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Post by Rutlander on Jun 28, 2022 7:54:22 GMT
I suspect that in this context "red wall" now means any seat won from Labour by a Conservative in 2019 (plus Hartlepool)
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Post by stb12 on Jun 28, 2022 8:19:10 GMT
I suspect that in this context "red wall" now means any seat won from Labour by a Conservative in 2019 (plus Hartlepool) Red Wall Kensington
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,371
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Post by YL on Jun 28, 2022 8:19:44 GMT
Someone's been through the possibilities based on the Telegraph story: Of course it's possible that someone planning to defect would try to avoid giving it away and stay apparently loyal, but this does show how few plausible-seeming candidates there are if we're looking at male "red wall" MPs as per the Telegraph. Anyone describing High Peak as “Red Wall” should both visit it (a pleasure, not a punishment) and examine its electoral history. Indeed, but I don't trust a Telegraph journalist to have done either of those things. The Telegraph story (quoted by Harry Hayfield on the last page) referred to the North which I imagine is why the West Brom seats etc. have been excluded. The north Staffs seats are pretty dubious as well on that criterion, but I can just about see them being counted as Northern.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 28, 2022 8:30:03 GMT
I suspect that in this context "red wall" now means any seat won from Labour by a Conservative in 2019 (plus Hartlepool) Red Wall Kensington If being a Labour constituency for two years with a majority of twenty doesn't make a constituency a 'red wall' seat, I don't know what does.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 28, 2022 11:47:10 GMT
No way Gullis or Anderson would either attempt to join Labour, or in the case of Anderson be accepted back into the party. Though when Gullis resigned his council seat in Warwickshire, he did endorse the Labour candidate.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2022 12:18:38 GMT
If being a Labour constituency for two years with a majority of twenty doesn't make a constituency a 'red wall' seat, I don't know what does. Twenty "lifelong Labour voters" no doubt.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2022 12:20:28 GMT
Someone's been through the possibilities based on the Telegraph story: Of course it's possible that someone planning to defect would try to avoid giving it away and stay apparently loyal, but this does show how few plausible-seeming candidates there are if we're looking at male "red wall" MPs as per the Telegraph. If the three likeliest to defect includes Kieran Mullin I have my doubts. If he defected (and was accepted) I think the entire local Labour Party would defect. To a monastery/ nunnery.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 28, 2022 12:46:45 GMT
If being a Labour constituency for two years with a majority of twenty doesn't make a constituency a 'red wall' seat, I don't know what does. Twenty "lifelong Labour voters" no doubt. Well yes , I guess there might be twenty of those in Kensington.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 28, 2022 13:09:50 GMT
We need some rules. A single seat can't form a wall. It must be one of a series of seats. They must be in a row, not a cluster. It must also be a boundary between something and something else And if there are Walls there must be ice cream.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,834
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2022 13:22:28 GMT
And sausages.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 28, 2022 13:28:13 GMT
the ball has been placed on the line, so....
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 28, 2022 15:15:01 GMT
Someone's been through the possibilities based on the Telegraph story: Of course it's possible that someone planning to defect would try to avoid giving it away and stay apparently loyal, but this does show how few plausible-seeming candidates there are if we're looking at male "red wall" MPs as per the Telegraph. Anyone describing High Peak as “Red Wall” should both visit it (a pleasure, not a punishment) and examine its electoral history. Plus Largan has a column in the Buxton Advertiser where he talks about his actions as a Tory MP every week, he's not exactly quiet about being solidly Conservative.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 28, 2022 15:19:40 GMT
Struggling to think of male Red Wall Conservative MPs who are not uber Brexiteers, culture warriors nor big public supporters of Johnson in very tight seats. It's not an especially big field to choose from. I wonder about the Blyth Valley and Burnley MPs as they are a bit less vocal than some of their contemporaries but this is pure speculation on my part. Higginbotham in Burnley is a long time Tory from Haslingden in Rossendale, so doubt he'd go. Crewe and Nantwich seems most likely, although there may be a huge argument with the local CLP if I read Gwyn's comment correctly.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2022 19:48:08 GMT
Struggling to think of male Red Wall Conservative MPs who are not uber Brexiteers, culture warriors nor big public supporters of Johnson in very tight seats. It's not an especially big field to choose from. I wonder about the Blyth Valley and Burnley MPs as they are a bit less vocal than some of their contemporaries but this is pure speculation on my part. Higginbotham in Burnley is a long time Tory from Haslingden in Rossendale, so doubt he'd go. Crewe and Nantwich seems most likely, although there may be a huge argument with the local CLP if I read Gwyn's comment correctly. The impression I get, and I accept I'm by no means as connected as I once was, is that while the local Labour activists disliked Timpson through a sense of obligation they detest Mullin viscerally. But perhaps I'm wrong. I often am.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 28, 2022 20:26:44 GMT
Struggling to think of male Red Wall Conservative MPs who are not uber Brexiteers, culture warriors nor big public supporters of Johnson in very tight seats. It's not an especially big field to choose from. I wonder about the Blyth Valley and Burnley MPs as they are a bit less vocal than some of their contemporaries but this is pure speculation on my part. Higginbotham in Burnley is a long time Tory from Haslingden in Rossendale, so doubt he'd go. Crewe and Nantwich seems most likely, although there may be a huge argument with the local CLP if I read Gwyn's comment correctly. Wakeford was a long time Tory from Pendle. There probably isn't going to be a defector, but I don't think these kinds of exercises are productive for working this out.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 14:20:59 GMT
Higginbotham in Burnley is a long time Tory from Haslingden in Rossendale, so doubt he'd go. Crewe and Nantwich seems most likely, although there may be a huge argument with the local CLP if I read Gwyn's comment correctly. The impression I get, and I accept I'm by no means as connected as I once was, is that while the local Labour activists disliked Timpson through a sense of obligation they detest Mullin viscerally. But perhaps I'm wrong. I often am. That makes sense to me, the Timpson family in general get a lot of respect for their business ethics and professionalism - a lot of the newer intake are not so courteous to mask their instinctive dislike of Labour and everything associated with it.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 14:29:19 GMT
Higginbotham in Burnley is a long time Tory from Haslingden in Rossendale, so doubt he'd go. Crewe and Nantwich seems most likely, although there may be a huge argument with the local CLP if I read Gwyn's comment correctly. Wakeford was a long time Tory from Pendle. There probably isn't going to be a defector, but I don't think these kinds of exercises are productive for working this out. Pendle is an area where there is a lot of cross party working on the council and in communities though, Rossendale if you know the area is not at all - seen some quite vicious splits and personality issues in the local party branches in the papers. I agree with your second statement in general, defectors will likely have been scared off by the numerous news reports - however, I think it is possible to narrow it down to who it could have been based on previous behaviour. Largan would look like an obvious candidate if you didn't analyse his profile and seat.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 30, 2022 4:31:17 GMT
The impression I get, and I accept I'm by no means as connected as I once was, is that while the local Labour activists disliked Timpson through a sense of obligation they detest Mullin viscerally. But perhaps I'm wrong. I often am. That makes sense to me, the Timpson family in general get a lot of respect for their business ethics and professionalism - a lot of the newer intake are not so courteous to mask their instinctive dislike of Labour and everything associated with it. I'm not sure it is instinctive with the newer intake. People mask an instinctive dislike of something because it feels unreasoned, raw, not evidenced, perhaps it falls foul of some alleged standard of belief or behaviour. When you think it is reasoned, evidenced and don't care about someone else's made up standards then you say what you think because it stops being instinctive.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 30, 2022 12:49:45 GMT
That makes sense to me, the Timpson family in general get a lot of respect for their business ethics and professionalism - a lot of the newer intake are not so courteous to mask their instinctive dislike of Labour and everything associated with it. I'm not sure it is instinctive with the newer intake. People mask an instinctive dislike of something because it feels unreasoned, raw, not evidenced, perhaps it falls foul of some alleged standard of belief or behaviour. When you think it is reasoned, evidenced and don't care about someone else's made up standards then you say what you think because it stops being instinctive. Well, it's an raw, unevidenced dislike of many of the new 2019 intake Tory MPs (e.g. prime example in Jonathan Gullis) that many on the left have - I dislike his Conservative values as I do all Conservative MPs, but he has a particular style which I find very uncouth and he looks inbred. Both assertions I realise are unscientific and somewhat ridiculous, but it's an instinctive method of reasoning that led me to that conclusion.
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Post by batman on Jun 30, 2022 17:10:42 GMT
I'm not sure it is instinctive with the newer intake. People mask an instinctive dislike of something because it feels unreasoned, raw, not evidenced, perhaps it falls foul of some alleged standard of belief or behaviour. When you think it is reasoned, evidenced and don't care about someone else's made up standards then you say what you think because it stops being instinctive. Well, it's an raw, unevidenced dislike of many of the new intake that many 2019 intake Tory MPs (e.g. prime example in Jonathan Gullis) that many on the left have - I dislike his Conservative values as I do all Conservative MPs, but he has a particular style which I find very uncouth and he looks inbred. Both assertions I realise are unscientific and somewhat ridiculous, but it's an instinctive method of reasoning that led me to that conclusion. Scott Benton fairly comfortably outdoes Gullis for uncouthness
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