clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 20, 2023 20:48:51 GMT
Here’s one that’s a bit different from the Con 20, Green 13 Low tory outlier followed by a high tory outlier from deltapoll which happens. That conservative 20, green 13 poll is absolutely ridiculous. The greens will probably not make 3 never mind 13. Theres outliers and then there's simple polling error. As I pointed out on the other thread, I think the high Green figure is partially sampling variation, partially a high level of undecided voters (who will mostly go to other parties) and partially the upcoming local elections (which gives increased relevance to smaller parties which will dissipate come a general election campaign).
When including those who didn't give a voting intention but said they'd vote (around 25% of the sample), the Greens were on 8% in the poll (up from 6% in the previous poll). If the true figure is ~6% at the moment, including undecided voters, then anywhere between 4%-8% is reasonable with normal variation - which could show up as 5%-13% in the headline figures, when excluding undecided voters (a giant range, which is why individual polling results shouldn't have too much weight placed on them; trends and sustained results are more important).
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 21, 2023 9:28:50 GMT
Here’s one that’s a bit different from the Con 20, Green 13 The average of the previous 10 polls puts Con on 26.2%. The rolling average for the past 5 months has Con on 26% (+/- 1%). 35% is an obvious outlier, even more so than People Polling's 20%. The problem with them finding 9% more Tories than the average is that the other parties' numbers will be low by a sum of 9%. It's probably wise to ignore the whole poll.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2023 9:35:12 GMT
I don't think anyone even amongst the most ardent supporters of the Conservative Party really believes they're enjoying 35% of the vote at the moment. 26 may be a little low perhaps, but 35 is obviously much too high, unless of course it starts getting corroborated by a bunch of other polls. Normally if there's a dramatic shift in a poll with no obvious cause, it's going to be pretty unlikely to be correct.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 21, 2023 10:25:13 GMT
I don't think anyone even amongst the most ardent supporters of the Conservative Party really believes they're enjoying 35% of the vote at the moment. 26 may be a little low perhaps, but 35 is obviously much too high, unless of course it starts getting corroborated by a bunch of other polls. Normally if there's a dramatic shift in a poll with no obvious cause, it's going to be pretty unlikely to be correct. Agreed. I think a few weeks ago I said I thought the position was about 47-27. I think the Conservatives have probably edged up another point or two since then. If I had to guess at the moment I would say about 46-28/29
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 21, 2023 11:52:18 GMT
Tories have maybe got a slight boost from "boats and Budget", I agree. But its only small, and no guarantee of future improvement.
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pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,565
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Post by pl on Mar 21, 2023 11:55:58 GMT
Tories have maybe got a slight boost from "boats and Budget", I agree. But its only small, and no guarantee of future improvement. And probably from the millions of local election leaflets now being pumped out all across the Conservative shires. It's probably firming up the "Don't Knows". Ditto the Green share in some polls.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 21, 2023 12:02:10 GMT
No way that the Greens are on 13%, though. And where are the LibDems in all this?
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 21, 2023 12:04:43 GMT
I've noticed almost all the Tories I've talked to are 50/50 but last weekend it was kind of leaning back toward them. The real proof in the pudding will be if all the contact we've made since October has made a difference when people are 50/50
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Mar 21, 2023 13:58:21 GMT
No way that the Greens are on 13%, though. And where are the LibDems in all this? I've noticed more Green activity "on the ground" in the home counties than ever before. In a lot of cases they seem to have acquired people who would previously have been prime LD candidates. Problem for the LDs is that the Green Party have an easily understandable brand name, close association with a policy area and are untainted by real governance. I'm not sure even I can name a single LD policy at the moment, and their leader has low name recognition. Of course, the "Green Leader" Caroline Lucas has much higher name recognition amongst voters! :-)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,337
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 21, 2023 14:04:06 GMT
No way that the Greens are on 13%, though. And where are the LibDems in all this? I don't think anyone is really claiming we are, are they? And the Lib Dems are all obviously speaking to a different pollster who will doubtless have a poll out soon with them on 15%
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2023 15:47:24 GMT
Tories have maybe got a slight boost from "boats and Budget", I agree. But its only small, and no guarantee of future improvement. Nothing's a guarantee in polling terms, but the governing party of whichever colour closing the polling gap from midterm doldrums is pretty close to guaranteed. It's probably too early for this to happen, particularly on the same day as a poll is published with a 25% Labour lead.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2023 16:10:48 GMT
That's true, but it's also important that we acknowledge that, while this level of mid-term deficit was once relatively common, it's been at least a decade & a half since it's been at anything like this level, and it hasn't happened to a Conservative government for a generation. Moreover, polling methodology has changed a great deal since the mid-1990s, when the "shy Tory" factor was much less factored in than it is today.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 16,929
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2023 16:24:26 GMT
That's true, but it's also important that we acknowledge that, while this level of mid-term deficit was once relatively common, it's been at least a decade & a half since it's been at anything like this level, and it hasn't happened to a Conservative government for a generation. Moreover, polling methodology has changed a great deal since the mid-1990s, when the "shy Tory" factor was much less factored in than it is today. You don't need to take any bullishness out of me. This looks like a rogue poll. However if other polls do show a closing of the gap then that could save a couple of hundred Tory councillors even if it's still the long hallowed mid term massacre that these elections have become.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2023 16:37:21 GMT
Of course, outliers become less so, or cease being outliers altogether, if they're backed up by other polls. Single polls tell us almost nothing, a group of polls tells us much more.
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Post by robert1 on Mar 23, 2023 14:09:19 GMT
There is something odd going on with the wikipedia page of UK polls.
Yet again the results of a poll have been deleted from the chart. In this case the Deltapoll dot at 35% in blue has gone missing. As a result of which the trend line has changed.
I believe this is not the first time this has happened recently. I could try and follow activity on the site but have opted, for better us of time, not to do so.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 23, 2023 14:10:43 GMT
There is something odd going on with the wikipedia page of UK polls. Yet again the results of a poll have been deleted from the chart. In this case the Deltapoll dot at 35% in blue has gone missing. As a result of which the trend line has changed. I believe this is not the first time this has happened recently. I could try and follow activity on the site but have opted, for better us of time, not to do so. Yeah its obviously a conspiracy. Get someone to go on GB News and rant about it for an hour, that'll probably work.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 16,929
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Post by right on Mar 23, 2023 15:12:30 GMT
There is something odd going on with the wikipedia page of UK polls. Yet again the results of a poll have been deleted from the chart. In this case the Deltapoll dot at 35% in blue has gone missing. As a result of which the trend line has changed. I believe this is not the first time this has happened recently. I could try and follow activity on the site but have opted, for better us of time, not to do so. Yeah its obviously a conspiracy. Get someone to go on GB News and rant about it for an hour, that'll probably work. No one would edit Wikipedia for political gain
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 23, 2023 15:23:21 GMT
I certainly have!
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 23, 2023 15:36:58 GMT
No one would edit Wikipedia for political gain At least not under their real name.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 16,929
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Post by right on Mar 23, 2023 16:04:25 GMT
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