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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 11, 2022 19:13:09 GMT
The poll could show 99% of people want to rejoin and it wouldn't change the fact that given there won't be another referendum at least for the next two or three parliaments it's about as relevant as a poll in the Palestinian authority. The most popular polls shared are the ones that never happen I take your point, but it's not totally irrelevant if true (which it might not be). 1. It makes a Tory attack line of "You can't trust Labour (or Lib Dems) not to undo Brexit" feeble if a majority, including most people in the Lab and LD target pools, quite fancy the idea. Might also give Starmer a bit more room for manoeuvre on policy 2. It leaves the Tories wedded to and identified with a policy that people don't like. You don't have to want to go through the hell of another referendum to blame the govt for the status quo and to punish them in the polls; it's a bit like losing a war and then saying "Well, not much we can do about it now..."
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YouGov
Jul 11, 2022 19:51:05 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jul 11, 2022 19:51:05 GMT
I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro. With a weak economy like ours, probably true 😉 The reverse I suggest - the ECBs extreme dovishness would suit weaker economies better.
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YouGov
Jul 11, 2022 21:38:07 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 11, 2022 21:38:07 GMT
The poll could show 99% of people want to rejoin and it wouldn't change the fact that given there won't be another referendum at least for the next two or three parliaments it's about as relevant as a poll in the Palestinian authority. The most popular polls shared are the ones that never happen I take your point, but it's not totally irrelevant if true (which it might not be). 1. It makes a Tory attack line of "You can't trust Labour (or Lib Dems) not to undo Brexit" feeble if a majority, including most people in the Lab and LD target pools, quite fancy the idea. Might also give Starmer a bit more room for manoeuvre on policy 2. It leaves the Tories wedded to and identified with a policy that people don't like. You don't have to want to go through the hell of another referendum to blame the govt for the status quo and to punish them in the polls; it's a bit like losing a war and then saying "Well, not much we can do about it now..." it's true in the same way renationalising the railways, nationalising energy companies, rolling out free broadband is popular but as there won't be a government for many moon or ever that'd do all those things that manifesto exist only in polls
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Jul 11, 2022 21:40:07 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jul 11, 2022 21:40:07 GMT
I take your point, but it's not totally irrelevant if true (which it might not be). 1. It makes a Tory attack line of "You can't trust Labour (or Lib Dems) not to undo Brexit" feeble if a majority, including most people in the Lab and LD target pools, quite fancy the idea. Might also give Starmer a bit more room for manoeuvre on policy 2. It leaves the Tories wedded to and identified with a policy that people don't like. You don't have to want to go through the hell of another referendum to blame the govt for the status quo and to punish them in the polls; it's a bit like losing a war and then saying "Well, not much we can do about it now..." it's true in the same way renationalising the railways, nationalising energy companies, rolling out free broadband is popular but as there won't be a government for many moon or ever that'd do all those things that manifesto exist only in polls And, the public haven't gotten around to thinking about the consequences of remain. Also, the French wouldn't let us back in.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 12, 2022 0:35:10 GMT
it's true in the same way renationalising the railways, nationalising energy companies, rolling out free broadband is popular but as there won't be a government for many moon or ever that'd do all those things that manifesto exist only in polls And, the public haven't gotten around to thinking about the consequences of remain. Also, the French wouldn't let us back in. It wouldn't be remain, but rejoin - there's a big difference: there's no chance of the UK getting back into the EU on terms anything like as favourable as before. I can't see either Labour or the Conservatives even considering EU membership for the next ~20 years, let alone putting it in their manifesto. I could, however, see a Labour government looking into rejoining the Customs Union, especially if they're dependent on Lib Dem votes in parliament.
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Jul 12, 2022 7:00:23 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jul 12, 2022 7:00:23 GMT
And, the public haven't gotten around to thinking about the consequences of remain. Also, the French wouldn't let us back in. It wouldn't be remain, but rejoin - there's a big difference: there's no chance of the UK getting back into the EU on terms anything like as favourable as before. I can't see either Labour or the Conservatives even considering EU membership for the next ~20 years, let alone putting it in their manifesto. I could, however, see a Labour government looking into rejoining the Customs Union, especially if they're dependent on Lib Dem votes in parliament. It begs the question of whether EEA and customs might be the right choice for an independent Scotland.
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 12, 2022 16:07:49 GMT
It wouldn't be remain, but rejoin - there's a big difference: there's no chance of the UK getting back into the EU on terms anything like as favourable as before. I can't see either Labour or the Conservatives even considering EU membership for the next ~20 years, let alone putting it in their manifesto. I could, however, see a Labour government looking into rejoining the Customs Union, especially if they're dependent on Lib Dem votes in parliament. It begs the question of whether EEA and customs might be the right choice for an independent Scotland.
I'd posit that it might be / might've been the 'right choice' for a whole load of countries, both those currently in and out of the EU, and indeed those yet to exist.
A model with fewer core full-fat EU states and EEA/Customs as the default would've had a lot going for it.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 12, 2022 22:56:39 GMT
It begs the question of whether EEA and customs might be the right choice for an independent Scotland.
I'd posit that it might be / might've been the 'right choice' for a whole load of countries, both those currently in and out of the EU, and indeed those yet to exist.
A model with fewer core full-fat EU states and EEA/Customs as the default would've had a lot going for it.
I’ve thought the EU has needed a sort of associate membership for a while now, where states gain certain privileges once they reach certain economic goals (triggered once that country is ready). As an example, a lot of the discontent regarding EU immigration in Britain can be traced back to the 2004 expansion and the UK government’s decision to allow citizens from the new states to live and work in the UK upon joining. If the right to work elsewhere was only awarded once a country reaches 80% of the median GDP per capita (a simplistic measurement for a guide), it would limit the chance of a mass brain drain due to the huge relative difference in development between countries and could improve the economic state of the new member faster - especially with EEA/Customs membership being obtained on entry. I think the lack of acknowledgment that different countries need, and want, to integrate at different speeds has been one of the biggest weaknesses of the EU. Countries like the UK or Sweden have very different requirements and contexts to Germany or Belgium.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jul 12, 2022 23:56:56 GMT
People; they are warming up to freedom of movement, the single market and the Euro.... 😬😬 I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro. There are, frankly, ways around that given that we are unlikely to see the demise of the krona, złoty, forint, or koruna česká any time soon.
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clyde1998
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Jul 13, 2022 0:15:11 GMT
Post by clyde1998 on Jul 13, 2022 0:15:11 GMT
It wouldn't be remain, but rejoin - there's a big difference: there's no chance of the UK getting back into the EU on terms anything like as favourable as before. I can't see either Labour or the Conservatives even considering EU membership for the next ~20 years, let alone putting it in their manifesto. I could, however, see a Labour government looking into rejoining the Customs Union, especially if they're dependent on Lib Dem votes in parliament. It begs the question of whether EEA and customs might be the right choice for an independent Scotland. It could well be and should be something that's seriously looked at; having a Norway-style solution could be very beneficial to an independent Scotland, especially in first decade, and could act as a good balance between keeping positive trading relations with both the EU and the rUK. Having opt-outs in regards to CAP and the CFP would make a lot of people in rural and coastal areas happy too.
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Jul 13, 2022 6:14:02 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 6:14:02 GMT
I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro. There are, frankly, ways around that given that we are unlikely to see the demise of the krona, złoty, forint, or koruna česká any time soon. It is a legal obligation. Getting into very dodgy water if we can try and rejoin then duck the obligations.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 13, 2022 7:08:42 GMT
I’ve thought the EU has needed a sort of associate membership for a while now, where states gain certain privileges once they reach certain economic goals (triggered once that country is ready). It was clear before the referendum that this is what the UK would have preferred. On balance we wanted a little less EU. The choice given to us was all of it or non of it. The country split nearly 50-50. Had there been an associate member option, that would have won.
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YouGov
Jul 13, 2022 7:24:31 GMT
Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2022 7:24:31 GMT
There are, frankly, ways around that given that we are unlikely to see the demise of the krona, złoty, forint, or koruna česká any time soon. It is a legal obligation. Getting into very dodgy water if we can try and rejoin then duck the obligations. It is indeed, but one that other countries have worked around without difficulty. Sweden in particular has demonstrated an acceptable, but compliant, approach.
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Jul 13, 2022 7:38:41 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 13, 2022 7:38:41 GMT
I’ve thought the EU has needed a sort of associate membership for a while now, where states gain certain privileges once they reach certain economic goals (triggered once that country is ready). It was clear before the referendum that this is what the UK would have preferred. On balance we wanted a little less EU. The choice given to us was all of it or non of it. The country split nearly 50-50. Had there been an associate member option, that would have won. The post referendum surveys such as the BES showed that "sovereignty" was a much bigger issue for Leavers than freedom of movement. (of course in a globalised world we don't have much "sovereignty" anyway, but most people don't notice that)
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 13, 2022 7:49:07 GMT
It was clear before the referendum that this is what the UK would have preferred. On balance we wanted a little less EU. The choice given to us was all of it or non of it. The country split nearly 50-50. Had there been an associate member option, that would have won. The post referendum surveys such as the BES showed that "sovereignty" was a much bigger issue for Leavers than freedom of movement. (of course in a globalised world we don't have much "sovereignty" anyway, but most people don't notice that) But there weren't many leavers pre referendum (or many remainers). Most people didn't much care. The referendum campaign polarised people. Had there been an associate member option, it wouldn't have.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 8:03:56 GMT
It's actually quite easy to see what associate membership looks like. Customs union and most of EEA but no free movement (at a push, free movement for workers like CH has), and a vote (and veto where applicable) on issues which relate to associate membership.
I don't see why that isn't workable from an EU perspective.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 13, 2022 8:15:33 GMT
It's actually quite easy to see what associate membership looks like. Customs union and most of EEA but no free movement (at a push, free movement for workers like CH has), and a vote (and veto where applicable) on issues which relate to associate membership. I don't see why that isn't workable from an EU perspective. The EU don't want another ragbag agreement which has proved an irritant with Switzerland. The 'associate membership' is EFTA/EEA. I also think the UK is simply too big to be in the 'outer lane', which inevitably will mean less influence.
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YouGov
Jul 13, 2022 8:33:01 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 13, 2022 8:33:01 GMT
The post referendum surveys such as the BES showed that "sovereignty" was a much bigger issue for Leavers than freedom of movement. (of course in a globalised world we don't have much "sovereignty" anyway, but most people don't notice that) But there weren't many leavers pre referendum (or many remainers). Most people didn't much care. The referendum campaign polarised people. Had there been an associate member option, it wouldn't have. Being an associate economic member with little political union would have won at a canter, but the EU is a political union before it is an economic union, so it was never going to be an option, unfortunately.
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obsie
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Jul 13, 2022 14:31:44 GMT
Post by obsie on Jul 13, 2022 14:31:44 GMT
It's actually quite easy to see what associate membership looks like. Customs union and most of EEA but no free movement (at a push, free movement for workers like CH has), and a vote (and veto where applicable) on issues which relate to associate membership. I don't see why that isn't workable from an EU perspective. There is no sign - certainly not yet - of the UK behaving in good faith for the trust that would be required for such an arrangement. The Tories getting smashed at the next election would be a first requirement that might indicate that the fever has broken.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 13, 2022 15:05:24 GMT
It's actually quite easy to see what associate membership looks like. Customs union and most of EEA but no free movement (at a push, free movement for workers like CH has), and a vote (and veto where applicable) on issues which relate to associate membership. I don't see why that isn't workable from an EU perspective. There is no sign - certainly not yet - of the UK behaving in good faith for the trust that would be required for such an arrangement. The Tories getting smashed at the next election would be a first requirement that might indicate that the fever has broken. Ignoring the partisanship - this wouldn't just apply to the UK. There are clearly those inside and those outside the EU who would be comfortable with a loose arrangement involving pooled sovereignty, which allows for free trade, without coalescing to macrostate with a single currency, and simultaneously letting (infact, actively enabling) those that want the macrostate do that. It would require a compromise - for instance that free movement of goods has to involve free movement of people would simply have to go. In the real world the biggest impediment is linguistic barriers anyway. Free movement could be fully maintained in the inner circle (and may be an option for each outer circle country).
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