hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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YouGov
Dec 24, 2020 10:41:43 GMT
Post by hengo on Dec 24, 2020 10:41:43 GMT
My comment was intended to simply reflect my musings on the political position in response to Tony Greaves remark , which struck me as over optimistic in his hope that the Tory vote was “ sagging” and likely to collapse. As ever our intellectual analysis tends to follow our desires and emotional reactions, and I prefaced my response with an acknowledgement that I too may be misled by optimism. As you know I disagree with your scepticism about sovereignty , but it’s a matter of weight rather than principle- we might agree that only a fool thinks that any modern nation enjoys untrammelled sovereignty, but I’d also say that only the purblind will maintain that our parliament will not have substantially more control over our laws than it had before we left. I happen to believe that additional control is a good thing. Whether our economy will recover more or less rapidly from the effects of the pandemic as a consequence of Brexit will be I think pretty difficult to analyse , and people’s judgement on that will probably simply reflect whether they were in favour of it or not. As you point out the different nature of our economy has meant that the pandemic has had a greater adverse effect on it than on our competitors. My hunch, and it is no more, is that our growth, as we recover, may also be more rapid. That won’t be due to Brexit either, but will merge with it in the public mind. Ex Remainers will argue that we would be doing even better if we’d stayed in, but that’s a hard point to make any impact with. On the other hand , if I’m wrong and our economy picks up more slowly than others it may have nothing to do with Brexit either, but it will get the blame! We’ll see. It will be fascinating.
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YouGov
Dec 24, 2020 10:54:57 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Dec 24, 2020 10:54:57 GMT
My comment was intended to simply reflect my musings on the political position in response to Tony Greaves remark , which struck me as over optimistic in his hope that the Tory vote was “ sagging” and likely to collapse. As ever our intellectual analysis tends to follow our desires and emotional reactions, and I prefaced my response with an acknowledgement that I too may be misled by optimism. As you know I disagree with your scepticism about sovereignty , but it’s a matter of weight rather than principle- we might agree that only a fool thinks that any modern nation enjoys untrammelled sovereignty, but I’d also say that only the purblind will maintain that our parliament will not have substantially more control over our laws than it had before we left. I happen to believe that additional control is a good thing. Whether our economy will recover more or less rapidly from the effects of the pandemic as a consequence of Brexit will be I think pretty difficult to analyse , and people’s judgement on that will probably simply reflect whether they were in favour of it or not. As you point out the different nature of our economy has meant that the pandemic has had a greater adverse effect on it than on our competitors. My hunch, and it is no more, is that our growth, as we recover, may also be more rapid. That won’t be due to Brexit either, but will merge with it in the public mind. Ex Remainers will argue that we would be doing even better if we’d stayed in, but that’s a hard point to make any impact with. On the other hand , if I’m wrong and our economy picks up more slowly than others it may have nothing to do with Brexit either, but it will get the blame! We’ll see. It will be fascinating. I would have thought the priority should be developing policies for a Britain outside the EU. Both party leaderships are essentially globalisers and market-driven. On both left and right there are people who are sceptical about globalisation and support protectionist approaches albeit from different political roots. This is where the debate could become interesting....
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 24, 2020 11:07:29 GMT
We can all be confused by optimism. Perhaps I am too, but I would expect, barring, as always, unforeseeable events, the current level of Conservative support to be at or close to the low water mark. Given everything that has happened over the last few years it feels remarkable to me that we are not behind in the polls at this stage. With a deal in place , and Brexit finally done, the markets should rise sharply. The vaccination programme will soon be well under way with consequent benefits to health and the economy and, in this context , political benefit to the government from our being seen to have procured the vaccine more effectively than our neighbours and economic competitors. More generally we should see a substantial growth in the world economy as recovery takes hold. The experience of the last decade or two seems to show that our economy in particular is more flexible and quicker to respond than those in Euroland, while even now, with its nature resulting in a sharper impact from the pandemic our levels of unemployment are roughly half those in much of Europe. So! Being an optimist on the whole I can see better times ahead. And, though I know many here will disagree wildly, I have a hunch that Boris will not be blamed much in retrospect for missteps the government took in handling the pandemic through its early months, but will get the credit for delivering Brexit. I also rather feel he will be a much more confident and convincing leader when things generally are looking up. There's some of this I'd agree with, particularly the last bit. He's not a leader for adversity. His rather lightweight and cheery approach suits the sunny uplands. How sunny will those be?
There'll be some adjustment problems. While a deal is very welcome (as opposed to no deal) this is a thin deal. The extra bureaucracy (and costs) will still be some drag and, as services dominate our economy and aren't covered in the deal, we'll be finding out how that works in reality. And even Brexity economists have accepted at least a medium term underperformance as these adjustments work through and we attempt to build other trade opportunities. We know that some industries (cars in particular) have complex supply chains and may have some overcapacity. They signalled alarm at No Deal. That doesn't mean that they are committed with a thin deal.
Our economy has taken a heavier hit than almost any other. While I'd agree that our relative flexibility will help, the virus has exposed the weak foundations of significant parts of it - there may be no return for quite a few businesses. And that would leave a substantial wedge of hard-to-employ people. In possible balance to that (but we've seen the limits in trying to turn our natives to picking vegetables, and we may find it again when we seek fishing crews) the sharp reduction in EU migration may allow some opportunities.
Our public finances are shattered. It will be a test of Conservatism as to how any response is built. We've seen some party tensions on this already. Too quick an attempt to reduce the deficit will be counter-productive (and socially divisive).
And the non-economic elements of Brexit have to be tested. What does "sovereignty" (my offensive quotation marks I'm afraid!) actually mean, and how seriously are our pretensions taken by others?
I tend to think about where my skin is in this game. I disinvested from much of the UK economy a while back and haven't regretted that - other markets have outperformed the UK for a while, and the sinking value of sterling helps with foreign holdings. I kept in the start-up size and I'd be looking at small company equities with interest but would be avoiding much of the large corporates still. That accurately reflects the comments above - flexible, fast-moving businesses able to adjust quickly.
This wants a separate thread, but if we're crystal-ball gazing I wonder about the whole basis of ideological politics in the 2020s. Pre-Covid Johnson and Sunak seemed to be signalling a future approach based on - The Brexit boil (and Europe as an issue generally) being lanced - Willingness to borrow at scale - Big investment not only generally but specifically in the North and Midlands in some sort of regional development policy - A shift towards net zero and investment in building a green economy - State investment in industry, especially tech Lurking around is a fair bit of chat about being more liberal towards non-EU immigration. Meanwhile, Labour under Starmer has stepped back from Corbynism, but exactly where to is not clear. I don't yet see where the big areas of principled disagreement lie - maybe we are in for a dose of "Butskellism" (not so much actual policy, though now I think of it, it doesn't look so far off at that) but in the sense of broad ideological agreement and competition over who is fittest to deliver. But frankly, who knows?
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YouGov
Dec 24, 2020 11:53:06 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Dec 24, 2020 11:53:06 GMT
There's some of this I'd agree with, particularly the last bit. He's not a leader for adversity. His rather lightweight and cheery approach suits the sunny uplands. How sunny will those be?
There'll be some adjustment problems. While a deal is very welcome (as opposed to no deal) this is a thin deal. The extra bureaucracy (and costs) will still be some drag and, as services dominate our economy and aren't covered in the deal, we'll be finding out how that works in reality. And even Brexity economists have accepted at least a medium term underperformance as these adjustments work through and we attempt to build other trade opportunities. We know that some industries (cars in particular) have complex supply chains and may have some overcapacity. They signalled alarm at No Deal. That doesn't mean that they are committed with a thin deal.
Our economy has taken a heavier hit than almost any other. While I'd agree that our relative flexibility will help, the virus has exposed the weak foundations of significant parts of it - there may be no return for quite a few businesses. And that would leave a substantial wedge of hard-to-employ people. In possible balance to that (but we've seen the limits in trying to turn our natives to picking vegetables, and we may find it again when we seek fishing crews) the sharp reduction in EU migration may allow some opportunities.
Our public finances are shattered. It will be a test of Conservatism as to how any response is built. We've seen some party tensions on this already. Too quick an attempt to reduce the deficit will be counter-productive (and socially divisive).
And the non-economic elements of Brexit have to be tested. What does "sovereignty" (my offensive quotation marks I'm afraid!) actually mean, and how seriously are our pretensions taken by others? I tend to think about where my skin is in this game. I disinvested from much of the UK economy a while back and haven't regretted that - other markets have outperformed the UK for a while, and the sinking value of sterling helps with foreign holdings. I kept in the start-up size and I'd be looking at small company equities with interest but would be avoiding much of the large corporates still. That accurately reflects the comments above - flexible, fast-moving businesses able to adjust quickly.
This wants a separate thread, but if we're crystal-ball gazing I wonder about the whole basis of ideological politics in the 2020s. Pre-Covid Johnson and Sunak seemed to be signalling a future approach based on - The Brexit boil (and Europe as an issue generally) being lanced - Willingness to borrow at scale - Big investment not only generally but specifically in the North and Midlands in some sort of regional development policy - A shift towards net zero and investment in building a green economy - State investment in industry, especially tech Lurking around is a fair bit of chat about being more liberal towards non-EU immigration. Meanwhile, Labour under Starmer has stepped back from Corbynism, but exactly where to is not clear. I don't yet see where the big areas of principled disagreement lie - maybe we are in for a dose of "Butskellism" (not so much actual policy, though now I think of it, it doesn't look so far off at that) but in the sense of broad ideological agreement and competition over who is fittest to deliver. But frankly, who knows? Exactly why we need PR and more parties....
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YouGov
Dec 24, 2020 13:32:31 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 24, 2020 13:32:31 GMT
This wants a separate thread, but if we're crystal-ball gazing I wonder about the whole basis of ideological politics in the 2020s. Pre-Covid Johnson and Sunak seemed to be signalling a future approach based on - The Brexit boil (and Europe as an issue generally) being lanced - Willingness to borrow at scale - Big investment not only generally but specifically in the North and Midlands in some sort of regional development policy - A shift towards net zero and investment in building a green economy - State investment in industry, especially tech Lurking around is a fair bit of chat about being more liberal towards non-EU immigration. Meanwhile, Labour under Starmer has stepped back from Corbynism, but exactly where to is not clear. I don't yet see where the big areas of principled disagreement lie - maybe we are in for a dose of "Butskellism" (not so much actual policy, though now I think of it, it doesn't look so far off at that) but in the sense of broad ideological agreement and competition over who is fittest to deliver. But frankly, who knows? Exactly why we need PR and more parties.... No argument from me!
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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YouGov
Jan 4, 2021 17:41:08 GMT
Post by andrewp on Jan 4, 2021 17:41:08 GMT
I don’t think I know anyone personally who enthusiastically supports it. Although I know there are some in some Facebook groups I’m in. Everyone I know is either resigned to it ( which possibly translates as support in this poll) or opposes it,
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 4, 2021 19:33:17 GMT
I don’t think I know anyone personally who enthusiastically supports it. Although I know there are some in some Facebook groups I’m in. Everyone I know is either resigned to it ( which possibly translates as support in this poll) or opposes it, Have yet to meet one of my carers, probably 7/8 individuals of differing ages from recently left school to 60+, who hasn’t been shouting loudly for it for weeks.
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YouGov
Jan 4, 2021 21:29:47 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jan 4, 2021 21:29:47 GMT
I don’t think I know anyone personally who enthusiastically supports it. Although I know there are some in some Facebook groups I’m in. Everyone I know is either resigned to it ( which possibly translates as support in this poll) or opposes it, Have yet to meet one of my carers, probably 7/8 individuals of differing ages from recently left school to 60+, who hasn’t been shouting loudly for it for weeks. Must depend on one's social circle then. People I know, including carers and family are expecting it, some resigned to it, but none I can remember demanding it.
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timmullen1
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Posts: 11,823
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YouGov
Jan 4, 2021 22:01:13 GMT
Post by timmullen1 on Jan 4, 2021 22:01:13 GMT
Have yet to meet one of my carers, probably 7/8 individuals of differing ages from recently left school to 60+, who hasn’t been shouting loudly for it for weeks. Must depend on one's social circle then. People I know, including carers and family are expecting it, some resigned to it, but none I can remember demanding it. Almost unanimously they have opposed school reopenings in September (which in the real world have been a farce, with kids being in school for two days, then sent home, then back for a few days, then sent home, and repeat), opposed the proposed five day relaxation over Christmas, and would have gone into lockdown at the time of the introduction of the tiers. They are angry that their jobs are being made more difficult by a government seemingly unable to make a decision - the build-up to Christmas was a nightmare with elderly customers adamant that they couldn't visit their families "because Boris said so on the TV". If I risk putting the news on when they're here, and BoJo appears the instant reaction is "bloody [expletive deleted] and "just go into lockdown until we get the vaccine you [expletive deleted]". They also fail to understand why something announced on a Monday - for example pub closings - doesn't come into operation for two or three days meaning everyone piles out for a last p**s up creating further superspreader events.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jan 5, 2021 3:24:41 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2021 3:24:41 GMT
I don’t think I know anyone personally who enthusiastically supports it. Although I know there are some in some Facebook groups I’m in. Everyone I know is either resigned to it ( which possibly translates as support in this poll) or opposes it, I don't know if I'd say 'enthusiastically', but most people I work with (in a hotel) support it in that they think it's necessary. We thought it was inevitable anyway; and to be honest a few of us were saying we'd welcome it because the open period after the second lockdown lifted was a tough slog. (This may be more easily understood by observers if I mention that the owners have been good at looking after the staff and putting people on furlough rather than 'rationalising')
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YouGov
Jan 5, 2021 6:10:36 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jan 5, 2021 6:10:36 GMT
Must depend on one's social circle then. People I know, including carers and family are expecting it, some resigned to it, but none I can remember demanding it. Almost unanimously they have opposed school reopenings in September (which in the real world have been a farce, with kids being in school for two days, then sent home, then back for a few days, then sent home, and repeat), opposed the proposed five day relaxation over Christmas, and would have gone into lockdown at the time of the introduction of the tiers. They are angry that their jobs are being made more difficult by a government seemingly unable to make a decision - the build-up to Christmas was a nightmare with elderly customers adamant that they couldn't visit their families "because Boris said so on the TV". If I risk putting the news on when they're here, and BoJo appears the instant reaction is "bloody [expletive deleted] and "just go into lockdown until we get the vaccine you [expletive deleted]". They also fail to understand why something announced on a Monday - for example pub closings - doesn't come into operation for two or three days meaning everyone piles out for a last p**s up creating further superspreader events. What you just said makes sense and people I know don't think the government knows what it is doing. They're resigned to incompetence, but not calling for lockdown. It's all irrelevant now as lockdown has happened.
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YouGov
Jan 8, 2021 0:34:26 GMT
Post by independentukip on Jan 8, 2021 0:34:26 GMT
YouGov have an especially biased poll on at the moment which at least serves to demonstrate they are not a legitimate organisation.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,487
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 1:49:45 GMT
YouGov have an especially biased poll on at the moment which at least serves to demonstrate they are not a legitimate organisation. I don't see how that's biased, or how it challenges YouGov's legitimacy
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timmullen1
Labour
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Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 8, 2021 4:55:12 GMT
YouGov have an especially biased poll on at the moment which at least serves to demonstrate they are not a legitimate organisation. I don't see how that's biased, or how it challenges YouGov's legitimacy It also presumes that YouGov have designed the questions to be asked; if the survey is on behalf of a third party client then the paying client gets to ask the questions, and as long as they don’t breach the BPCs Code of Conduct, YouGov (or any member of the BPC) are pretty much obliged to follow the client’s wishes.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 8, 2021 11:11:30 GMT
YouGov have an especially biased poll on at the moment which at least serves to demonstrate they are not a legitimate organisation. I don't see how that's biased, or how it challenges YouGov's legitimacy It is biased because it presumes that people think a pardon and/or apology is appropriate and provides no way to answer for people who think that neither is appropriate.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 8, 2021 11:21:18 GMT
I don't see how that's biased, or how it challenges YouGov's legitimacy It is biased because it presumes that people think a pardon and/or apology is appropriate and provides no way to answer for people who think that neither is appropriate. That doesn’t make it biased; it correctly presumes that one option or the other is going to happen and so is asking which option you prefer. The stable door for neither option has been open for so long the horse has won the Triple Crown and retired to stud, so including it as an option is futile. Could not those of a certain mindset have made the same argument about polls asking whether the UK should leave the EU with a deal or without a deal and not include rejoin the EU as an option?
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 9, 2021 9:41:16 GMT
Today's RedBox:-
Con 39 (+2) Lab 39 (-2) LD 6 (+1) Green 6 (+1) Brexit 3 (-1)
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 20, 2021 9:04:22 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 23, 2021 9:44:20 GMT
Today's Redbox:-
Con 39 (+1) Lab 38 (-1) Green 6 LD 5 REFUK 4 (+1)
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jollyroger93
Conservative
One Nation
Posts: 4,210
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YouGov
Jan 23, 2021 10:37:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 23, 2021 10:37:50 GMT
Today's Redbox:- Con 39 (+1) Lab 38 (-1) Green 6 LD 5 REFUK 4 (+1) What is becoming increasing interesting are the greens appear to be outpolling the Lib Dem’s..... is this a trend? And if so can the greens capitalise on it? And who’s voting for them? Lefties? Or are they cultivating a protest vote?
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