Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564 
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Post by Sharon on Aug 23, 2018 23:00:01 GMT
Before tonight I think the Tories held all the seats on E Herts council. Though Labour are fairly close in one Hertford ward There are 4 Indies, but this result means the Lib Dems have reappeared on the Council. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 23, 2018 23:00:30 GMT
WIRRAL Bromborough
Jo Bird (Labour) 1,253
Des Drury (Conservative) 749
Vicky Downie (Liberal Democrats) 454
Steve Niblock (Independent) 147
Susan Margaret Braddock (Green Party) 59
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564
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Post by Sharon on Aug 23, 2018 23:00:38 GMT
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564
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Post by Sharon on Aug 23, 2018 23:01:20 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 23, 2018 23:02:34 GMT
On the face of it the entire UKIP vote reverted to Labour? In fact I imagine a fair amount of churn in votes but an ominous sign for the Conservatives in an important marginal. Nearly all: CON: 52.2% (-0.7) LAB: 47.8% (+21.5) Conservative HOLD. No UKIP (-20.8) as prev. No Sharon. On the face of it all did plus a small swing direct from the Conservatives. But in fact the actual votes are often very different from the previous occasion with significant churn. Labour-leaning non-voters this time did turn out. Conservative-leaning voters this time not turning out. Many UKIP reverting to not voting at all. The crude analysis is often way, way out. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Aug 23, 2018 23:11:31 GMT
LD hold Bude.
Thank the maker.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Aug 23, 2018 23:17:43 GMT
Thanks. any detailed result yet? Percentages up on Britain elects. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 23, 2018 23:20:00 GMT
Thanks. any detailed result yet? Percentages up on Britain elects. Given as: |
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 23, 2018 23:20:58 GMT
Bude (Cornwall) result:
LDEM: 53.2% (+0.6)
IND: 25.0% (+25.0)
CON: 13.9% (-24.1)
LAB: 7.8% (-1.6)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 23, 2018 23:23:29 GMT
Before tonight I think the Tories held all the seats on E Herts council. Though Labour are fairly close in one Hertford ward There are 4 Indies, but this result means the Lib Dems have reappeared on the Council. Three of these "independents" in East Hertfordshire lost the Conservative whip they previously had, and one is actually a Conservative Party member who forgot to register the description when she was standing in the by-election for Thundridge ward.
Of the Hertford wards, only Sele is competitive for Labour and it still leans Conservative.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 23, 2018 23:43:50 GMT
All 3 results so far are good for Labour. I wonder if Raab's speech has had a bad effect on the Tory vote. It would be nice to think the average voter was paying attention to speeches by government ministers but I think it's unlikely, (unless you were being ironic). |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 24, 2018 0:11:34 GMT
I'm not being ironic at all. All day the radio news has been dominated by the issue of a no-deal Brexit following Raab's speech. I think a lot of people listen to at least news headlines on the radio if not necessarily more detailed covfefe. If it had been a less well-publicised speech then yes, it would have had very little if any effect. This one I'm not so sure. The mood music today has not been good for the Tories at all and apart from Bromborough every result tonight has seen a pretty sharp decline in their vote share - although they have only lost one seat (mind you, that's one more than I was expecting). Bude looks like a classic split vote though and maybe the underlying situation there is broadly stable for them. But they did very badly in 3 others and there's usually a reason for a pattern of generally bad results. Since that was the main news item while voters were going to the polls, it's perfectly plausible, in fact I'd say likely, that it did have an effect even though they were local elections - we know that voters in local elections (less so in Wales though) often vote primarily on non-local issues. Whilst not necessarily disagreeing it would be useful to know the Postal Vote/On The Day breakdown as if PVs are dominating the turnout then clearly Raab’s speech won’t have had much of an impact. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 24, 2018 1:41:56 GMT
There are 4 Indies, but this result means the Lib Dems have reappeared on the Council. Three of these "independents" in East Hertfordshire lost the Conservative whip they previously had, and one is actually a Conservative Party member who forgot to register the description when she was standing in the by-election for Thundridge ward.
Of the Hertford wards, only Sele is competitive for Labour and it still leans Conservative.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 24, 2018 2:10:14 GMT
Those changes are from 2016, since May they are: Lab -14.0 Con +6.0 Lib Dem +5.9 Ind +5.5 (only stood in '16, not this year) Green -3.5 Happy with our result, particularly getting over three times Niblock's vote. I think the relatively poor Labour result is down to Wirral council not being any great shakes. Exciting to have a by election in one's home village (though my bit of Bromborough is in Clatterbridge ward) particularly when it has the result out of step with the others this evening... |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 5:50:04 GMT
In Bude, East Hertfordshire and to a lesser extent, North Warwickshire, the Conservative candidates lived some way away from the ward, and their main opponents lived in the ward. That does matter in some wards, so I would be tempted to say that is the significant factor rather than anything else.
I was tempted to predict a Lib Dem gain in Hertfordshire on the basis of a local Lib Dem candidate and a Conservative candidate from some miles away, but the sheer weight of history of Conservative voting dissuaded me. It was certainly possible though.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 24, 2018 6:49:53 GMT
I was quite relieved to see the Lib Dem hold in Bude, given the last two results in that part of the world (Newquay and Torridge) had been Lib Dem losses, another Lib Dem loss on the Atlantic coast would have been hard to explain away as purely local circumstances, however true that might have been. I thought the (ex Tory)Indy might do quite well and I expect they took some of the protest vote element from our share, as well as taking a lot of Tory votes, so it was as well we still got more than the "two Tories" combined. All round a pretty good night for the Lib Dems.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 24, 2018 7:01:47 GMT
In Bude, East Hertfordshire and to a lesser extent, North Warwickshire, the Conservative candidates lived some way away from the ward, and their main opponents lived in the ward. That does matter in some wards, so I would be tempted to say that is the significant factor rather than anything else. I was tempted to predict a Lib Dem gain in Hertfordshire on the basis of a local Lib Dem candidate and a Conservative candidate from some miles away, but the sheer weight of history of Conservative voting dissuaded me. It was certainly possible though. When I looked into this for the preview I concluded that the Conservative candidate in North Warwickshire lived in the ward. |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 24, 2018 7:05:18 GMT
Raw votes for Bude:
LD 1010 Ind 475 C 264 Lab 148
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,623
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Post by andrewp on Aug 24, 2018 7:08:15 GMT
I was quite relieved to see the Lib Dem hold in Bude, given the last two results in that part of the world (Newquay and Torridge) had been Lib Dem losses, another Lib Dem loss on the Atlantic coast would have been hard to explain away as purely local circumstances, however true that might have been. I thought the (ex Tory)Indy might do quite well and I expect they took some of the protest vote element from our share, as well as taking a lot of Tory votes, so it was as well we still got more than the "two Tories" combined. All round a pretty good night for the Lib Dems. Yes, I expected you to win comfortably, given that there were ‘ two tories’, but as you say it’s a decent result to get more than the two combined. North Cornwall local election results have been better for the Lib Dem’s than other neighbouring constituencies and North Cornwall is certainly the second best Lib Dem parliamentary prospect in Cornwall. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 24, 2018 7:33:01 GMT
Cornwall, Bude - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2013 "top" | since 2013 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 1,010 | 53.2% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -22.2% | -21.3% | Independent * | 475 | 25.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 264 | 13.9% | -24.1% | -24.2% | -10.6% | -11.5% | Labour | 148 | 7.8% | -1.6% | -1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total Votes | 1,897 |
| 72% | 74% | 101% | 105% |
* Independent candidate was highest placed Conservative in 2017 Swing not meaningful Council now 47 Conservative, 36 Liberal Democrat, 31 Independent Group, 4 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow, 1 Independent East Hertfordshire, Watton-at-Stone - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | 2007 result | | Liberal Democrat | 531 | 67.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Conservative | 238 | 30.1% | -36.4% | -55.4% | unopposed | Labour | 23 | 2.9% | -8.3% | -11.7% |
| UKIP |
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| -14.7% |
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| Green |
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| -7.7% |
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| Total votes | 792 |
| 61% | 90% |
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Swing not meaningful Council now 45 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Knowsley, Halewood South - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 share | since 2018 | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Labour | 1,012 | 51.6% | +5.8% | -0.8% | -1.5% | Independent | 778 | 39.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 118 | 6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 54 | 2.8% | -4.2% | -5.7% | -6.1% | Elected Independent |
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| -47.3% | -21.8% | -23.0% | TUSC |
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| -17.3% | -15.1% | Total votes | 1,962 |
| 75% | 77% | 81% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 40 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent, 1 Green North Warwickshire, Newton Regis & Warton - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 451 | 52.2% | -0.7% | +2.2% | -12.5% | -13.9% | Labour | 413 | 47.8% | +21.5% | +20.1% | +12.5% | +13.9% | UKIP |
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| -20.8% | -22.3% |
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| Total votes | 864 |
| 42% | 45% | 67% | 70% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 11% / 9% since 2015 and ~ 12 ½% / 14% since 2011 Council now 22 Conservative, 13 Labour Rushcliffe, Gotham - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | | Conservative | 355 | 40.4% | -12.5% | Labour | 275 | 31.3% | +7.4% | Independent * | 160 | 18.2% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 63 | 7.2%1 | from nowhere | Green | 25 | 2.8% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -23.1% | Total votes | 878 |
| 56% |
*was the resigning Conservative Councillor Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Labour 10% since 2015 Council now 34 Conservative, 4 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 2 Independent Wirral, Bromborough - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,253 | 47.1% | -14.0% | -3.4% | -12.2% | -2.9% | Conservative | 749 | 28.1% | +6.0% | +15.8% | +9.7% | +14.4% | Liberal Democrat | 454 | 17.1% | +5.9% | +12.8% | +12.2% | +9.8% | Independent | 147 | 5.5% | from nowhere | -22.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 59 | 2.2% | -3.5% | -1.4% | -2.2% | -4.4% | UKIP |
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| -11.5% | -22.6% | TUSC |
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| -1.7% | -1.6% |
| Total votes | 2,662 |
| 80% | 74% | 35% | 78% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 10% since May and 11% since 2015, much less meaningful 9½% since 2016 and 8¾% since 2014 Council now 39 Labour, 21 Conservative, 5 Liberal democrat, 1 Green
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