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Post by mrhell on Mar 31, 2015 15:05:58 GMT
Genuinely hilarious Scottish sub-sample here (based on literally dozens of people) as well I was looking for this poll last night until I realised it was only a sub-sample of below 100.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 31, 2015 16:26:35 GMT
Genuinely hilarious Scottish sub-sample here (based on literally dozens of people) as well Meanwhile, there has been a ComedyResults poll for London - Lab 46 Con 32 UKIP 9 LibDem 8 Green 4. Probably no more reliable, unfortunately. I can't for one minute believe that nearly every other London voter is going for Labour, every third vote for the Tories, and that only 4% will go for the Greens.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2015 16:30:58 GMT
I can believe that the Greens have slipped a bit but yes, that looks like junk, much like all of the other junk this company puts out.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 31, 2015 16:51:27 GMT
Genuinely hilarious Scottish sub-sample here (based on literally dozens of people) as well Meanwhile, there has been a ComedyResults poll for London - Lab 46 Con 32 UKIP 9 LibDem 8 Green 4. Probably no more reliable, unfortunately. I can't for one minute believe that nearly every other London voter is going for Labour, every third vote for the Tories, and that only 4% will go for the Greens. I think our London-only polling (not that there's been much of it) has been less good than our GB-wide polling over the last 12 months. I don't know whether that's genuine, due to the pollsters who've done London polls being less good for us, or due to sampling error. It does seem somewhat unlikely, given that London is the region with our best demographics. But then maybe London feels more connected to Westminster, and is therefore less likely to support the either of the two anti-politics-as-usual parties, than other regions.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 31, 2015 17:03:24 GMT
I can't for one minute believe that nearly every other London voter is going for Labour, every third vote for the Tories, and that only 4% will go for the Greens. I think our London-only polling (not that there's been much of it) has been less good than our GB-wide polling over the last 12 months. I don't know whether that's genuine, due to the pollsters who've done London polls being less good for us, or due to sampling error. It does seem somewhat unlikely, given that London is the region with our best demographics. This is exactly what I expected. I will be shocked if London and Sussex, alongside Bristol, don't see your highest vote.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2015 17:08:34 GMT
I think our London-only polling (not that there's been much of it) has been less good than our GB-wide polling over the last 12 months. I don't know whether that's genuine, due to the pollsters who've done London polls being less good for us, or due to sampling error. It does seem somewhat unlikely, given that London is the region with our best demographics. This is exactly what I expected. I will be shocked if London and Sussex, alongside Bristol, don't see your highest vote. The Greens do pretty poorly with ethnic minorities dont they? That might be an answer.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2015 17:21:34 GMT
In the Euros London was the third best Green region, after the South West and South East. It was not that far ahead of Eastern either.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 31, 2015 19:27:49 GMT
Yes, London has both the Greens' best and worst demographics. Not sure I believe 4% in the polls now though (though I'd believe it at campaign end.)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 31, 2015 19:43:28 GMT
Yes, London has both the Greens' best and worst demographics. Not sure I believe 4% in the polls now though (though I'd believe it at campaign end.) The Green percentage is difficult to benchmark because it seems to vary considerably depending on the type of election - even when the exact same people vote. 2012 Mayor: 4.5% 2012 London Assembly list: 8.5% 2012 London Assembly constituencies: 8.5%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 31, 2015 19:46:07 GMT
Yes, London has both the Greens' best and worst demographics. Not sure I believe 4% in the polls now though (though I'd believe it at campaign end.) The Green percentage is difficult to benchmark because it seems to vary considerably depending on the type of election - even when the exact same people vote. 2012 Mayor: 4.5% 2012 London Assembly list: 8.5% 2012 London Assembly constituencies: 8.5%Is that last one accurate - we surely did better on the list than in the constituencies?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 31, 2015 19:47:27 GMT
The Green percentage is difficult to benchmark because it seems to vary considerably depending on the type of election - even when the exact same people vote. 2012 Mayor: 4.5% 2012 London Assembly list: 8.5% 2012 London Assembly constituencies: 8.5%Is that last one accurate - we surely did better on the list than in the constituencies? I just worked it out myself. The average was considerably boosted by a very good performance in North East constituency (Hackney, Islington and Waltham Forest) where the Green candidate got nearly 30,000 votes.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 10, 2015 1:27:55 GMT
Out yesterday: Conservative - 34% (-2%) Labour - 33% (+1%) Lib Dem - 12% (+3%) UKIP - 12% (-) Green - 4% (-1%) Others - 6% (-1%) 'This is the first time since September 2013 that UKIP have failed to outpoll the Liberal Democrats.' Going to have to start calling ComRes the 'gold standard' ...
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 10, 2015 19:13:41 GMT
Out yesterday: Conservative - 34% (-2%) Labour - 33% (+1%) Lib Dem - 12% (+3%) UKIP - 12% (-) Green - 4% (-1%) Others - 6% (-1%) 'This is the first time since September 2013 that UKIP have failed to outpoll the Liberal Democrats.' Going to have to start calling ComRes the 'gold standard' ... May I mention my (previously much-mocked) Double Crossover?
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 10, 2015 19:19:44 GMT
Out yesterday: Conservative - 34% (-2%) Labour - 33% (+1%) Lib Dem - 12% (+3%) UKIP - 12% (-) Green - 4% (-1%) Others - 6% (-1%) 'This is the first time since September 2013 that UKIP have failed to outpoll the Liberal Democrats.' Going to have to start calling ComRes the 'gold standard' ... May I mention my (previously much-mocked) Double Crossover? No. Not yet.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 14, 2015 16:17:35 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2015 16:26:21 GMT
Phone pollster in thinking phone polls are better shock.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 14, 2015 16:40:44 GMT
Dare one even ask, but is there any actual evidence for such a claim?
(and have ComRes given up on their online surveys now?)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2015 17:27:16 GMT
Comres are just pointing out a difference, not stating that one is unambigously better than the other.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 14, 2015 17:42:54 GMT
Smithson hits back with a barchart:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2015 18:48:48 GMT
Comres are just pointing out a difference, not stating that one is unambigously better than the other. Hmm, I think there is a pretty strong steer to the notion that phone polls are more accurate, eg the headline and the references to selected polls where phones allegedly did better.
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