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Post by markgoodair on Jul 20, 2018 12:22:31 GMT
Lab 44.6% +4.3% Lib Dem 30.0% +0.1% Con 15.1% -7.2% UKIP 5.9% -1.6% Green 4.4% +4.4% |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2018 12:25:13 GMT
Well most of the predictions got that one wrong! Excellent result for us  The results we had in this morning are very good for Milton Keynes and Northampton - areas with four marginal seats up for grabs. I'd agree with that; Labour here certainly think that Milton Keynes South would be a gain based on the Bletchley result. However some caution - Labour won a by-election in Bletchley and Fenny Stratford (predecessor to Bletchley East) in 2013, and reckoned they won MK South overall in the all-out elections in 2014. Then they were absolutely thumped in MK South in GE 2015 despite it being a priority target nationally, and they could hardly have done more. So the recent history is against them. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 20, 2018 12:43:16 GMT
The results we had in this morning are very good for Milton Keynes and Northampton - areas with four marginal seats up for grabs. I'd agree with that; Labour here certainly think that Milton Keynes South would be a gain based on the Bletchley result. However some caution - Labour won a by-election in Bletchley and Fenny Stratford (predecessor to Bletchley East) in 2013, and reckoned they won MK South overall in the all-out elections in 2014. Then they were absolutely thumped in MK South in GE 2015 despite it being a priority target nationally, and they could hardly have done more. So the recent history is against them. Any explanation for the very poor LD showing in Bletchely East? I appreciate that we weren't really in contention, but still ... |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,623
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2018 12:45:33 GMT
I'd agree with that; Labour here certainly think that Milton Keynes South would be a gain based on the Bletchley result. However some caution - Labour won a by-election in Bletchley and Fenny Stratford (predecessor to Bletchley East) in 2013, and reckoned they won MK South overall in the all-out elections in 2014. Then they were absolutely thumped in MK South in GE 2015 despite it being a priority target nationally, and they could hardly have done more. So the recent history is against them. Any explanation for the very poor LD showing in Bletchely East? I appreciate that we weren't really in contention, but still ... Campaign expenses £0.00 We stood a candidate but did nothing to campaign. We were the only ones not to put a leaflet out so no surprise we came last. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 20, 2018 12:47:25 GMT
Any explanation for the very poor LD showing in Bletchely East? I appreciate that we weren't really in contention, but still ... Campaign expenses £0.00 We stood a candidate but did nothing to campaign. We were the only ones not to put a leaflet out so no surprise we came last. Any reason for this? Happy to go to the LD room if you'd prefer not to go public. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2018 16:21:36 GMT
Quite a good result. So far Besses clearly Labour's worst result - although it's not a Jewish area I suspect that the anti-Semitism row may have played a part there. Though it could be purely local Bury council issues, or something to do with Ivan Lewis even. A very good result. Have the Tories ever got that close before? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 20, 2018 17:59:40 GMT
Quite a good result. So far Besses clearly Labour's worst result - although it's not a Jewish area I suspect that the anti-Semitism row may have played a part there. Though it could be purely local Bury council issues, or something to do with Ivan Lewis even. A very good result. Have the Tories ever got that close before? Yes once. Since the ward was named Besses in 1979, the closest result was Labour beating the Conservatives 1207-1019 in 1992. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 20, 2018 18:12:48 GMT
8% swing from Labour to Lib Dem!  (I'll get my coat, and my Focus delivery bag.) I'm already looking forward to the bar chart next time.  |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 22, 2018 8:00:55 GMT
UKIP standing in three out of the five English constituencies; potentially their best night for a year or two, it'll be interesting to see how they go. Just reviewing this: "pretty poorly" as it turned out. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 22, 2018 8:21:52 GMT
UKIP standing in three out of the five English constituencies; potentially their best night for a year or two, it'll be interesting to see how they go. Just reviewing this: "pretty poorly" as it turned out. yes- "best night for a year or two" might be pushing it a bit, even for UKIP. |
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Post by catking on Jul 22, 2018 17:08:58 GMT
The Besses result was interesting. I think my prediction of a comfortable Labour hold with them getting over 50% of the vote was correct. However, I was surprised by the strength of the Tory showing. I thought the Tory ceiling in this ward was reached in the by-election last year when they got 30% of the vote. Getting 36% was a big surprise and getting more votes than last year on much lower turnout is quite impressive.
As I said before, the level of Tory campaign activity surprised me and I have to admit that the Bury Tories, in the south of the borough at least, are the strongest I can remember them being.
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