Local Council By-elections 19th July

[middleenglander]

Jul 19, 2018 22:40:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Hesketh with Becconsall (West Lancashire) result:

CON: 41.2% (-18.5)
LAB: 34.9% (+4.0)
IND: 23.8% (+23.8)

Conservative HOLD.

No LDem (-9.3) as prev.

Labours share in the 5 previous elections (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 & 2018) ranged from 30.9% (2018) to 36.5% (2016) with all but 2018 being a straight Conservative/ Labour fight.

[middleenglander]

Milton Keynes is definitely counting tomorrow but the last Northamptonshire by-election in Higham Ferrers counted immediately after to poll, but that was East Northamptonshire district and not Northampton Borough.

[timmullen1]

Jul 19, 2018 23:21:22 GMT middleenglander said:

Milton Keynes is definitely counting tomorrow but the last Northamptonshire by-election in Higham Ferrers counted immediately after to poll, but that was East Northamptonshire district and not Northampton Borough.

Slightly ambiguous, but this could be read as counting Friday. Something in the back of my mind says they usually use the cricket ground to count in Northampton in which case it will have been unavailable as the Steelbacks entertained Derbyshire in the T20 Bash tonight (and lost).

[Sharon]

Jul 19, 2018 23:34:44 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jul 19, 2018 23:21:22 GMT middleenglander said:

Milton Keynes is definitely counting tomorrow but the last Northamptonshire by-election in Higham Ferrers counted immediately after to poll, but that was East Northamptonshire district and not Northampton Borough.

Slightly ambiguous, but this could be read as counting Friday.

Or could be read that it's counting tonight, and democratic services will post the result when they open in the morning.

[timmullen1]

Jul 19, 2018 23:38:39 GMT Sharon said:

Jul 19, 2018 23:34:44 GMT timmullen1 said:

Slightly ambiguous, but this could be read as counting Friday.

Or could be read that it's counting tonight, and democratic services will post the result when they open in the morning.

Yes, I agree, hence the “slightly ambiguous”, but if they were Tweeting at 10pm it might not have been too difficult to keep somebody with the Twitter password around to Tweet the result tonight, even if they weren’t at the count.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 19, 2018 22:22:51 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Raw figures:

OXFORD Headington

GARDEN, Stef (Liberal Democrat) 949
OTTINO, Simon John Peter (Labour) 419
GIBBS, Georgina Ruth (Conservative) 124
HITCHINS, Ray (Green) 67

PS Tony Otim Oxford is not a unitary council.

Thanks. I copied the mistake from middleenglander 's thread without spotting the error.

[ricmk]

Hearing very unofficially that Labour think they have held Bletchley East

EDIT: The Conservatives have publically conceded.

[andrewp]

Bletchley East

Lab 1355
Con 1026
Green 131
Ukip 101
LD 50

[ricmk]

[The Bishop]

Jul 20, 2018 9:41:40 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Quite a good result. So far Besses clearly Labour's worst result - although it's not a Jewish area I suspect that the anti-Semitism row may have played a part there. Though it could be purely local Bury council issues, or something to do with Ivan Lewis even.

Labour's share is actually up slightly since last year's byelection there - instead it looks like a straight LibDem to Tory swing from then.

Arguably the result in Carmarthenshire was worse.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 20, 2018 10:02:38 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 20, 2018 9:41:40 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Quite a good result. So far Besses clearly Labour's worst result - although it's not a Jewish area I suspect that the anti-Semitism row may have played a part there. Though it could be purely local Bury council issues, or something to do with Ivan Lewis even.

Labour's share is actually up slightly since last year's byelection there - instead it looks like a straight LibDem to Tory swing from then.

Arguably the result in Carmarthenshire was worse.

Although probably less to do with the wider picture.

[The Bishop]

Plaid do actually seem to have quite a good record in local byelections when they take them seriously.

[ricmk]

[The Bishop]

Well most of the predictions got that one wrong!

Excellent result for us

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 19, 2018 22:15:46 GMT middleenglander said:

Jul 19, 2018 22:04:44 GMT robbienicoll said:

Saron, Carmarthenshire

Plaid - 747
Labour - 239
Con - 146
Lib Dem - 14

Plaid hold

Plaid Cymru 65.2% - +15.7% (top) / +14.5% (average) since 2017
Labour 20.9% - -15.0% / -14.1%
Conservative 12.7% - -2.0% / -1.6%
Liberal Democrat 1.2% - from nowhere

8% swing from Labour to Lib Dem!


(I'll get my coat, and my Focus delivery bag.)

[froome]

Jul 20, 2018 11:04:04 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jul 19, 2018 22:15:46 GMT middleenglander said:

Plaid Cymru 65.2% - +15.7% (top) / +14.5% (average) since 2017
Labour 20.9% - -15.0% / -14.1%
Conservative 12.7% - -2.0% / -1.6%
Liberal Democrat 1.2% - from nowhere

8% swing from Labour to Lib Dem!


(I'll get my coat, and my Focus delivery bag.)

I'm already looking forward to the bar chart next time.

[andrewp]

6 holds out of 6 this week.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Jul 20, 2018 10:38:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Well most of the predictions got that one wrong!

Excellent result for us

The results we had in this morning are very good for Milton Keynes and Northampton - areas with four marginal seats up for grabs.

[andrewp]

Jul 20, 2018 10:20:16 GMT The Bishop said:

Plaid do actually seem to have quite a good record in local byelections when they take them seriously.

The Plaid candidate was the deceased councilors widow, which usually is a fabourable factor.

[The Bishop]

Jul 20, 2018 11:29:46 GMT andrewp said:

Jul 20, 2018 10:20:16 GMT The Bishop said:

Plaid do actually seem to have quite a good record in local byelections when they take them seriously.

The Plaid candidate was the deceased councilors widow, which usually is a fabourable factor.

Though there have been a few times when that gambit didn't work.