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Post by froome on Aug 24, 2018 15:12:02 GMT
1979 - Cornwall N 1983 - Isle of Wight 1987 - Surrey SW 1992 - Eastbourne 1997 - Newbury 2001 - Winchester 2005 - possibly Newbury again? 2010 - Westmorland/Lonsdale 2015 - ? (some Scottish seat I think) 2017 - Richmond Park A byelection in the previous parliament is the link with several of those. 1945 - Hammersmith North 10.7% 1950 - Dorset North 13.6% 1951 - Dorset North 8.0% 1955 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1959 - Cornwall North 9.5% 1964 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1966 - Cornwall North 7.0% 1970 - Cornwall North 4.3% 1974F - Cornwall North 3.9% 1974O - Cornwall North 6.4% 1979 - Cornwall North 3.2% 1983 - Isle of Wight 2.4% 1987 - Surrey SW 5.6% 1992 - Eastbourne 4.6% 1997 - Newbury 5.5% 2001 - Winchester 5.9% 2005 - Newbury 5.9% 2010 - Westmorland 2.2% 2015 - Aberdeenshire West 4.5% (in England Cornwall North 5.4%) 2017 - Eastbourne 8.1%
2017 was the "highest lowest" since 1964, which reinforces the point that quite a lot of Labour voters who had lent their votes to The Liberals, have been put off by the coalition.
Hammersmith North is an interesting one. What areas did that constituency cover? |
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Post by froome on Aug 24, 2018 15:15:58 GMT
Nearly all: CON: 52.2% (-0.7) LAB: 47.8% (+21.5) Conservative HOLD. No UKIP (-20.8) as prev. No Sharon. On the face of it all did plus a small swing direct from the Conservatives. But in fact the actual votes are often very different from the previous occasion with significant churn. Labour-leaning non-voters this time did turn out. Conservative-leaning voters this time not turning out. Many UKIP reverting to not voting at all. The crude analysis is often way, way out. I've liked this post because it is a point I keep trying to make. Changes in vote are never simple, they always include churn, and usually far more than most people realise. And in these days especially, in many places numbers of new voters (ie those who have moved to the area since the last election) will be considerable. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 24, 2018 16:03:41 GMT
It may be *a* factor, but a firmly Tory area like East Herts should be expected to stay with the Tories come what may, shouldn't it? IF it was the case, and it is an if, I always find it quite refreshing if a ‘safe’ area for any party votes for another party at a local election on the basis that they have a candidate who would be the better local councillor. I suspect there is the odd Conservative member in Liverpool or Labour member in East Hertfordshire who would make better councillors than some of the dominant parties councillors in those areas. Of course living in the ward, does not always mean that person will be the better councillor! Not unknown for a local candidate to be a drag on the vote! |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 24, 2018 19:24:11 GMT
1945 - Hammersmith North 10.7% 1950 - Dorset North 13.6% 1951 - Dorset North 8.0% 1955 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1959 - Cornwall North 9.5% 1964 - Cornwall North 9.8% 1966 - Cornwall North 7.0% 1970 - Cornwall North 4.3% 1974F - Cornwall North 3.9% 1974O - Cornwall North 6.4% 1979 - Cornwall North 3.2% 1983 - Isle of Wight 2.4% 1987 - Surrey SW 5.6% 1992 - Eastbourne 4.6% 1997 - Newbury 5.5% 2001 - Winchester 5.9% 2005 - Newbury 5.9% 2010 - Westmorland 2.2% 2015 - Aberdeenshire West 4.5% (in England Cornwall North 5.4%) 2017 - Eastbourne 8.1%
2017 was the "highest lowest" since 1964, which reinforces the point that quite a lot of Labour voters who had lent their votes to The Liberals, have been put off by the coalition.
Hammersmith North is an interesting one. What areas did that constituency cover? The northern part of the old borough of Hammersmith; basically equivalent to the Shepherd's Bush half of the 1997-2010 constituency of Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush (meaning Hammersmith & Fulham was really "Barons Court & Fulham").
The reason why the Labour vote was so low there was because most of it went to Independent Labour MP Denis Pritt, who had been expelled from Labour in 1940 for defending the USSR's invasion of Finland during World War II. He lost it in 1950 to a very different sort of Labour MP-Frank Tomney, whose moderate and pro-European views partly contributed to his deselection in 1979.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 24, 2018 20:00:45 GMT
Er, not sure about the 'moderate'. Being on the opposite side of Labour to the left doesn't necessarily mean an approach that can reasonably be described as moderate. Frank Tomney was described by Andrew Roth as "Plot-happy far-Right TU-Loyalist" and "Pro:hanging, US, TUs; anti:CP,BBC,migrants".
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Aug 24, 2018 20:27:28 GMT
And, just to add to that, it seems the two deciding factors in Tomney's deselection were his advanced age - he was in his 70s by the time of the 1979 general election - and his reactionary attitudes to immigration and race relations; one 'party official' told Eric Shaw (the author of a book on Labour's party management) that Tomney's views on the latter "would have gone down well in the National Front". None of this really related to his status as a Labour right-winger per se - indeed, Hammersmith North CLP was far from being uniformly of the left at the time.
According to Shaw, the Times did try to present Tomney as a common-sense 'moderate' in the Reg Prentice mould when reporting on his appeal against deselection.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2018 9:26:05 GMT
Hammersmith North sticks out like a sore thumb there doesn't it. Of course it was won by Labour Independent, and Moscow apologist, D.N.Pritt. Other than when the constituency was split up during the Blair/Brown years, and the Tories won Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005, it's been Labour ever since, and the majority is very large now. One thing that shouldn't be forgotten is that 1945 was the last GE when Labour left a significant number of GB seats uncontested. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 25, 2018 12:15:04 GMT
Hammersmith North sticks out like a sore thumb there doesn't it. Of course it was won by Labour Independent, and Moscow apologist, D.N.Pritt. Other than when the constituency was split up during the Blair/Brown years, and the Tories won Hammersmith & Fulham in 2005, it's been Labour ever since, and the majority is very large now. One thing that shouldn't be forgotten is that 1945 was the last GE when Labour left a significant number of GB seats uncontested. 20 to be precise. This included 8 close Conservative-Liberal contests (4 won each), and 5 cases where there was a Labour inclined independent, generally Commonwealth (3 of whom won). This may have motivated the failure to run a candidate in a handful of other Conservative inclined seats as well. They also did not oppose Winston Churchill. The others were hopeless cases like the City of London and St Georges(Westminster). If anyone is interested I will list them. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 25, 2018 13:54:23 GMT
Er, not sure about the 'moderate'. Being on the opposite side of Labour to the left doesn't necessarily mean an approach that can reasonably be described as moderate. Frank Tomney was described by Andrew Roth as "Plot-happy far-Right TU-Loyalist" and "Pro:hanging, US, TUs; anti:CP,BBC,migrants". Sensible chap, by the sound of it. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 25, 2018 13:54:59 GMT
One thing that shouldn't be forgotten is that 1945 was the last GE when Labour left a significant number of GB seats uncontested. 20 to be precise. This included 8 close Conservative-Liberal contests (4 won each), and 5 cases where there was a Labour inclined independent, generally Commonwealth (3 of whom won). This may have motivated the failure to run a candidate in a handful of other Conservative inclined seats as well. They also did not oppose Winston Churchill. The others were hopeless cases like the City of London and St Georges(Westminster). If anyone is interested I will list them. Please do. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 26, 2018 11:19:25 GMT
Consider it done
Conservative-Liberal contests Bewdley C 17,393(55.0%) Lib 14,223(45.0%) Aberdeenshire West C 10,932(51.5%) Lib 10,290(48.5%) Leominster C 14,224(51.1%) Lib 13,586(48.9%) Cumberland North C 11,855(49.6%) Lib 12,053(50.4%) Buckrose C 14,985(48.5%) Lib 15,934(51.5%) -this is Bridlington Dorset North C 12,479(46.4%) Lib 14,444(53.6%) Cornwall North C 16,171(45.4%) Lib 18,836(52.9%) Ind 626(1.8%) Montgomery C 10,895(43.7%) Lib 14,018(56.3%)
Independent Labour/Commonwealth St Georges C 13,086(67.2%) Commonwealth 6383(32.8%) - this is in Westminster Thirsk & Malton C 20,483(60.1%) Commonwealth 13,572(39.9%) Aldershot C 19,456(57.4%) Commonwealth 14,435(42.6%) Sheffield Eccleshall C 18,120(54.0%) Commonwealth 12,045(35.9%) Lib 3391(10.1%) Chelmsford C 25,229(43.2%) Commonwealth 27,309(46.7%) Lib 5909(10.1%) Glasgow Camlachie C 11,399(42.3%) ILP 15,558(57.7%) Glasgow Bridgeton C 6695(33.6%) ILP 13,220(66.4%)
Both Petersfield C 20,838(58.4%) Lib 8,269(23.2%) Commonwealth 6,600(18.5%) Evesham C 17,835(53.4%) Lib 7,849(23.5%) Commonwealth 7,727(23.1%)
Others City of London (2 seats) C 5332,5309 (78.8%) Lib 1487(11.0%) Ind 1379(10.2%) - bit of a rotten borough..... Woodford C 27,688 (72.5%) Ind 10,488(27.5%) - Churchill's seat |
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 26, 2018 11:43:08 GMT
Sheffield Eccleshall C 18,120(54.0%) Commonwealth 12,045(35.9%) Lib 3391(10.1%) Eccleshall is in Staffordshire not Sheffield. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 26, 2018 11:47:50 GMT
Sheffield Eccleshall C 18,120(54.0%) Commonwealth 12,045(35.9%) Lib 3391(10.1%) Eccleshall is in Staffordshire not Sheffield. I think it should be Sheffield, Ecclesall |
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2018 9:22:26 GMT
Cornwall North C 16,171(45.4%) Lib 18,836(52.9%) Ind 626(1.8%) In fact the Independent candidate here was a Labour member, but the national party declined to back them and recommended their supporters vote for the sitting Liberal MP Tom Horabin instead. He actually defected to Labour in the subsequent parliament and stood, unsuccessfully, in Exeter under his new colours in 1950. |
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Post by neilm on Aug 27, 2018 19:01:46 GMT
Many thanks!
Buckrose was named after a wapentake IIRC and was unchanged from the 1885 review.
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Post by neilm on Aug 27, 2018 20:27:59 GMT
It was certainly one of those seats that hardly anyone would have known where the hell it was. At least Bucklow survives in 2 ward names. Knutsford, I think? |
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Post by neilm on Aug 27, 2018 20:51:55 GMT
Ross (Herefordshire), Lonsdale (Lancs), St George (Tower Hamlets), St George (Westminster, admittedly Hanover Square was in the name at one point) and Howdenshire (East Riding) are all 1885 names that make you wonder where they are.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 27, 2018 22:19:20 GMT
Many thanks! Buckrose was named after a wapentake IIRC and was unchanged from the 1885 review. It is impossible to use that word without a smile. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 28, 2018 7:40:05 GMT
Ross (Herefordshire), Lonsdale (Lancs), St George (Tower Hamlets), St George (Westminster, admittedly Hanover Square was in the name at one point) and Howdenshire (East Riding) are all 1885 names that make you wonder where they are. Never heard of Ross-on-Wye? |
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Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2018 8:08:36 GMT
Ross (Herefordshire), Lonsdale (Lancs), St George (Tower Hamlets), St George (Westminster, admittedly Hanover Square was in the name at one point) and Howdenshire (East Riding) are all 1885 names that make you wonder where they are. Never heard of Ross-on-Wye? It could just have easily been Ross in Northumberland or Ross in Ross-shire. Admittedly Ross was something of a tourist hotspot at the time which may have led it to being better known than it is now. |
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