Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,158
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Dec 22, 2020 12:20:58 GMT
This even-stevens stuff seems fairly well set in....
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 22, 2020 12:22:00 GMT
This even-stevens stuff seems fairly well set in.... Which when you think about it is mad... how the hell can Labour not get ahead of this shambles.
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 22, 2020 12:37:18 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Dec 22, 2020 12:37:18 GMT
This even-stevens stuff seems fairly well set in.... Which when you think about it is mad... how the hell can Labour not get ahead of this shambles.
For the love of Boris.......
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 22, 2020 12:40:59 GMT
Please note when this polling was actually done, eh?
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 22, 2020 12:49:37 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Dec 22, 2020 12:49:37 GMT
Please note when this polling was actually done, eh?
Changes to tiers will make hardly any impact going forward.
I don't expect polls to change much for the next 6 months minimum.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 22, 2020 12:55:14 GMT
Its maybe not the "changes to tiers" that is the important thing, though.
The governments actions at the weekend p***ed off a lot of people in a way that could quite possibly be reflected at least a bit in the polls.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,054
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 22, 2020 13:28:39 GMT
Please note when this polling was actually done, eh? wise maxim Also to quote Sir Robert Worcester watch the shares not the lead
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 22, 2020 16:09:34 GMT
I have a little theory as to the stability of the Tory poll numbers. Much, maybe even most, of the electorate do not see Covid (that is, not merely the disease, but the surrounding response and consequences) and politics as being interlinked. This explains why you hear so many people blaming the masses for whatever absurd new rules come into place, rather than the government for being the ones actually implementing them.
The economic catastrophe may eventually change things, but only after it has been sufficiently separated from Covid in the minds of the voters.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,158
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Dec 22, 2020 16:16:54 GMT
I have a little theory as to the stability of the Tory poll numbers. Much, maybe even most, of the electorate do not see Covid (that is, not merely the disease, but the surrounding response and consequences) and politics as being interlinked. This explains why you hear so many people blaming the masses for whatever absurd new rules come into place, rather than the government for being the ones actually implementing them. The economic catastrophe may eventually change things, but only after it has been sufficiently separated from Covid in the minds of the voters. To add to that, the response of all mainstream parties has been pretty much the same in any case, so there's no reason why any party would either benefit or suffer in consequence
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 22, 2020 16:41:29 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Dec 22, 2020 16:41:29 GMT
My reading of the Tory level is that it has been sagging and risks a bit of a collapse when there is a catalytic event. What that might be is not clear - the chaos at present over Christmas and Dover may be such if it goes on and if Covid+Brexit results in visibly empty shelves for some goods. But I would be surprised if Labour goes up much. But the numbers have to go somewhere and if there are no credible alternative recipients at present, perhaps the "don't know" figure is the one to watch?
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
|
YouGov
Dec 22, 2020 17:00:44 GMT
Post by johng on Dec 22, 2020 17:00:44 GMT
Data from today.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,842
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Dec 22, 2020 18:33:23 GMT
It is under discussed but there is still a decent argument that the government retains quite a lot of the ‘Covid bounce’ it got at the start of the crisis. Many world leaders are still polling noticeably better than they were pre-Covid and a lot of our government’s Covid policies still poll very well. It wouldn’t surprise me if a large number of potential swing voters are still giving the government the benefit of the doubt (unprecedented situation, sure they’re doing the best they can etc) even if they are not completely impressed by the government’s competence overall.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,054
|
YouGov
Dec 22, 2020 18:36:47 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 22, 2020 18:36:47 GMT
It is under discussed but there is still a decent argument that the government retains quite a lot of the ‘Covid bounce’ it got at the start of the crisis. Many world leaders are still polling noticeably better than they were pre-Covid and a lot of our government’s Covid policies still poll very well. It wouldn’t surprise me if a large number of potential swing voters are still giving the government the benefit of the doubt (unprecedented situation, sure they’re doing the best they can etc) even if they are not completely impressed by the government’s competence overall. a fair summary
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,284
|
Post by Sibboleth on Dec 22, 2020 19:13:48 GMT
Considering that the government won a landslide a year ago and were regularly clocking up leads of 20pts at the start of the year (let alone during the early phase of the Rona Crisis), it is just about possible that 'why are they holding up so well!' is perhaps the wrong question to be asking.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 23, 2020 3:24:41 GMT
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 23, 2020 21:17:50 GMT
Post by bigfatron on Dec 23, 2020 21:17:50 GMT
On the tabs, comparing progressive (Labour, LDem, SNP, PC) v reactionary (Tory, Brexit) party voting by gender is startling: men are 49 v 49, women are 68 v 32...
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 23, 2020 21:59:57 GMT
Post by greenhert on Dec 23, 2020 21:59:57 GMT
|
|
|
YouGov
Dec 23, 2020 22:24:46 GMT
Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2020 22:24:46 GMT
The sample size is fine - any proportions should be considered plus or minus ~5% with that size, and so a gap of 26% is practically certain to be genuine (though could probably be anywhere in the 20-30% range). The only issue would be if the sample is biased, but they seem to have weighted well for both party and type of council. The latter could be important as district and county councillors may feel differently about taking such responsibilities, and actually there may be signs of that in the data, though the numbers are too small to make conclusions on any subsamples.
|
|
hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
|
Post by hengo on Dec 24, 2020 8:31:01 GMT
My reading of the Tory level is that it has been sagging and risks a bit of a collapse when there is a catalytic event. What that might be is not clear - the chaos at present over Christmas and Dover may be such if it goes on and if Covid+Brexit results in visibly empty shelves for some goods. But I would be surprised if Labour goes up much. But the numbers have to go somewhere and if there are no credible alternative recipients at present, perhaps the "don't know" figure is the one to watch? We can all be confused by optimism. Perhaps I am too, but I would expect, barring, as always, unforeseeable events, the current level of Conservative support to be at or close to the low water mark. Given everything that has happened over the last few years it feels remarkable to me that we are not behind in the polls at this stage. With a deal in place , and Brexit finally done, the markets should rise sharply. The vaccination programme will soon be well under way with consequent benefits to health and the economy and, in this context , political benefit to the government from our being seen to have procured the vaccine more effectively than our neighbours and economic competitors. More generally we should see a substantial growth in the world economy as recovery takes hold. The experience of the last decade or two seems to show that our economy in particular is more flexible and quicker to respond than those in Euroland, while even now, with its nature resulting in a sharper impact from the pandemic our levels of unemployment are roughly half those in much of Europe. So! Being an optimist on the whole I can see better times ahead. And, though I know many here will disagree wildly, I have a hunch that Boris will not be blamed much in retrospect for missteps the government took in handling the pandemic through its early months, but will get the credit for delivering Brexit. I also rather feel he will be a much more confident and convincing leader when things generally are looking up.
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Dec 24, 2020 9:07:59 GMT
My reading of the Tory level is that it has been sagging and risks a bit of a collapse when there is a catalytic event. What that might be is not clear - the chaos at present over Christmas and Dover may be such if it goes on and if Covid+Brexit results in visibly empty shelves for some goods. But I would be surprised if Labour goes up much. But the numbers have to go somewhere and if there are no credible alternative recipients at present, perhaps the "don't know" figure is the one to watch? We can all be confused by optimism. Perhaps I am too, but I would expect, barring, as always, unforeseeable events, the current level of Conservative support to be at or close to the low water mark. Given everything that has happened over the last few years it feels remarkable to me that we are not behind in the polls at this stage. With a deal in place , and Brexit finally done, the markets should rise sharply. The vaccination programme will soon be well under way with consequent benefits to health and the economy and, in this context , political benefit to the government from our being seen to have procured the vaccine more effectively than our neighbours and economic competitors. More generally we should see a substantial growth in the world economy as recovery takes hold. The experience of the last decade or two seems to show that our economy in particular is more flexible and quicker to respond than those in Euroland, while even now, with its nature resulting in a sharper impact from the pandemic our levels of unemployment are roughly half those in much of Europe. So! Being an optimist on the whole I can see better times ahead. And, though I know many here will disagree wildly, I have a hunch that Boris will not be blamed much in retrospect for missteps the government took in handling the pandemic through its early months, but will get the credit for delivering Brexit. I also rather feel he will be a much more confident and convincing leader when things generally are looking up. There's some of this I'd agree with, particularly the last bit. He's not a leader for adversity. His rather lightweight and cheery approach suits the sunny uplands. How sunny will those be?
There'll be some adjustment problems. While a deal is very welcome (as opposed to no deal) this is a thin deal. The extra bureaucracy (and costs) will still be some drag and, as services dominate our economy and aren't covered in the deal, we'll be finding out how that works in reality. And even Brexity economists have accepted at least a medium term underperformance as these adjustments work through and we attempt to build other trade opportunities. We know that some industries (cars in particular) have complex supply chains and may have some overcapacity. They signalled alarm at No Deal. That doesn't mean that they are committed with a thin deal.
Our economy has taken a heavier hit than almost any other. While I'd agree that our relative flexibility will help, the virus has exposed the weak foundations of significant parts of it - there may be no return for quite a few businesses. And that would leave a substantial wedge of hard-to-employ people. In possible balance to that (but we've seen the limits in trying to turn our natives to picking vegetables, and we may find it again when we seek fishing crews) the sharp reduction in EU migration may allow some opportunities.
Our public finances are shattered. It will be a test of Conservatism as to how any response is built. We've seen some party tensions on this already. Too quick an attempt to reduce the deficit will be counter-productive (and socially divisive).
And the non-economic elements of Brexit have to be tested. What does "sovereignty" (my offensive quotation marks I'm afraid!) actually mean, and how seriously are our pretensions taken by others?
I tend to think about where my skin is in this game. I disinvested from much of the UK economy a while back and haven't regretted that - other markets have outperformed the UK for a while, and the sinking value of sterling helps with foreign holdings. I kept in the start-up size and I'd be looking at small company equities with interest but would be avoiding much of the large corporates still. That accurately reflects the comments above - flexible, fast-moving businesses able to adjust quickly.
|
|