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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 14, 2015 19:32:38 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,391
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2015 11:13:23 GMT
Latest phone survey, which will now be weekly until the GE:
Lab 35 (+3) Con 35 (+1) UKIP 10 (-3) LibDem 8 Green 7 (-1)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 25, 2015 17:51:58 GMT
Looks very much like the squeeze on the smaller parties noted by Davıd Boothroyd on the YouGov polls.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 29, 2015 20:13:48 GMT
New ComRes coming at 2200 hours BST.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 29, 2015 21:01:44 GMT
ComRes for the Daily Mail and ITV news
Conservatives 36% (+1) Labour 32% (-3) UK Independence Party 12% (+2) Liberal Democrats 9% (+1) Green Parties 5% (-2)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 21:39:04 GMT
The polls are all over the place. When was this one conducted?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 21:45:55 GMT
Fieldwork yesterday and today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 21:48:16 GMT
Fieldwork yesterday and today. Cheers.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Mar 29, 2015 21:51:47 GMT
All quite consistent with Lab and Con being on 34%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 29, 2015 21:53:34 GMT
Some pretty odd things in the crossbreaks: www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ITV-News-Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_30th-March-2015_1749.pdfThe Conservatives are tied with Labour among men but 9% ahead with women. Most polls in this Parliament have shown Labour doing better with women than men. The Conservatives have a 22% lead over Labour among 18-24 year old voters; in fact UKIP is in second place in this age group. Labour is only 3% behind among AB voters, but 12% behind among C1s and 9% behind among C2s.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 21:58:33 GMT
Some pretty odd things in the crossbreaks: www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ITV-News-Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_30th-March-2015_1749.pdfThe Conservatives are tied with Labour among men but 9% ahead with women. Most polls in this Parliament have shown Labour doing better with women than men. The Conservatives have a 22% lead over Labour among 18-24 year old voters; in fact UKIP is in second place in this age group. Labour is only 3% behind among AB voters, but 12% behind among C1s and 9% behind among C2s. That stinks as a poll. Don't the pollsters check when there are some pretty odd findings like this.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 29, 2015 22:07:11 GMT
Looks very rum to me. A total outlier.
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Post by mrhell on Mar 29, 2015 22:15:41 GMT
Wait for the next one from them!
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seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 631
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Post by seanf on Mar 30, 2015 7:11:36 GMT
Sub-samples are tiny and have a huge margin of error.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 30, 2015 8:17:07 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 30, 2015 11:09:08 GMT
That stinks as a poll. Don't the pollsters check when there are some pretty odd findings like this. Anthony Wells of YouGov commented on a rogue poll of theirs a few years ago. He said they tripple checked and quadruple checked all the data. After which they just had to go ahead and publish. There was nothing wrong with the method, it was just an unusual sample. With sample based statistics, sometimes odd things happen.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,391
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 30, 2015 11:14:22 GMT
I wonder if some of the strange subsamples with this survey are connected with it being done *only* over a weekend (a rare event in polling)?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,391
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2015 10:40:19 GMT
Genuinely hilarious Scottish sub-sample here (based on literally dozens of people) as well Meanwhile, there has been a ComedyResults poll for London - Lab 46 Con 32 UKIP 9 LibDem 8 Green 4. Probably no more reliable, unfortunately.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 31, 2015 10:42:41 GMT
What was the scottish sub sample resul;t?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,391
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2015 10:44:04 GMT
Tories second on about a quarter of the vote, ahead of Labour.
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