Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2014 19:29:49 GMT
Now that's an eyebrow-raising Green figure...... Anthony Wells says that they must be applying a much harsher turnout threshold for Green and UKIP voters than for Labour, the Lib Dems, or the Tories. For UKIP this is counterbalanced by including them in the main prompt. For us, not so much. Easy to understand the thinking, but they'll find out if they're right come polling day..
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,801
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 14, 2014 19:34:39 GMT
All published polls these days (and this is true in basically all countries that have them) are based on assumptions made by the polling firms as much as anything else. Often this seems to work out all right. Sometimes (USA Midterms this year, say) it results in much embarrassment.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 15, 2014 22:09:30 GMT
Good poll for the Lib Dems
Comres/Independent phone poll
Lab 32% (+1) Con 29% (+1) UKIP 16% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 5% (-2)
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Post by Devonian on Jan 17, 2015 19:41:18 GMT
ComRes IoS/S Mirror Online poll
Lab 34% (nc) Con 33% (nc) UKIP 18% (nc) L Dem 7% (-1) Green 3% (+1)
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 26, 2015 21:42:58 GMT
ComRes phone poll due at 10pm. Rumour that UKIP are on 17%.
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Post by Devonian on Jan 26, 2015 22:01:03 GMT
Con 31% (+2) Lab 30% (-2) UKIP 17%(+1) LD 8%(-4) Grn 7%(+2)
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Post by Devonian on Jan 26, 2015 22:02:33 GMT
ComRes phone poll due at 10pm. Rumour that UKIP are on 17%. Seems the rumour was right. UKIP average for four polls out so far today 17%
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Post by Devonian on Feb 13, 2015 17:14:38 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 13, 2015 17:15:26 GMT
A ComRes/ITV News poll of 40 key marginals:
Lab 40 Con 31 UKIP 15 LD 8 GRN 5
Labour up, Conservatives static and UKIP down since November. Reported with due deference to the fact that polls of marginals in the 1980s proved very erratic and were a poor guide to what actually happened in general elections.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 13, 2015 18:00:00 GMT
Same problems as individual constituency polling. Where these diverge from standard national polls, I'd ignore the marginals polling!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 13, 2015 20:06:49 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2015 19:31:45 GMT
ComRes IoS/S Mirror online poll
Lab 34% (nc) Con32% (-1) UKIP 16% (-2) L Dem 7% (nc) Green 4% (+1)
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Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2015 19:45:10 GMT
The Tories had been hoping for 'crossover' in the polls with Labour late last year. Then they were hoping that January would be the crossover month. I also read somewhere the Lynton Crosby had told Conservative MPs to expect crossover in February.
We're now halfway through February, six weeks away from the dissolution of Parliament and there is still no sign of crossover.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 14, 2015 22:12:04 GMT
The Tories had been hoping for 'crossover' in the polls with Labour late last year. Then they were hoping that January would be the crossover month. I also read somewhere the Lynton Crosby had told Conservative MPs to expect crossover in February. We're now halfway through February, six weeks away from the dissolution of Parliament and there is still no sign of crossover. Let us postulate no crossover at all. Then go further and imagine an average 3-point Labour lead in late March. Then elements of panic at Conservative HQ with possible change to Election Plan B. What do you think will be the theme of the Cameron/Crosby Election Plan B?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,768
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 15, 2015 14:55:46 GMT
The Tories had been hoping for 'crossover' in the polls with Labour late last year. Then they were hoping that January would be the crossover month. I also read somewhere the Lynton Crosby had told Conservative MPs to expect crossover in February. We're now halfway through February, six weeks away from the dissolution of Parliament and there is still no sign of crossover. Let us postulate no crossover at all. Then go further and imagine an average 3-point Labour lead in late March. Then elements of panic at Conservative HQ with possible change to Election Plan B. What do you think will be the theme of the Cameron/Crosby Election Plan B? They have a Plan A? ?
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Post by Devonian on Feb 23, 2015 15:49:20 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,801
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 23, 2015 16:34:27 GMT
That's wonderful news (said no one ever).
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Post by Devonian on Feb 23, 2015 22:04:30 GMT
Con 34% (+3) Lab 32% (+2) UKIP 13% (-4) L Dem 8% (nc) Green 8% (+1)
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Post by justin124 on Feb 23, 2015 23:51:38 GMT
Greens appear to be on 8% (up 1) Others on 6% (down 1)
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Post by Devonian on Feb 23, 2015 23:56:15 GMT
Greens appear to be on 8% (up 1) Others on 6% (down 1) Quite right. Corrected
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