 21 - Local elections 21 7.2% After the locals - C&A by-election 7.9% So far after C&A 10% If they start to average 12% that will be pretty good (a 50%+ increase in support) but obviously quite a long way off where they would like to be!
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 23, 2021 19:57:56 GMT
Nonetheless it looks like the Lib Dems have got a boost from Chesham and Amersham, but only a small one. I looked back at the opinion polling at the time of the Eastbourne byelection in 1990 and found the Lib Dems got no particular poll boost from that - my memory had exaggerated it. Average Lib Dem support 2/7/90 - 1/9/90 - 8.7% 3/9/90 - 13/10/90 - 11% After the by-election 22/10/90 - 15/11/90 - 13.4% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_electionNot bad for a "Dead Parrot"! It's likely that the events of the early autumn in 1990 would have begun to shift things a little their way - they would have had their party conference which normally gives them a small boost as they at least get a mention in the media and I suspect there was a bit of in-fighting among the Tories etc. But that is s a 22% increase on the polling immediately before the election and 55% over their summer polling. And they were on a "run" of polls of 14%-15% before the Tories had the bad grace to ditch Thatcher! And the Tories went back into the lead after that! It has to be said that there were some weird polls at the time with apparently Audience Selection reporting the Lib Dems on 6% and 15% two days apart (before the by-election)! While the Lib Dems might expect a bit more of a poll boost than the 3 so far have given - even a 2% increase is mildly encouraging because as people have pointed out most of the fieldwork will have been done before the by-election and even for that which was done after the by-election most will not have seen the news and it takes some days before it percolates into people's consciences. And of course people don't wake up and think - gosh I was supporting party X yesterday and today I will be supporting Party Y today!. First people didn't think yesterday how they were voting. And today they will be more concerned about getting to work (or switching on the computer), getting the kids to school etc. etc. Most people I hate to break it to people here are not political obsessives! But it will gently percolate through to people and put the Lib Dems on a slightly higher level - may be up 4% before sliding back a bit. And a 4% rise in the polls is around 50% more people voting for them! And also they will crowbar themselves into some more media coverage, their will be a spring in the step of their activists etc. For example apparently Mark Pack (Lib Dem President) has pointed out that the Guardian managed an article on C&A just 3 weeks before the election - with no mention of the Lib Dem at all! An accurate piece of reporting - not! www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/27/voters-weigh-up-cummings-revelations-before-crucial-byelectionsH/t www.markpack.org.uk/167625/a-good-by-election-result-for-the-opinion-pollsters/And of course that's the real boost to the Lib Dems that it saw off the "Dead Parrot" tag and will make them more relevant this time. So far this year: Average support Jan 21 - Local elections 21 7.2% After the locals - C&A by-election 7.9% So far after C&A 10% If they start to average 12% that will be pretty good (a 50%+ increase in support) but obviously quite a long way off where they would like to be! Prepare for Government!!!!!!!
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 23, 2021 21:37:07 GMT
I thought they had got a small one, but of course it wasn't long before the big Tory boost after Thatcher went negated any gains that they had made. Eastbourne did lead to a short period of polls above 10%, but it was the Ribble Valley by-election in March 1991 which made the big difference, with all the polls after that up to the 92 election and probably up to 2010 having us solidly in double figures.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 29, 2021 14:19:41 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Jul 6, 2021 13:00:23 GMT
🔵Con 41 (-1) 🔴Lab 35 (+2) 🟠LDM 8 (-1) 🟢Grn 4 (-1) 🟡SNP 3 (-1) ⚪️Other 9 (+1)
2-4 July
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Post by gibbon on Jul 6, 2021 14:58:01 GMT
Labour up and Conservatives down for the second successive time. Hancock backlash, Labour hold at Batley and Spen. Is this the start of a trend?
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Post by gibbon on Jul 6, 2021 14:59:43 GMT
Labour up and Conservatives down for the second successive time. Hancock backlash, Labour hold at Batley and Spen. Is this the start of a trend?
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 14, 2021 13:59:06 GMT
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Post by gibbon on Jul 14, 2021 16:06:26 GMT
This appears to be the most favourable poll for Labour for some time. The polls this week show a decline in the Conservative vote. Is Boris's allure to the voters starting to wear off? Lib Dem and Green up but how will this play if and when we have another byelection?
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Post by justin124 on Jul 14, 2021 18:24:52 GMT
This appears to be the most favourable poll for Labour for some time. The polls this week show a decline in the Conservative vote. Is Boris's allure to the voters starting to wear off? Lib Dem and Green up but how will this play if and when we have another byelection? On its own this is a fairly encouraging poll for Labour - in that it includes a Green vote of 6% which at a GE could well be squeezed to nearer 3%.A 5% Tory lead is narrower than what resulted from the elections of 2010 and 2015 Other polls,however, still show more comfortable Tory leads.
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Post by robert1 on Jul 22, 2021 13:40:47 GMT
Latest Poll which ComRes regard as part of their Political Tracker series.
Con 41 (+1) Lab 34 (-1) LD 8 (-1) Grn 5 (-1)
Fieldwork 16-18.7
Comparison with political tracker 11-13.6
There are some interesting, but probably not surprising, comparable favourability ratings re Matt Hancock
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 22, 2021 14:17:54 GMT
BES pooled estimates:-
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 22, 2021 15:16:52 GMT
Latest Poll which ComRes regard as part of their Political Tracker series. Con 41 (+1) Lab 34 (-1) LD 8 (-1) Grn 5 (-1) Fieldwork 16-18.7 Comparison with political tracker 11-13.6 There are some interesting, but probably not surprising, comparable favourability ratings re Matt Hancock Why do Comres take so long to crunch their figures compared to the others?
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 27, 2021 16:43:20 GMT
Latest Poll which ComRes regard as part of their Political Tracker series. Con 41 (+1) Lab 34 (-1) LD 8 (-1) Grn 5 (-1) Fieldwork 16-18.7 Comparison with political tracker 11-13.6 There are some interesting, but probably not surprising, comparable favourability ratings re Matt Hancock Why do Comres take so long to crunch their figures compared to the others? And then longer still to actually publish the full results. Their website still does not have the tables for either this poll or its immediate predecessor on it yet.
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