The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 28, 2012 11:04:52 GMT
Field started his betrayal early though, being one of those left-wingers (Kinnock most prominent amongst them, of course) who refused to back Benn's deputy leadership bid in 1981. By the following parliament, he was backing Lib/Lab electoral pacts and other sorts of funny stuff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 6:54:00 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ?
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 30, 2012 7:49:33 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? I think if We'd won Rotherham, Jane would not long have been alone... |
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baloo
Conservative
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Post by baloo on Nov 30, 2012 8:39:17 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? I don't think so. UKIP's result in Rotherham was undeniably excellent, however there were unusual circumstances. - I suspect a large part of the increase in the UKIP vote was people who normally vote for us switching to UKIP because of the story about the UKIP couple losing the children they were fostering
- The fact that we're in the middle of a parliament with the Conservatives in power probably helped this along.
- By elections in Middlesborough and Rotherham are unlikely to have been seen as a priority by CCHQ, whereas they probably were for UKIP.
UKIP may also have been helped by the reason behind the by election enhancing the general anti politician feeling that they are trying to work on. I'm not saying that this wasn't a great result for UKIP, it obviously was, all I'm saying is that there were specific circumstances here that made it something of a perfect storm for UKIP. At this stage I still think that defection to UKIP would mean an MP losing their seat. None of the likely defectors strike me as being that brave/principled. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 8:45:19 GMT
now if an MP suspects they will lose their seat in 2015 ?
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baloo
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Post by baloo on Nov 30, 2012 8:51:08 GMT
now if an MP suspects they will lose their seat in 2015 ? I agree that in those circumstances a defection would be more likely, either as a desperation move or since they feel they have nothing to lose. I still think UKIP would need to be able to offer them something though. They can't offer them a safe seat at Westminster and since 2014 looks like being a high water mark for them in Euro election results they're unlikely to be able to offer a safe Euro seat in 2019 (?) either. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 30, 2012 16:09:08 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? Nope , it shows that UKIP cannot get near to winning even in the most favourable circumstances . |
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Post by innocentabroad on Nov 30, 2012 16:17:03 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? Nope , it shows that UKIP cannot get near to winning even in the most favourable circumstances . Yet. |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 30, 2012 16:34:48 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? Nope , it shows that UKIP cannot get near to winning even in the most favourable circumstances . It sure as Hell showed how fkd you lot are as well... 8th place was it in Rotherham? Plus other lost deposits too? |
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Post by anthony on Nov 30, 2012 16:43:18 GMT
It sure as Hell showed how fkd you lot are as well... 8th place was it in Rotherham? Plus other lost deposits too? Testy! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2012 17:19:25 GMT
Maybe, but factually accurate  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 17:48:19 GMT
Nope , it shows that UKIP cannot get near to winning even in the most favourable circumstances . It sure as Hell showed how fkd you lot are as well... 8th place was it in Rotherham? Plus other lost deposits too? we have spoken about this before and Boston was one place mentioned UKIP could win in a by election but not sure that you can. to be taken serious you have to win far more council and Westminister elections and you just can using a rump of disaffected tories and those who want a protest vote. Before you mention Respect that is just one candidate as we have seen who could possibly do this, you have no one like Galloway who can appeal to a certain demographic in certain seats. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 17:52:24 GMT
with the results last night will this be a catalyst for some to finally jump to Ukip ? Nope , it shows that UKIP cannot get near to winning even in the most favourable circumstances . It doesn't because these were not the most favourable of circumstances. How can they be when the seat was being defended by the main opposition party and has been a stronghold for that party for generations? Labour were always going to be able to rely on a core vote of not much less than 50%. Within those constraints the variuous circumstances may indeed have been very favourable to UKIP, but their potential was still limited by those constraints. Now if a by-election were to occur in a government held seat - say a Bognor Regis & Littlehampton or a Torbay, then the potential for a gain would be far greater |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 30, 2012 18:00:39 GMT
Would be half tempted to suggest that you might go into hypothetical by-elections in those two seats as *favourites*, things being as they are...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 30, 2012 20:21:24 GMT
Would be half tempted to suggest that you might go into hypothetical by-elections in those two seats as *favourites*, things being as they are... BR & L, hardly. More urban, non suburban West Sussex isn't exactly their best territory (plus it has a latent potential Labour vote). Torbay? Though it's South West, you're up against hard dug in Lib Dem and Tory machines, both sucessful there in multiple elections over the last few years. The perfect storm is indeed somewhere like Boston (where apart from the Tories the campaigning strength of the other two main parties is poor). UKIP's fundemental problem is it's organisation, which is almost universally (and especially in national management) terrible (with some very noticeable local exceptions). |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 30, 2012 22:05:08 GMT
A by election in a Rural Tory seat in the shires with Labour a distant third would be fascinating.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 1, 2012 0:18:51 GMT
Hopefully in the constituency formerly known as Leominster.
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Rural Radical
Labour
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Post by Rural Radical on Dec 1, 2012 0:23:37 GMT
Hopefully in the constituency formerly known as Leominster. Has Bungalow Bill upset you? ;D |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 1, 2012 9:07:08 GMT
Hopefully in the constituency formerly known as Leominster. That has vast entertainment possibilities. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 1, 2012 12:56:29 GMT
Hopefully in the constituency formerly known as Leominster. This is one of the few seats where we already have a PPC in place. Whether the NEC would allow him to stand in a by election is another matter completely as some might argue that he would not be entirely suited to such a high profile election. |
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