Prediction Competition - July 2018

[olympian95]

Bury: Lab 60,Con 24, UKIP 7, LD 5, Green 4
Carmarthenshire: Plaid 42, Lab 40, Con 12, LD 6
Milton Keynes: Lab 45, Con 41, Green 7, LD 4 ,UKIP 3
Northants: Con LD 38, Lab 36, Con 19, UKIP 5, Green 2
Oxford, Headington: LD 51, Lab 39, Con 6, Green 4
West Lancs: Con 36, Lab 33, Ind 31

[Deleted]

Bury: Lab 60,Con 25, UKIP 10, LD 5, Green 1
Carmarthenshire: Plaid 45, Lab 39, Con 10, LD 5
Milton Keynes: Lab 45, Con 40, Green 10, LD 3 ,UKIP 1
Northants: LD 40, Lab 35, Con 20, UKIP 5, Green 1
Oxford, Headington: LD 50, Lab 40, Con 5, Green 5
West Lancs: Con 35, Lab 34, Ind 31

[hempie]

Bury, Besses: Lab 55, Con 24, Green 7, LD 6, ED 5, UKIP 3
Carmarthenshire,Saron: PC 45, Lab 37, Con 14, LD 4
Milton Keynes, Bletchley East: Lab 46, Con 32,LD 14, Green 5, UKIP 3
Northamptonshire,St Georges: Lab 35, LD 34, Con 23, Green 5,UKIP 3
Oxford, Headington: LD 54, Lab 30, Green 9, Con 7
West Lancashire, Hesketh with Beccansall: Con 44, Ind 31, Lab 25

[ricmk]

Hi everyone, good luck later.

Bletchley East will be a straight Lab:Con battle. They've both put plenty into it.  Labour have had to keep quiet about why the ex-councillor has resigned just after the election, but knew it was coming so worked the ward hard before the announcement.  The planned closure of the registrars centre (wedding venue) in the ward has had to be reversed due to the by-election, both parties claiming credit.   Lab won by 200 odd in May, but the ward wasn't worked hard by anyone, with the marginal Bletchley Park being the battleground next door.  It's a naturally Kippy area, May's Tories will get more of a hearing than Cameron's did, and the Labour candidate is noticeably wet - not a good fit for the ward.  While the Tories probably have the better candidate having seen the leaflets I think theirs are pretty desperate, they don't have the track record in the ward that Labour do, and I think Labour should be able to hang on comfortably.  Lib Dems  haven't done a leaflet and Greens / UKIP have.  I fancy UKIP to come 3rd - a natural ward for them. The Green message of 'let's reduce car use' is toxic in MK - you wouldn't be able to guess their target ward in May from the results.

Lib Dems hopeful in Nothampton but it won't be easy - I think they may find it tougher than some of the predictions here.




 

[yellowperil]

Jul 19, 2018 8:51:04 GMT ricmk said:

Hi everyone, good luck later.

Bletchley East will be a straight Lab:Con battle. They've both put plenty into it.  Labour have had to keep quiet about why the ex-councillor has resigned just after the election, but knew it was coming so worked the ward hard before the announcement.  The planned closure of the registrars centre (wedding venue) in the ward has had to be reversed due to the by-election, both parties claiming credit.   Lab won by 200 odd in May, but the ward wasn't worked hard by anyone, with the marginal Bletchley Park being the battleground next door.  It's a naturally Kippy area, May's Tories will get more of a hearing than Cameron's did, and the Labour candidate is noticeably wet - not a good fit for the ward.  While the Tories probably have the better candidate having seen the leaflets I think theirs are pretty desperate, they don't have the track record in the ward that Labour do, and I think Labour should be able to hang on comfortably.  Lib Dems  haven't done a leaflet and Greens / UKIP have.  I fancy UKIP to come 3rd - a natural ward for them. The Green message of 'let's reduce car use' is toxic in MK - you wouldn't be able to guess their target ward in May from the results.

Lib Dems hopeful in Nothampton but it won't be easy - I think they may find it tougher than some of the predictions here.

thanks for the timing,ricmk-yesterday would have been nice

[andrewp]

On paper, and looking at the predictions, as many as 4 out of tonight’s 6 ‘ could’ be quite tight.

[syorkssocialist]

Apologies but I've been too busy to get any predictions in these last two weeks - expect to see me again next month!

[ricmk]

Jul 19, 2018 10:11:35 GMT yellowperil said:

Jul 19, 2018 8:51:04 GMT ricmk said:

Hi everyone, good luck later.

Bletchley East will be a straight Lab:Con battle. They've both put plenty into it.  Labour have had to keep quiet about why the ex-councillor has resigned just after the election, but knew it was coming so worked the ward hard before the announcement.  The planned closure of the registrars centre (wedding venue) in the ward has had to be reversed due to the by-election, both parties claiming credit.   Lab won by 200 odd in May, but the ward wasn't worked hard by anyone, with the marginal Bletchley Park being the battleground next door.  It's a naturally Kippy area, May's Tories will get more of a hearing than Cameron's did, and the Labour candidate is noticeably wet - not a good fit for the ward.  While the Tories probably have the better candidate having seen the leaflets I think theirs are pretty desperate, they don't have the track record in the ward that Labour do, and I think Labour should be able to hang on comfortably.  Lib Dems  haven't done a leaflet and Greens / UKIP have.  I fancy UKIP to come 3rd - a natural ward for them. The Green message of 'let's reduce car use' is toxic in MK - you wouldn't be able to guess their target ward in May from the results.

Lib Dems hopeful in Nothampton but it won't be easy - I think they may find it tougher than some of the predictions here.

thanks for the timing,ricmk -yesterday would have been nice

i did wonder if anyone would PM for a tip

[yellowperil]

I wouldn't try to take an advantage over my fellow competitors, but had the local insights been available to all,it would then be up to each of us to weigh up the value of that,and come to our various conclusions. We have similarly to weigh up what the implications of what we see from Andrew's previews, which is often invaluable, and sometimes downright misleading in terms of forecasting a result.

[robbienicoll]

7 entries this week, missing greenrobinhood and europeanlefty with syorkssocialist promising a return next month. Priceofdawn gets 4 faults for adding to 101% in Bury and Northamptonshire and 99% in Carmarthenshire and Milton Keynes.

Besses, Bury: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 30% (yellowperil) to 41% (andrewp)
Saron, Carmarthenshire: 6 Plaid Cymru hold, with yellowperil Labour gain
Bletchley East, Milton Keynes: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (olympian95) to 20% (Right Leaning)
St George, Northamptonshire: 6 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with hempie Labour hold
Headington, Oxford: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (priceofdawn) to 36% (robertwaller)
Hesketh with Beccansall, West Lancashire: 4 Independent gain from Conservative with olympian95, hempie and priceofdawn Conservative hold

Spreadsheet is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnkPBGcQssOFCk4egr3slHf4-gzcjCpbyiZSUS-uQrE/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
 

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Hempie on winning the week!
Still all to play for next week.

[hempie]

Thank you Robert - but we all know who will win for the month!

[yellowperil]

Plus of course congratulations to Robert for the overall lead.

Had a poorish week myself apart from Bury Besses (I badly underrated Plaid in Carmarthen, Labour in Northampton, and the Con in West Lancs- you can get over one really bad call out of 6,but 3 is carelessness)and though there is indeed more to play for next week I guess that will probably be among the present top 4.

[andrewp]

Jul 20, 2018 13:57:10 GMT yellowperil said:

Plus of course congratulations to Robert for the overall lead.

Had a poorish week myself apart from Bury Besses (I badly underrated Plaid in Carmarthen, Labour in Northampton, and the Con in West Lancs- you can get over one really bad call out of 6,but 3 is carelessness)and though there is indeed more to play for next week I guess that will probably be among the present top 4.

I think you are well in contention being only 40 behind with 7 contests next week. I fancied the Independent to win in West Lancs and also underestimated Labour in Northampton. I must say that I find picking which seats the Lib Dems will win or do less well generally more difficult to predict

[robbienicoll]

Besses, Bury: yellowperil wins this contest with 22.5, just pipping hempie (24.5) and Right Leaning (25.8)
Saron, Carmarthenshire: Highest scoring overall contest of the week, robertwaller finishing first with 35.8, followed by andrewp on 37.8 and hempie with 40.4
Bletchley East, Milton Keynes: robertwaller's second individual win with 7.4, followed by andrewp with 11.6 and olympian95 with with 13.4
St George, Northamptonshire: hempie wins here with 25.0, followed by robertwaller and andrewp in joint second on 31.8 and Right Leaning on 33.2
Headington, Oxford: Lowest scoring contest of the week, won by andrewp with 5.5, with robertwaller in second on 8.5 and Right Leaning on 10.3
Hesketh with Beccansall, West Lancashire: olympian95 and priceofdawn share first place with 14.3 apiece, with hempie (19.8) and yellowperil (34.8) rounding off the podium

For the week this has hempie in first on 149.7, followed by robertwaller with 161.3 and olympian95 with 165.4.
For the month robertwaller is in his natural place as the frontrunner with 621.4, with andrewp in second on 632.7 and hempie in third on 647.7. As noted, with 7 contests next week all still to play for!

[Robert Waller]

MERTHYR TYDFIL UA, Gurnos

DAVIES, Jeremy Islwyn Trevor (Independent) 46%
ELLIS, Laurel Elizabeth (Conservative) 4
HOOPER, Allyn Lee (Labour) 45
SINGH, Dillan (Independent) 5


NEW FOREST DC, Fawley, Blackfield & Langley

FLETCHER, Craig (Liberal Democrats) 38
LANGDALE, Merv (Conservative) 62

NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA; Freshney

EMMERSON, Loyd Layton (Green) 3
FISHER, Barry Charles (UKIP) 7
HOLLAND, Steve (Conservative) 39
KIFF, Mick (Independent) 10
MILL, Sheldon James (Labour) 41

PLYMOUTH UA; Stoke

CLARKE, Connor (Liberal Democrats) 10
LAING, Jemima Mary (Labour) 53
POPESCU, Iuliu (Active for Plymouth) 3
WATKINS, Kathy (Conservative) 34

THANET DC; Birchington South

LLOYD-BOWYER, Hannah Maryann (Liberal Deomcrats) 20
WHITEHEAD, Helen Elizabeth (Labour) 25
WRIGHT, Linda Ann (Conservative) 55

TORRIDGE DC; Hartland & Bradworthy

BROUGHTON, Richard Frederick (Conservative) 25
HILL, Martin William (Liberal Democrat) 37
SANDERS, John Edward (Green) 38

WEST LANCASHIRE BC; Knowsley

DOWLING, Gareth (Labour) 51
MITCHELL, Kate (Our West Lancashire) 15
VERNON, Jeffrey (Conservative) 34

[yellowperil]

Merthyr Tydfil, Gurnos: Con 7, Lab 40, Ind Davies 43, Ind Singh 10
New Forest, Fawley, Blackfield & Langley: Con 75, LD 25
NE Lincs, Freshney: Con 40, Lab 43, Green3, UKIP 9, Ind 5
Plymouth, Sutton: Con 30, Lab 56, LD 9, AFP 5
Thanet, Birchington: Con 60, Lab 22,LD 18
Torridge, Hartland& Bradworthy: Con 24, LD 36, Green 40
West Lancs, Knowsley: Con 30, Lab 54,OWL 16

[Deleted]

Gurnos (Merthyr Tydfil): Lab 34 Ind (Davies) 33 Ind (Singh) 15 Con 8
Fawley, Blackfield & Langley (New Forest): Con 65 LD 35
Freshney (North East Lincolnshire): Lab 40 Con 35 Ind 13 UKIP 7 Grn 5
Stoke (Plymouth): Lab 50 Con 37 LD 10 AFP 3
Birchington (Thanet): Con 60 Lab 25 LD 15
Hartland & Bradworthy (Torridge): Grn 40 LD 35 Con 25
Knowsley (West Lancashire): Lab 55 Con 30 OWL 15

[andrewp]

Merthyr Tydfil, Gurnos Lab 46, Ind Davies 43, Ind Singh 7, Con 4
New Forest, Fawley, Blackfield and Langley Con 68, Lib Dem 32
NE lincs, Freshney Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 15, Green 4, Ind Kiff 4
Plymouth, Stoke Lab 58, Con 30, Lib Dem 8 AFP 4
Thanet, Birchington, Con 63, Lab 21, Lib Dem 16
Torridge, Hartland and Bradworthy, Lib Den 36, Green 35, Con 29
West Lancashire, Knowsley Lab 52, Con 30, Owl 18

[Right Leaning]

Gurnos (Merthyr Tydfil): Lab 42, Ind (Davies) 35, Ind (Singh) 13, C 10
Fawley, Blackfield & Langley (New Forest): C 60 LD 40
Freshney (North East Lincolnshire): Lab 41 C 33 Ind 13 UKIP 9 Gn 4
Stoke (Plymouth): Lab 52 C 32 LD 10 AFP 6
Birchington (Thanet): C 55 Lab 33 LD 12
Hartland & Bradworthy (Torridge): LD 40, Gn 33, C 27
Knowsley (West Lancashire): Lab 58, C 31, OWL 11,