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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 17:20:41 GMT
Seems we should watch Teltow -Flaming III for a possible eruption of a FW Direktmandat for a popular former SPD member. You'll have to elaborate there please! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 17:21:35 GMT
Here we go with the 18:00 Prognosen from ZDF Brandenburg: SPD 32,5; CDU 23; SED 19,5; AfD 12; GRÜ 5,5 - FDP Raus. Turnout 50% down 17% ! Thüringen: CDU 34; SED 28; SPD 12,5; AfD 10; GRÜ 5,5 - FDP Raus Turnout 53% down 3.2% I wonder if the lower turnout saved the Greens' bacon- they look like they were hovering on the verge of being kicked out. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 17:21:52 GMT
Seems we should watch Teltow -Flaming III for a possible eruption of a FW Direktmandat for a popular former SPD member. Doesn't look like it is happening, a respectable third looks likely. Greens might be feeling a bit squeaky-bum in both Länder, they look like they might go down to 5,1-5,2 in both. However, the better areas for them haven't started declaring yet. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 17:24:21 GMT
Seems we should watch Teltow -Flaming III for a possible eruption of a FW Direktmandat for a popular former SPD member. You'll have to elaborate there please! The Landtag SPD Direktmandat holder left for the Freie Wahler last year, some polling showed he was doing nicely (25%) and had a chance at the seat. First few boxes seemed to indicate this but he's dropped to a respectable third. Remember, 25-28% is perfectly good for a direct mandate in much of the old East. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 17:31:55 GMT
To excite Devonian - AfD currently look like they might come second on the first vote in Frankfurt (Oder) and seem to have 21.5% on the second vote. Frankfurt (O) is a dreadful place really, only beaten by Eisenhüttenstadt (neé Stalinstadt) as place most affected by the reunification.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 17:40:28 GMT
Seems we should watch Teltow -Flaming III for a possible eruption of a FW Direktmandat for a popular former SPD member. Doesn't look like it is happening, a respectable third looks likely. Greens might be feeling a bit squeaky-bum in both Länder, they look like they might go down to 5,1-5,2 in both. However, the better areas for them haven't started declaring yet. I spoke to soon, Herr Schulze has just moved back into the lead in Teltow -Flaming III.  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 18:39:24 GMT
You'll have to elaborate there please! The Landtag SPD Direktmandat holder left for the Freie Wahler last year, some polling showed he was doing nicely (25%) and had a chance at the seat. First few boxes seemed to indicate this but he's dropped to a respectable third. Remember, 25-28% is perfectly good for a direct mandate in much of the old East. That's very interesting- outside of Bavaria, have any FW candidates grabbed a Direktmandat? Indeed, did they ever manage it there? Update: RBB now reporting that this is the first win of a direct mandate by a small party in a Landtag since the Fifties. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 14, 2014 18:42:52 GMT
At what point do we start to consider that the FDP are facing an existential crisis?
They now have no representation in the Bundestag and are only represented in 6 Lander by just 64 representatives and are not involved in governing any of them. They must also be in danger of being wiped out in Hamburg next February.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 18:47:37 GMT
At what point do we start to consider that the FDP are facing an existential crisis? They now have no representation in the Bundestag and are only represented in 6 Lander by just 64 representatives and are not involved in governing any of them. They must also be in danger of being wiped out in Hamburg next February. I think you're right, Hamburg will be devastating for them- it's never been a great place for the FDP. I sense they won't be killed off entirely. Grand coalitions across Germany will provide them with something to have a crack at, but it depends on how badly their vote has leached to AfD (and, to a smaller degree, the Greens). |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 18:50:19 GMT
At what point do we start to consider that the FDP are facing an existential crisis? They now have no representation in the Bundestag and are only represented in 6 Lander by just 64 representatives and are not involved in governing any of them. They must also be in danger of being wiped out in Hamburg next February. I think most of Germany has been considering it for around 3 years, it's just they don't want to talk about it. The FDP is probably history, it is as simple as that. The most interesting and important question in German politics isn't the demise of the FDP or the rise of the AfD, it is simply "nach Mutti" - what happens after Merkel. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 18:57:08 GMT
The Landtag SPD Direktmandat holder left for the Freie Wahler last year, some polling showed he was doing nicely (25%) and had a chance at the seat. First few boxes seemed to indicate this but he's dropped to a respectable third. Remember, 25-28% is perfectly good for a direct mandate in much of the old East. That's very interesting- outside of Bavaria, have any FW candidates grabbed a Direktmandat? Indeed, did they ever manage it there? Update: RBB now reporting that this is the first win of a direct mandate by a small party in a Landtag since the Fifties. I don't think they have ever managed a Direkt in Bayern, the Bayernpartei did back in the 50's. According to ZDF, Brandenburg has an electoral law that means that he gets to bring a list member with him. The current predictions (and there are very few votes left to count) are Brandenburg: SPD 30, CDU 21, SED 18, AfD 11, GRÜ 6, FW/BVB 2 Thüringen: CDU 33, SED 27, SPD 12, AfD 10, GRÜ 6 I would suggest that Brandenburg remains Red-Red, but Thüringen goes Groß |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 14, 2014 19:09:36 GMT
At what point do we start to consider that the FDP are facing an existential crisis? They now have no representation in the Bundestag and are only represented in 6 Lander by just 64 representatives and are not involved in governing any of them. They must also be in danger of being wiped out in Hamburg next February. I think most of Germany has been considering it for around 3 years, it's just they don't want to talk about it. The FDP is probably history, it is as simple as that. The most interesting and important question in German politics isn't the demise of the FDP or the rise of the AfD, it is simply "nach Mutti" - what happens after Merkel. Well yes but those points are all interlinked to some degree. If the FDP is finished outside of a handful of states (hard to see them disappearing in Lower Saxony and NRW) who will the CDU look to as their natural allies and potential coalition partners? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 14, 2014 19:24:03 GMT
The current predictions (and there are very few votes left to count) are Brandenburg: SED 18 Thüringen: SED 27 Not yet given up that childish behaviour then. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2014 19:27:52 GMT
He is treating the farleft with the respect they deserve.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 22:19:52 GMT
RBB report that there will be three Freie Waehler elected, as the 5% hurdle ceases to exist if you win one direct mandate. Oder-Spree II had the highest AfD share, with an incredible 21.3%, followed closely by Frankfurt-an-der-Oder. FDP down to 1.5%. That's seemingly lower than the NPD. I can't link the analysis properly, but it suggests that their vote melted away into non-voters, followed by AfD transfers. I'm beginning to think that Richard Allen is right, and this looks terminal. Even in the reasonably non-FDP East, that is a dreadful score. It looks like the SPD unseated a Linke minister by two votes in Barnim II. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 14, 2014 22:35:38 GMT
At what point do we start to consider that the FDP are facing an existential crisis? They now have no representation in the Bundestag and are only represented in 6 Lander by just 64 representatives and are not involved in governing any of them. They must also be in danger of being wiped out in Hamburg next February. I think most of Germany has been considering it for around 3 years, it's just they don't want to talk about it. The FDP is probably history, it is as simple as that. The most interesting and important question in German politics isn't the demise of the FDP or the rise of the AfD, it is simply "nach Mutti" - what happens after Merkel. Is there any prospect of a Liberal party coming out of their ashes, especially post Merkel? Or will those centrist liberal voters continue to moderate the SDP, Greens and the CDU by not having a specific party to vote for? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 14, 2014 23:48:12 GMT
The most interesting and important question in German politics isn't the demise of the FDP or the rise of the AfD, it is simply "nach Mutti" - what happens after Merkel. I have to say that I have taken great pleasure in the success of the AfD. It is another indication that people have had enough of the EU. The Germans may be a tad behind us but I am optimistic that we are all finally heading in the right direction. Bearing in mind they are pro-EU membership (though avowedly anti-Euro) that doesn't exactly follow. They're not exactly a German UKIP but looking at their policies they would largely appear to be an analogue of the UK Tories (who as we know when it comes down to it, are a pro-EU party, even if a lot of the membership wish it wasn't). |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 14, 2014 23:54:34 GMT
The death of the FDP is something to be celebrated. Even by political liberals. You don't want to be associated with people like that. I took a similar line with PASOK.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2014 23:59:31 GMT
The death of the FDP is something to be celebrated. Even by political liberals. You don't want to be associated with people like that. I took a similar line with PASOK. You prefer the nutters in syriza? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 15, 2014 0:10:10 GMT
Can't say I much like them. But PASOK is/was essentially a criminal conspiracy.
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