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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 15:23:05 GMT
Post by grahammurray on Jul 4, 2022 15:23:05 GMT
Losing Cannon Hill is probably good for the Lib Dems - it is one the least remain parts of Wimbledon, and bad for the tories. Adding Kingston wards will generally be bad for Labour, not great for the Tories, and good for the Lib Dems. Overall I see this just making this an easier Lib Dem gain (infact a notional hold). It reduces the chances of Labour getting 2nd too. There was always a possibility that the tories fell from 1st to 3rd here, and I think that is now less likely. Incidentally, the Lib Dems should work neighbouring Putney very hard - much of the Labour vote there is extremely soft centre-right angry remainer. If the Lib Dems ever got into the top 2, they could win the seat pretty easily in my view (and I've knocked on thousands of doors there). They could certainly repeat what they've done in Wimbledon given the pretty similar (I'd argue better) demographics. It could well be their best seat from a demographic perspective in the country. Do you not believe that the LDs outperform at local elections here? I note that in one of the Kingston wards the Residents Association has a councillor. Do those votes not tend to shift Tory at GEs? Do you mean George Galloway's campaign manager? Probably not the most natural repository for Conservative voters.
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islington
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Post by islington on Jul 4, 2022 15:43:43 GMT
I have now looked at the proposed changes re- Wimbledon. Certainly not helpful for Labour. My sense is that they would benefit the Tories when account is taken of some strong support for Residents' Association candidates and the tendency for LDs to outperform at local elections. Is there any sense as to how likely the proposed changes are to be confirmed? The Boundary Commission is due to publish its revised proposals in the autumn.
As to how likely it is that bits of Kingston will be added - Well, you never know for sure but I'd say it's highly likely because Merton is short of numbers for two seats so it needs some extra voters from somewhere. But it's sandwiched between Wandsworth and Sutton, which are good for 3 and 2 whole seats respectively. Meanwhile, Kingston together with the part of Richmond south of the river is now too big for the two seats it currently has, so realistically it must be very probable that it will get rid of its surplus voters by lending a couple of wards to short-of-numbers Merton, thus killing two birds with one stone.
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 18:15:49 GMT
Post by graham on Jul 4, 2022 18:15:49 GMT
Do you not believe that the LDs outperform at local elections here? I note that in one of the Kingston wards the Residents Association has a councillor. Do those votes not tend to shift Tory at GEs? Do you mean George Galloway's campaign manager? Probably not the most natural repository for Conservative voters. Are you suggesting he pulls in Labour votes in St James ward?
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 18:32:28 GMT
Post by grahammurray on Jul 4, 2022 18:32:28 GMT
Do you mean George Galloway's campaign manager? Probably not the most natural repository for Conservative voters. Are you suggesting he pulls in Labour votes in St James ward? I'm not suggesting he hoovers up the Workers' Party vote.
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 18:55:43 GMT
Post by graham on Jul 4, 2022 18:55:43 GMT
Are you suggesting he pulls in Labour votes in St James ward? I'm not suggesting he hoovers up the Workers' Party vote. How does he manage to get elected in the Kingston area?
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 19:22:42 GMT
Post by grahammurray on Jul 4, 2022 19:22:42 GMT
I'm not suggesting he hoovers up the Workers' Party vote. How does he manage to get elected in the Kingston area? Different boundaries but it doesn't look like they predominantly took Conservative votes.
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batman
Labour
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 20:17:36 GMT
Post by batman on Jul 4, 2022 20:17:36 GMT
I'm not suggesting he hoovers up the Workers' Party vote. How does he manage to get elected in the Kingston area? By somehow shrugging off his previous (or possibly still current?) association with Galloway & talking only about local issues.
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 20:54:52 GMT
Post by michaelarden on Jul 4, 2022 20:54:52 GMT
Losing Cannon Hill is probably good for the Lib Dems - it is one the least remain parts of Wimbledon, and bad for the tories. Adding Kingston wards will generally be bad for Labour, not great for the Tories, and good for the Lib Dems. Overall I see this just making this an easier Lib Dem gain (infact a notional hold). It reduces the chances of Labour getting 2nd too. There was always a possibility that the tories fell from 1st to 3rd here, and I think that is now less likely. Incidentally, the Lib Dems should work neighbouring Putney very hard - much of the Labour vote there is extremely soft centre-right angry remainer. If the Lib Dems ever got into the top 2, they could win the seat pretty easily in my view (and I've knocked on thousands of doors there). They could certainly repeat what they've done in Wimbledon given the pretty similar (I'd argue better) demographics. It could well be their best seat from a demographic perspective in the country. There is also a chance the boundary commission may accept the Conservative proposals to include the two Coombe Wards from Kingston into Wimbledon rather than the Old Malden/St James wards. If they did it certainly wouldn't benefit Labour and probably wouldn't benefit the Lib Dems either - even after their second landslide in the Kingston locals.
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YouGov
Jul 4, 2022 23:01:58 GMT
Post by graham on Jul 4, 2022 23:01:58 GMT
How does he manage to get elected in the Kingston area? By somehow shrugging off his previous (or possibly still current?) association with Galloway & talking only about local issues. How would those voters vote in a GE? I accept that we have to bear in mind that at local elections people have 2 - or 3 - votes and it is entirely possible that he receives the second votes of a wide spectrum of voters.
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iain
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YouGov
Jul 5, 2022 0:15:00 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Jul 5, 2022 0:15:00 GMT
By somehow shrugging off his previous (or possibly still current?) association with Galloway & talking only about local issues. How would those voters vote in a GE? I accept that we have to bear in mind that at local elections people have 2 - or 3 - votes and it is entirely possible that he receives the second votes of a wide spectrum of voters. All over the place. Given this is Kingston, probably largely Lib Dem or Tory, with margins depending on the national situation. From looking at nearby wards in Kingston, it’s pretty clear that the ward would have returned 2 Lib Dems with a decent majority over the Tories if not for the relatively strong RA vote.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 8, 2022 7:21:30 GMT
CON 29 (-4) LAB 40 (+1) LIB DEM 15 (+2) GREEN 6 (n/c) REF UK 3 (-1)
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 8, 2022 9:15:20 GMT
CON 29 (-4) LAB 40 (+1) LIB DEM 15 (+2) GREEN 6 (n/c) REF UK 3 (-1) That's only two handfuls in Norfolk.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2022 10:23:32 GMT
That was such a delusional comment, wasn't it. But its the sort of rubbish that much of the right wing media repeats uncritically.
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YouGov
Jul 8, 2022 13:15:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Jul 8, 2022 13:15:02 GMT
There's been a disconnect between the sort of swings against the Tories in various national by-elections and the Tory share in the polls until now.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 8, 2022 13:24:28 GMT
There's been a disconnect between the sort of swings against the Tories in various national by-elections and the Tory share in the polls until now. The question in polls is "How would you vote at a General Election?" i.e. when the government is on the line, which is not the case in a by-election.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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YouGov
Jul 11, 2022 17:56:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Jul 11, 2022 17:56:50 GMT
People; they are warming up to freedom of movement, the single market and the Euro....
😬😬
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Post by aargauer on Jul 11, 2022 18:02:49 GMT
People; they are warming up to freedom of movement, the single market and the Euro.... 😬😬 I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 11, 2022 18:15:30 GMT
The poll could show 99% of people want to rejoin and it wouldn't change the fact that given there won't be another referendum at least for the next two or three parliaments it's about as relevant as a poll in the Palestinian authority.
The most popular polls shared are the ones that never happen
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 11, 2022 18:28:45 GMT
People; they are warming up to freedom of movement, the single market and the Euro.... 😬😬 I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro.liked for this bit
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YouGov
Jul 11, 2022 18:44:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Jul 11, 2022 18:44:36 GMT
People; they are warming up to freedom of movement, the single market and the Euro.... 😬😬 I have all the time in the world for people who'd rather we remained, but you'd have to be certifiable to want to join the Euro. With a weak economy like ours, probably true 😉
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