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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 10:18:17 GMT
The disillusion is all the things that were promised but not delivered. We were promised to be better off. We were promised a better trade deal, we were promised less red tape. At some point everyone was told that which they wanted to hear. Instead, we're left poorer. The worse trade deal has driven prices up due to tarrifs. The increased red tape has left fresh food in shops with a shorter (remaining) shelf life. The xenophobes are left without massive reductions in "foreigners". The people who wanted more houses for their children have found that no more houses have magically been built. The list is as long as the fantasies that were promised. In short people have eaten their cake, looked down at their plate to find they no longer have it. They're disappointed because they were promised they would have. A bit premature, but broadly that's what I think will happen. The Brexit campaign mobilised a fair number of people pretty heavily disengaged from politics. They will become more disillusioned as Brexit fails to deliver what they imagined it might. I recall talking separately to two people doing some work on my home when I lived in Derbyshire. It was startling to hear what they expected to happen. I suppose it shouldn't have surprised me bearing in mind the pretty relentless and indiscriminate blaming of the EU by both politicians and the media. It was a really convenient excuse for poor performance (and it's retained some of that purpose - the "bullied Brits" narrative post Brexit seems to have dulled slightly). Quite who this kind of supporter blames, and what they do is open. I'd rather suspect, sadly, that they'll return to non-voting. The left behind voter narrative is very overdone. Sevenoaks voted leave. Liverpool and Glasgow voted remain.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 24, 2022 10:29:15 GMT
What makes you think the USA wants us in any block. They seem decidedly luke-warm on the concept. Also they have the muscle to demand anything we agree is on their terms (see the recent renegotiation they did with Canada and Mexico). It would clearly involve essentially accepting their terms. Isn't the whole point of Brexit not to accept other jurisdiction terms? Wouldn't this mean that a foreign power making laws that the UK would have to accept without any say?
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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 10:34:37 GMT
It would clearly involve essentially accepting their terms. Isn't the whole point of Brexit not to accept other jurisdiction terms? Wouldn't this mean that a foreign power making laws that the UK would have to accept without any say? For some voters perhaps.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 24, 2022 11:03:34 GMT
A bit premature, but broadly that's what I think will happen. The Brexit campaign mobilised a fair number of people pretty heavily disengaged from politics. They will become more disillusioned as Brexit fails to deliver what they imagined it might. I recall talking separately to two people doing some work on my home when I lived in Derbyshire. It was startling to hear what they expected to happen. I suppose it shouldn't have surprised me bearing in mind the pretty relentless and indiscriminate blaming of the EU by both politicians and the media. It was a really convenient excuse for poor performance (and it's retained some of that purpose - the "bullied Brits" narrative post Brexit seems to have dulled slightly). Quite who this kind of supporter blames, and what they do is open. I'd rather suspect, sadly, that they'll return to non-voting. The left behind voter narrative is very overdone. Sevenoaks voted leave. Liverpool and Glasgow voted remain. It's a bit more complicated than that. I wasn't claiming that the entire Brexit support stemmed from a "left behind" community. But few would argue that those weren't an important part of the coalition. But anyway my point wasn't quite that. I said disengaged from politics. That can apply to those who are fairly comfortable but feel that the political process doesn't deliver what they want and that they aren't represented. The big illusion was that, in the modern world, we could be an entirely independent state, setting our own rules as we pleased. It's becoming obvious (as it was to many before the vote) that that really is an illusion. We must work with other states to achieve our objectives. We must accept rules at least part-authored by others. Sovereignty is a relative concept of quite limited meaning in many circumstances.
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 11:18:28 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 11:18:28 GMT
The left behind voter narrative is very overdone. Sevenoaks voted leave. Liverpool and Glasgow voted remain. It's a bit more complicated than that. I wasn't claiming that the entire Brexit support stemmed from a "left behind" community. But few would argue that those weren't an important part of the coalition. But anyway my point wasn't quite that. I said disengaged from politics. That can apply to those who are fairly comfortable but feel that the political process doesn't deliver what they want and that they aren't represented. The big illusion was that, in the modern world, we could be an entirely independent state, setting our own rules as we pleased. It's becoming obvious (as it was to many before the vote) that that really is an illusion. We must work with other states to achieve our objectives. We must accept rules at least part-authored by others. Sovereignty is a relative concept of quite limited meaning in many circumstances. I basically accept this. For me it's about a rejection of 1) The guiding values and principles of the EU project, and 2) (To a lesser extent, and largely because of reason 1) The selection of European countries as a partner of choice.
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 24, 2022 11:23:12 GMT
Theres still a lot to be thankful for: No CAP An Immigration system that is blind to origin No longer bring a shareholder in the insanity that is the ECB The chance to diverge on EU rules. The ability to join a non-declining block. With vast self inflicted damages From the hysterical nonsense that was covid to the current tax and spend we aren't going to well, in or out. Developed EU countries underperform developed non-EU countries... This is funny for it's utter lack of self awareness. CAP and ECB are things that the average voter knows nothing about. They were not the reason people voted for Brexit and are not the reasons Brexiters are happy or not. The Xenophobes wanted no immigration. We're likely to get more, of which less will be White European and more will be Asian or African. Not what many Brexit voters wanted. Johnson's insistance on divergence is the root of our inflation. Divergence means tarrifs. Tarrifs are what has driven prices up. Not what anyone really wants. Declining Block? Have you seen the UK's current decline? We're doing worse than every G20 country other than Russia. Brexit has driven our decline, not saved us from it.
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 24, 2022 11:32:24 GMT
Quite who this kind of supporter blames, and what they do is open. I've wondered this myself. There are only two real alternatives, plus an imaginary one. Either a good Brexit was posible, but May and Johnson failed spectacularly, or it wasn't ever possible. Either they lied or they made stuff up on the hoof. The unicorn fantasy Brexit. The imaginary outcome is that Brexit was possible and Johnson tried really hard, but he was out foxed by remainer Lib Dems and Greens who stole it from him. The Trumpian blaming of others is only for hardcore Brexit Believers I suspect.
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 12:51:05 GMT
Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 12:51:05 GMT
Theres still a lot to be thankful for: No CAP An Immigration system that is blind to origin No longer bring a shareholder in the insanity that is the ECB The chance to diverge on EU rules. The ability to join a non-declining block. With vast self inflicted damages From the hysterical nonsense that was covid to the current tax and spend we aren't going to well, in or out. Developed EU countries underperform developed non-EU countries... This is funny for it's utter lack of self awareness. CAP and ECB are things that the average voter knows nothing about. They were not the reason people voted for Brexit and are not the reasons Brexiters are happy or not. The Xenophobes wanted no immigration. We're likely to get more, of which less will be White European and more will be Asian or African. Not what many Brexit voters wanted. Johnson's insistance on divergence is the root of our inflation. Divergence means tarrifs. Tarrifs are what has driven prices up. Not what anyone really wants. Declining Block? Have you seen the UK's current decline? We're doing worse than every G20 country other than Russia. Brexit has driven our decline, not saved us from it.Well yes and no. Since Q2 2016, comparing to France, Germany, Italy and Spain we were, as of Q4 2021 marginally bottom in terms of economic growth. This is true. But it is also cherry-picking .... we were top in Q1 2019, bottom in Q4 2019, top again in Q4 2020. It's very volatile, and significantly driven by currency movements in the short term. The pound has been strengthening a lot in recent weeks, so watch this space. I think it's important to take a step back and look at the European project at large. Has it helped European people? Has it led to European outperformance (at least compared to other developed countries)? Is protectionism whether overt or through endless regulation worked? What about the Euro - what is happening to Target 2 debt? What will happen when Italy and Spain inevitably don't get the money to other countries? Do we actually value freedom of movement (outgoing)? If so, why? Is incoming freedom of movement good for us (clearly not, choice is better than no choice)? Are we happy with the model of a de facto dictatorship in the form of the commission, and a toothless parliament? The EU institutions - CAP and the ECB. Are we happy with them? Democracy starts with a demos. Is there a demos in Europe? For many reasons, I utterly reject the EU. Now, unlike remain, brexit is not a singularity, but could take many forms. One can criticize the current policy and results stemming from said policy, but that does not, and cannot lead to a rejection of brexit per se. That can only be done by arguing that the EU is an inherently good institution that has helped and empowered its citizens. How can one explain the massive outperformance of the United States and Europe. Why has the US left Europe behind in terms of living stqandards? Why does Europe not have the technology companies that the US or China have? Why is the only answer threatening such companies with endless reams of regulation? Any supranational body will involve compromise. But I see very little I like in the European Union. Its results are objectively poor. I am not prepared to walk back into its model after all of 2 years, most of which were spent in a pandemic. I can quite happily reject the type of lexit we are getting at the minute. I am not bound to defend the current model. I don't like lexit, and I don't like the EU. I certainly expect very poor results following the Hunt budget. I don't accept this is an inevitable result of leaving the EU. I also have a different idea about timescales. I can happily accept that we will be worse off on a 1, 5, 10 year time-scale. I am more interested in long term policy, on the 20 or 50 year timescale. But this is not in-line with European thought, which is about protectionism and today. Not about the long term. This isn't theoretical for me. I am saving up for my kids to go to university in the US, or Singapore, or wherever they want to go. I will strongly recommend they leave this continent. I hope Switzerland's miracle lasts, but they are running up a down escalator in many ways.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 24, 2022 13:32:32 GMT
It's a bit more complicated than that. I wasn't claiming that the entire Brexit support stemmed from a "left behind" community. But few would argue that those weren't an important part of the coalition. But anyway my point wasn't quite that. I said disengaged from politics. That can apply to those who are fairly comfortable but feel that the political process doesn't deliver what they want and that they aren't represented. The big illusion was that, in the modern world, we could be an entirely independent state, setting our own rules as we pleased. It's becoming obvious (as it was to many before the vote) that that really is an illusion. We must work with other states to achieve our objectives. We must accept rules at least part-authored by others. Sovereignty is a relative concept of quite limited meaning in many circumstances. I basically accept this. For me it's about a rejection of 1) The guiding values and principles of the EU project, and 2) (To a lesser extent, and largely because of reason 1) The selection of European countries as a partner of choice. I've had this out with others on here. Did you believe that the "ever closer union" superstate stuff continued to have meaning after the EEC expanded? As the institution grew, particularly into the Iberian Peninsula and then to the East, the concept became more and more remote. That didn't stop it being talked about regularly but it simply wasn't credible as practical statecraft. With countries like Poland and Hungary as members under current governments. And even the Euro has become something that states can opt out of permanently if they choose. As to the second point clearly geography plays a part. We can set our stall out to be part of a Pacific trading entity (incidentally with some of the rules and governance that the EU has once it gets going). And clearly we should trade there. But for many of our businesses, particularly in perishables or items where transport is a key competitive cost, a nearby customer is surely preferable.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,975
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 14:03:50 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 24, 2022 14:03:50 GMT
But for ordinary people what is a ‘proper Brexit’? The disillusion is all the things that were promised but not delivered. We were promised to be better off. We were promised a better trade deal, we were promised less red tape. At some point everyone was told that which they wanted to hear. Instead, we're left poorer. The worse trade deal has driven prices up due to tarrifs. The increased red tape has left fresh food in shops with a shorter (remaining) shelf life. The xenophobes are left without massive reductions in "foreigners". The people who wanted more houses for their children have found that no more houses have magically been built. The list is as long as the fantasies that were promised. In short people have eaten their cake, looked down at their plate to find they no longer have it. They're disappointed because they were promised they would have. Same as Ireland in 1925. Irexit was a mistake! Cancel Leave! Rejoin the Union!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2022 14:05:55 GMT
Theres still a lot to be thankful for: No CAP An Immigration system that is blind to origin No longer bring a shareholder in the insanity that is the ECB The chance to diverge on EU rules. The ability to join a non-declining block. With vast self inflicted damages From the hysterical nonsense that was covid to the current tax and spend we aren't going to well, in or out. Developed EU countries underperform developed non-EU countries... I'm sorry, but most of that is illusory or deluded. 1. We still have a mass of agricultural subsidies and rules, just slightly different ones. On the whole the agricultural sector is pretty pissed off with Brexit while consumers haven't exactly seen a flood of either cheap imported food, reduced cost of subsidy feeding into lower taxes, nor (yet) any big environmental gains. I won't say it's been disastrous but it's hardly a significant gain for the country. 2. A simple market-based immigration system (here's our nearest labour market, anyone in it can come into the UK labour market if there is a job for them) has been replaced by a lot of bureaucracy. It's doubtless fairer for the nationals of countries outside the EU, but why should anyone in the UK care about that? Meanwhile we no longer are part of the Dublin System on refugees (a massively favourable deal for the UK, which we basically brokered) making it far harder to deport asylum seekers to European countries which they have previously passed through. I'm not too fussed about that, but apparently people who voted for Brexit are. 3. No comment ("Pure ignorance, madam") 4. Chance to diverge on EU rules = chance to massively duplicate regulation for any UK producer who wants to export to our largest market. Probably not going to happen but will be a brake on growth if it does. 5. The idea that the EU is in some sort of terminal decline is bonkers. It is outperforming us economically and is still in process of expansion. As for joining the USA/Canada, no-one wants it, it's not a positive option in any form. And when I say "no-one," I'm including the USA due to the N Ireland issue. At some point the Conservatives are going to wake up to the realisation that getting on for 60% of the electorate think it was an error, 20-30% or so have lost the will to think about it, and most of the balance think it was a good idea badly handled. The actual policy response to all this is going to be hard because none of the options look great but a vote-winner it ain't.
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 14:13:01 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2022 14:13:01 GMT
The disillusion is all the things that were promised but not delivered. We were promised to be better off. We were promised a better trade deal, we were promised less red tape. At some point everyone was told that which they wanted to hear. Instead, we're left poorer. The worse trade deal has driven prices up due to tarrifs. The increased red tape has left fresh food in shops with a shorter (remaining) shelf life. The xenophobes are left without massive reductions in "foreigners". The people who wanted more houses for their children have found that no more houses have magically been built. The list is as long as the fantasies that were promised. In short people have eaten their cake, looked down at their plate to find they no longer have it. They're disappointed because they were promised they would have. Same as Ireland in 1925. Irexit was a mistake! Cancel Leave! Rejoin the Union! Not remotely like Ireland in 1925, as anyone who knows the first thing about Ireland would know. Find me a speech by De Valera saying that he would cut bureaucracy, repatriate vast sums of Irish taxpayers money going to subsidise the feckless British, and stop the flood of British immigrants taking up all the council using in Cork and driving down the wages of agricultural workers in Kerry. Then find me examples of the notorious EU death squads operating in a British city (which is what De Valera did promise to end, and delivered on.)
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 14:16:18 GMT
Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 14:16:18 GMT
Theres still a lot to be thankful for: No CAP An Immigration system that is blind to origin No longer bring a shareholder in the insanity that is the ECB The chance to diverge on EU rules. The ability to join a non-declining block. With vast self inflicted damages From the hysterical nonsense that was covid to the current tax and spend we aren't going to well, in or out. Developed EU countries underperform developed non-EU countries... I'm sorry, but most of that is illusory or deluded. 1. We still have a mass of agricultural subsidies and rules, just slightly different ones. On the whole the agricultural sector is pretty pissed off with Brexit while consumers haven't exactly seen a flood of either cheap imported food, reduced cost of subsidy feeding into lower taxes, nor (yet) any big environmental gains. I won't say it's been disastrous but it's hardly a significant gain for the country. 2. A simple market-based immigration system (here's our nearest labour market, anyone in it can come into the UK labour market if there is a job for them) has been replaced by a lot of bureaucracy. It's doubtless fairer for the nationals of countries outside the EU, but why should anyone in the UK care about that? Meanwhile we no longer are part of the Dublin System on refugees (a massively favourable deal for the UK, which we basically brokered) making it far harder to deport asylum seekers to European countries which they have previously passed through. I'm not too fussed about that, but apparently people who voted for Brexit are. 3. No comment ("Pure ignorance, madam") 4. Chance to diverge on EU rules = chance to massively duplicate regulation for any UK producer who wants to export to our largest market. Probably not going to happen but will be a brake on growth if it does. 5. The idea that the EU is in some sort of terminal decline is bonkers. It is outperforming us economically and is still in process of expansion. As for joining the USA/Canada, no-one wants it, it's not a positive option in any form. And when I say "no-one," I'm including the USA due to the N Ireland issue. At some point the Conservatives are going to wake up to the realisation that getting on for 60% of the electorate think it was an error, 20-30% or so have lost the will to think about it, and most of the balance think it was a good idea badly handled. The actual policy response to all this is going to be hard because none of the options look great but a vote-winner it ain't. 1. I didn't claim to be defending them, nor is it incumbent on me to do so. 2. How can we not care about the fairness of our immigration system? If EU nationals are favoured over non-EU ones, we will end up with worse EU employees getting the job over better non-EU ones. On refugees, we could simply say we aren't going to take any over X number. De facto Japan doesn't take any refugees. 5. Outperforming us (and that is debatable, at least for western Europe) does not mean it is not in decline. It objectively, is (decreasing share of world GDP). Solve the NI issue by getting washing our hands of the place as much as we can. Certainly not going to shed any tears for the DUP and friends. The fact that "no-one wants it" is hardly an attack on the value of an option. We should at least push for it. Could anyone really say that long term, partnership with the US would be inferior to one with the EU? Nobody wants it in the UK, because nobody in the UK has vision. Nobody thinks in anything but the shortest term. The fact that everyone sites "our NHS" and "chlorinated chicken" tells its own story. Finally, an attack based on what the majority of the population think is an odd one. Are the majority always right? Well evidently not, as either they were wrong in 2016, or they are wrong now (or, arguably both). What I want - a much more capitalistic country, with a private healthcare system, contributory benefits, education that is rigorous, competitive and selective. Undercutting the fat bloated EU. Attracting talented immigrants, running at low tax levels. It isn't going to happen. I've accepted that and left, probably for good. We are going to choose between two bad options. EU membership (well, more realistically EEA), or some lexit.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2022 14:32:06 GMT
I'm sorry, but most of that is illusory or deluded. 1. We still have a mass of agricultural subsidies and rules, just slightly different ones. On the whole the agricultural sector is pretty pissed off with Brexit while consumers haven't exactly seen a flood of either cheap imported food, reduced cost of subsidy feeding into lower taxes, nor (yet) any big environmental gains. I won't say it's been disastrous but it's hardly a significant gain for the country. 2. A simple market-based immigration system (here's our nearest labour market, anyone in it can come into the UK labour market if there is a job for them) has been replaced by a lot of bureaucracy. It's doubtless fairer for the nationals of countries outside the EU, but why should anyone in the UK care about that? Meanwhile we no longer are part of the Dublin System on refugees (a massively favourable deal for the UK, which we basically brokered) making it far harder to deport asylum seekers to European countries which they have previously passed through. I'm not too fussed about that, but apparently people who voted for Brexit are. 3. No comment ("Pure ignorance, madam") 4. Chance to diverge on EU rules = chance to massively duplicate regulation for any UK producer who wants to export to our largest market. Probably not going to happen but will be a brake on growth if it does. 5. The idea that the EU is in some sort of terminal decline is bonkers. It is outperforming us economically and is still in process of expansion. As for joining the USA/Canada, no-one wants it, it's not a positive option in any form. And when I say "no-one," I'm including the USA due to the N Ireland issue. At some point the Conservatives are going to wake up to the realisation that getting on for 60% of the electorate think it was an error, 20-30% or so have lost the will to think about it, and most of the balance think it was a good idea badly handled. The actual policy response to all this is going to be hard because none of the options look great but a vote-winner it ain't. 1. I didn't claim to be defending them, nor is it incumbent on me to do so. 2. How can we not care about the fairness of our immigration system? If EU nationals are favoured over non-EU ones, we will end up with worse EU employees getting the job over better non-EU ones. On refugees, we could simply say we aren't going to take any over X number. De facto Japan doesn't take any refugees. 5. Outperforming us (and that is debatable, at least for western Europe) does not mean it is not in decline. It objectively, is (decreasing share of world GDP). Solve the NI issue by getting washing our hands of the place as much as we can. Certainly not going to shed any tears for the DUP and friends. The fact that "no-one wants it" is hardly an attack on the value of an option. We should at least push for it. Could anyone really say that long term, partnership with the US would be inferior to one with the EU? Nobody wants it in the UK, because nobody in the UK has vision. Nobody thinks in anything but the shortest term. The fact that everyone sites "our NHS" and "chlorinated chicken" tells its own story. Finally, an attack based on what the majority of the population think is an odd one. Are the majority always right? Well evidently not, as either they were wrong in 2016, or they are wrong now (or, arguably both).
What I want - a much more capitalistic country, with a private healthcare system, contributory benefits, education that is rigorous, competitive and selective. Undercutting the fat bloated EU. It isn't going to happen. I've accepted that. We are going to choose between two bad options. EU membership (well, more realistically EEA), or some lexit. This is a thread on opinion polling, not on Brexit (on which there is a whole sub-board). The point here is that polling shows Brexit is unpopular, getting more so. What the majority thinks is the whole point. Hence (e.g.) the thing about immigration - no-one in the UK cares if it is fair to other countries. And it has to be your role to defend changes to agricultural policy if you are suggesting that Brexit is "something to be thankful for" as an argument that may sway the polling. The fact that you are left with the options of EU/EEA membership or Lexit, and to shrug off the loss of Northern Ireland (which was not on the cards pre-Brexit) shows just how toxic Brexit is as a policy issue for the parties and politicians who promoted it. Which is the point at issue and part of the context for these Yougov figures (and a significant change from, say, 12 months ago, when Brexit was still a vote winner with a large part of the electorate.)
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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2022 15:46:57 GMT
1. I didn't claim to be defending them, nor is it incumbent on me to do so. 2. How can we not care about the fairness of our immigration system? If EU nationals are favoured over non-EU ones, we will end up with worse EU employees getting the job over better non-EU ones. On refugees, we could simply say we aren't going to take any over X number. De facto Japan doesn't take any refugees. 5. Outperforming us (and that is debatable, at least for western Europe) does not mean it is not in decline. It objectively, is (decreasing share of world GDP). Solve the NI issue by getting washing our hands of the place as much as we can. Certainly not going to shed any tears for the DUP and friends. The fact that "no-one wants it" is hardly an attack on the value of an option. We should at least push for it. Could anyone really say that long term, partnership with the US would be inferior to one with the EU? Nobody wants it in the UK, because nobody in the UK has vision. Nobody thinks in anything but the shortest term. The fact that everyone sites "our NHS" and "chlorinated chicken" tells its own story. Finally, an attack based on what the majority of the population think is an odd one. Are the majority always right? Well evidently not, as either they were wrong in 2016, or they are wrong now (or, arguably both).
What I want - a much more capitalistic country, with a private healthcare system, contributory benefits, education that is rigorous, competitive and selective. Undercutting the fat bloated EU. It isn't going to happen. I've accepted that. We are going to choose between two bad options. EU membership (well, more realistically EEA), or some lexit. This is a thread on opinion polling, not on Brexit (on which there is a whole sub-board). The point here is that polling shows Brexit is unpopular, getting more so. What the majority thinks is the whole point. Hence (e.g.) the thing about immigration - no-one in the UK cares if it is fair to other countries. And it has to be your role to defend changes to agricultural policy if you are suggesting that Brexit is "something to be thankful for" as an argument that may sway the polling. The fact that you are left with the options of EU/EEA membership or Lexit, and to shrug off the loss of Northern Ireland (which was not on the cards pre-Brexit) shows just how toxic Brexit is as a policy issue for the parties and politicians who promoted it. Which is the point at issue and part of the context for these Yougov figures (and a significant change from, say, 12 months ago, when Brexit was still a vote winner with a large part of the electorate.) Not sure I agree about that. What is damaging for the government is a not unjustified feeling amongst almost everyone that the government have been incompetent, have no direction, and lack leadership. If there really was a high saliency massive move to remain, there would be a big move to the liberal democrats. That hasn't happened. Basically, people have moved on. Its not driving VI. Except for a few fanatics on both sides. The Conservatives will die a miserable death, but brexit won't be what killed them.
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Post by Benevolent Dictator / Tsar on Nov 24, 2022 16:40:57 GMT
People need to wake up, a lot of the Pro-Brexit vote wasn't just an anti-EU it was an anti-Westminster vote. The fact that Brexit has been ballsed up, re-enforces the feeling that the EU and Westminster are the same, a load of power, money hungry people who ignore ordinary folk. Brexit was an anti-establishment vote. Failure of Brexit, hardships of Brexit are going to be blamed on EU and Westminster by many; as Westminster is seen as, they don't care about whats best for real people, and never will. Outcome, people stopping voting, people feeling more alienated, society splintering more into the in crowd and the rest. Another referendum, on rejoining the EU might pass but only because a high percentage now perceive voting as pointless as Westminster will Westminster no matter what, just like Brussels.
Liberal Democrats and Labour are only up in the polls due to Tory ineptness, it is not an endorsement of them, their policies or the EU.
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carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 49,252
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 24, 2022 18:54:14 GMT
Loathe as I am to say it, immigration. People in areas like mine didn’t vote Leave because of Customs Union or trade, they voted because they believe(d) their kids can’t get a house, their grandkids can’t get into their first choice school, they’re having to wait an inordinate amount of time to get a hip replacement because all these “bloody foreigners” get free houses, and free cars, and free healthcare etc, etc. And that, in their minds didn’t just apply to EU immigration, of which there was relatively little, but South Asian immigration - my now retired GP, originally from Goa, was told on three occasions the Friday after the vote that he’d be going “home” soon. I fear with the talk of the CBI and others calling for more economic migration, and a possible Swiss type relationship with the EU, that’s stirring those sentiments up again and whatever wagon Farage attaches himself to will benefit to a degree. I agree and there’s still a lot of unhappiness about immigration for many people, but I wouldn’t really connect it to Brexit anymore. How much we limit EU migration is a consequence of Brexit but I’m not sure the exact level will be viewed as crucial in whether it is or is not ‘proper Brexit’, and given we’ve ended freedom of movement we’ve gotten rid of the most controversial parts anyways (the idea anybody can enter our country, get welfare, take in demand jobs etc). Much more important is illegal immigration (particularly the Channel crossings) as well as long-standing views of the sorts of immigrants we should be accepting. These issues can be a significant cleavage, but the immigration debate existed before we entered the EU and it’s going to keep existing to some degree afterwards. FWIW I think we mostly agree, i just wouldn’t associate immigration policy with Brexit anymore given we’ve left the EU and most of the immigration issues relate to non-EU migrants. It really is intimately and completely bound up with the EU and Free Movement. It was the driving force in the Brexit vote.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,217
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YouGov
Nov 24, 2022 20:45:02 GMT
Post by polupolu on Nov 24, 2022 20:45:02 GMT
That, plus all the stories (which turned out to be untrue) like having to have straight bananas or whatnot.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2022 22:37:59 GMT
This is a thread on opinion polling, not on Brexit (on which there is a whole sub-board). The point here is that polling shows Brexit is unpopular, getting more so. What the majority thinks is the whole point. Hence (e.g.) the thing about immigration - no-one in the UK cares if it is fair to other countries. And it has to be your role to defend changes to agricultural policy if you are suggesting that Brexit is "something to be thankful for" as an argument that may sway the polling. The fact that you are left with the options of EU/EEA membership or Lexit, and to shrug off the loss of Northern Ireland (which was not on the cards pre-Brexit) shows just how toxic Brexit is as a policy issue for the parties and politicians who promoted it. Which is the point at issue and part of the context for these Yougov figures (and a significant change from, say, 12 months ago, when Brexit was still a vote winner with a large part of the electorate.) Not sure I agree about that. What is damaging for the government is a not unjustified feeling amongst almost everyone that the government have been incompetent, have no direction, and lack leadership. If there really was a high saliency massive move to remain, there would be a big move to the liberal democrats. That hasn't happened.Basically, people have moved on. Its not driving VI. Except for a few fanatics on both sides. The Conservatives will die a miserable death, but brexit won't be what killed them. The opinion polling on Brexit is quite clear. E.g.: link
But I don't think it follows that this inevitably would result in a move to the LDs, much as I'd like it. Firstly, not liking Brexit does not = Rejoin. There are massive practical problems, which means the Labour line of "we'll try and make it work" has some appeal. More importantly, the basic problem for us is winnability - thee's a reason for all those bar charts: the main barrier to getting a vote for us isn't winning the argument, it's persuading the electors there is any point and we won't just let in "the other lot" (whoever they are locally.) My feeling on Brexit and the polls is that the damn thing is an albatross around the neck of the Tories which they can't shake off, thus dislike of it leads to a vote against them. With Starmer, unlike Corbyn, looking a credible PM (and much as I like Davey, he's not an obvious alternative) that easily enough translates into a Labour surge. Not that this invalidates your claim that it is other factors that will do for the Tories or that the main drivers of VI are elsewhere, which I largely agree on. Brexit is a sort of context thing, adding to the sense of incompetence and lack of direction (since it ought to have led to a clear direction somewhere if there was any point to it.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2022 22:53:15 GMT
People need to wake up, a lot of the Pro-Brexit vote wasn't just an anti-EU it was an anti-Westminster vote. The fact that Brexit has been ballsed up, re-enforces the feeling that the EU and Westminster are the same, a load of power, money hungry people who ignore ordinary folk. Brexit was an anti-establishment vote. Failure of Brexit, hardships of Brexit are going to be blamed on EU and Westminster by many; as Westminster is seen as, they don't care about whats best for real people, and never will. Outcome, people stopping voting, people feeling more alienated, society splintering more into the in crowd and the rest. Another referendum, on rejoining the EU might pass but only because a high percentage now perceive voting as pointless as Westminster will Westminster no matter what, just like Brussels.
Liberal Democrats and Labour are only up in the polls due to Tory ineptness, it is not an endorsement of them, their policies or the EU.
Yes, certainly. Therein lies the problem - the absolute essence of Brexit as a practical policy is repatriation of powers from Brussels to Westminster. At which point anyone wanting to kick Westminster ought to have said "Doh!" Your last point is also correct (normal for most governments in trouble of course) but Brexit is an example of it. The views of 18-24 year olds who didn't get a vote in 2016 and are at the sharp end of the economic issues also needs to be considered and I don't think are on your radar much.
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