Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,117
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Post by Jack on May 26, 2020 15:03:55 GMT
I think people need to get a grip. This really isn't as significant as it's being made out to be. Ohhhh....it's bigger... It's a story to people who already hate Cummings and are looking for a reason to get rid of him. Therefore, not a story.
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Post by manchesterman on May 26, 2020 15:08:12 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land the Tories were relected in 1992 after the government cut interest rates and taxes at the same time that led to the housing crash Not a "catastrophic economic world meltdown" though. I'm comarping with 1945 and 2010 really, where massive swings against the govt of the day occurred even though they had no control of the reasons for those economic collapses.
"Enough people lose their jobs /massive pay cuts = governments fault. End of." is how most people think
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,069
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on May 26, 2020 15:11:25 GMT
It's a story to people who already hate Cummings and are looking for a reason to get rid of him. Therefore, not a story. Let us play a game for a moment shall we? Let us give the various journalists credit that they are faithfully reporting the truth and that various MP's are being accurate when reporting that their inboxes are full on this subject. So if one MP received say 800 emails on Cummings, are we stating that every single one of those people a) knew of Cummings and b) hated him before the Mirror/Guardian scoop? Anecdotally people who I work with who show no interest in politics are taking the piss out the situation, which in the long term is worse.
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Post by greenhert on May 26, 2020 16:46:17 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something.Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! Larger majorities than that were overturned twice in just 6 years-a Conservative majority of 100 in 1959 was overturned in 1964 and a Labour majority of 96 was overturned in 1970.
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Post by tonygreaves on May 26, 2020 16:49:23 GMT
Lots of exciting discussion about this Comres Poll. Has no-one actually posted the actual figures here? Or is here something I cannot see???
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 26, 2020 17:04:31 GMT
I think people need to get a grip. This really isn't as significant as it's being made out to be. As usual people are making the mistake of thinking that just because many think the government is wrong on a particular matter that it will be a significant factor in how people vote. Yes a lot of people are annoyed about this but when they walk into a polling station in 2024 the number of people who will be thinking "I was going to vote Tory but won't because Cummings broke the lockdown" is statistically insignificant. The economy post Brexit and COVID is going to a huge factor and no doubt other things will come up that we can't even come close to guessing about. Only a handful of obsessive will still be bothered about this.
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 26, 2020 17:23:17 GMT
It's a story to people who already hate Cummings and are looking for a reason to get rid of him. Therefore, not a story. of course it's a story. Don't be so blinkered. Any event that leads to such a dramatic change in polling in a single day is a story. But sure carry on kidding yourself if you want. How many of the people who think that these events are unimportant actually go out & canvass, talk to voters? Genuinely interested. Not much chance of canvassing at the moment, but I really do think this one is cutting through even (or perhaps especially) with people who don't even know who Cummings is or what he actually does.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,588
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Post by Rural Radical on May 26, 2020 18:54:21 GMT
Indeed. I said in another thread that no government to my knowledge has ever been re-elected following a catastrophic economic meltdown (whether their fault or not) so I dont see why this one should be any different. Esp now that the main opposition have an "acceptable" leader to the floating voters of the land An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something. Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! Didn’t Labour’s 1964 win overturned a larger majority?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 19:10:55 GMT
An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something. Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! Didn’t Labour’s 1964 win overturned a larger majority? no i don't think so
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on May 26, 2020 19:28:49 GMT
Baldwin won a majority of two hundred and nine in 1924. Didn’t Labour’s 1964 win overturned a larger majority? no i don't think so The Conservative majority at the 1959 election was one hundred. And the Labour majority in 1966 was ninety eight.
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,588
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Post by Rural Radical on May 26, 2020 19:29:30 GMT
Didn’t Labour’s 1964 win overturned a larger majority? no i don't think so Wasn’t the Tory majority in 1959 ? I think it was whittled down a bit through that parliament
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,588
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Post by Rural Radical on May 26, 2020 19:31:27 GMT
Baldwin won a majority of two hundred and nine in 1924. The Conservative majority at the 1959 election was one hundred. And the Labour majority in 1966 was ninety eight. I thought it was. Though the circumstances are different as there was no SNP or Plaid and the Liberals has about 6 seats.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on May 26, 2020 19:38:22 GMT
Well the thing about First Past The Post is that it doesn't actually have rules, even if it does have tendencies. And that a tendency of a lot of politicians to confuse a tendency for a rule is how things often go very wrong.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,053
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 26, 2020 19:43:31 GMT
An 80-seat majority being overturned would be quite something.Actually, what's the biggest majority that's been overturned at the following election? I'm sure someone here will know! Larger majorities than that were overturned twice in just 6 years-a Conservative majority of 100 in 1959 was overturned in 1964 and a Labour majority of 96 was overturned in 1970. 1970 is usually quoted as the last time since the late 1800s(I forget which election) where a government with a working majority at the dissolution was replaced with a government with a working majority(in an ordinary peacetime situation so forgetting 1900 to 1906 or 1935 to 1945)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 19:56:02 GMT
Baldwin won a majority of two hundred and nine in 1924. The Conservative majority at the 1959 election was one hundred. And the Labour majority in 1966 was ninety eight. my mistake
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,053
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 26, 2020 20:28:34 GMT
Baldwin won a majority of two hundred and nine in 1924. The Conservative majority at the 1959 election was one hundred. And the Labour majority in 1966 was ninety eight. Imagine an opposition party overturning a 200 plus majority in one parliament now to end up the largest party at the next one as LAbour did in 1929!
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 26, 2020 20:40:42 GMT
I would suggest that the extreme volatility of the electorate, combined with the specific factors of the last election (Corbyn, Corbyn adjacent stuff, Brexit etc) should mean people should not start with the assumption that a big swing in Labour’s favour is very difficult to achieve.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2020 17:38:41 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 22, 2020 18:38:36 GMT
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Post by robert1 on Aug 19, 2020 14:04:48 GMT
Not much change in latest poll
Con 42 Lab 37 LD 7 Oths 14
14-16th Aug
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