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Post by hiberno on Jun 13, 2024 19:48:39 GMT
Billy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil) re-elected in Ireland South Kelly (FG) 122,777 Kelleher (FF) 120,005 Quota: 114,761 ___ McNamara (IND): 86,757 Funchion (SF): 82,315 Wallace (I4C): 73,714 Ní Mhurchú (FF): 72,523 O'Sullivan (GP): 68,441 Now redistributing Kelleher's surplus. Then O'Sullivan will be eliminated. And then Mhurcchu will pass Wallace (if she had not done yet through Kelleher's surplus) Anyway it looks like 1 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF and McNamara. McNamara was Labour until 2017. McNamara is former Labour, but he run on a pretty anti-immigration and pro-decentralisation platform. He was also a public double NO voter in the referendum. So I wouldn’t be so sure that he’s going to sit with S&D. Mc Namara is also the son in law of former Irish President and stateman Dr. Patrick Hillery. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 13, 2024 19:51:08 GMT
Flanagan 110,533 Carberry (FG) 86,865 Walsh (FG) 86,401 Cowen (FF) 85,592 Gildernew (SF) 74,795 Mullooly 73,101 Chambers (FF) 60,537 Toibin (AON) 56,633 ELIMINATED Toibin’s transfers should be Mullooly friendly, so he’s probably ok. Mullooly is now leading by 4K over SF, with only FF (Lisa Chambers) transfers remaining. |
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Post by aidanthomson on Jun 13, 2024 20:13:15 GMT
Toibin’s transfers should be Mullooly friendly, so he’s probably ok. Mullooly is now leading by 4K over SF, with only FF (Lisa Chambers) transfers remaining. There's also, potentially, Flanagan's surplus, or anyone else's surplus if Chambers' transfers push them over quota (though the latter obviously would be Chambers' transfers indirectly). |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 13, 2024 20:16:19 GMT
Mullooly is now leading by 4K over SF, with only FF (Lisa Chambers) transfers remaining. There's also, potentially, Flanagan's surplus, or anyone else's surplus if Chambers' transfers push them over quota. All of the other candidates need more than 20K worth of transfers from Chambers for them to be in surplus territory. Flanagan has a 5K surplus. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,780
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Post by andrea on Jun 13, 2024 21:07:50 GMT
South finished the counting
McNamara (IND): 92,871 ELECTED
Ní Mhurchú (FF): 92,502 ELECTED
Funchion (SF): 90,070 ELECTED
Wallace (I4C): 84,157 ELIMINATED
In the end
2 FF
1 FG
1 Ind
1 SF
I4C, Green and FG losses
1 FF, SF and Ind gains
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,780
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Post by andrea on Jun 13, 2024 21:47:08 GMT
Everybody raised up
Hurrah. They can go to sleep
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Post by aidanthomson on Jun 13, 2024 22:19:55 GMT
There's also, potentially, Flanagan's surplus, or anyone else's surplus if Chambers' transfers push them over quota. All of the other candidates need more than 20K worth of transfers from Chambers for them to be in surplus territory. Flanagan has a 5K surplus. If Chambers' vote went predominantly to her FF colleague Cowen he might end up over quota. (Though that is a bigger 'if' than one might think, given that Chambers appears not to have been happy about Cowen's standing in the first place.) And if the gap between Mullooly and Gildernew remains as close as it is, or closer, then Flanagan's surplus would come into play. I'm not quite sure where Chambers' transfers will go. Blaney's went slightly more to Sinn Féin than to Mullooly or Aontú, but that may reflect the fact that he's based in a border county. Flanagan's surplus came from ex-Aontú voters so that will probably help Mullooly. So I reckon Gildernew's got a bit too much ground to make up. Her real problem was that she got only a little over half of MacManus's final transfers. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 13, 2024 23:03:49 GMT
Mullooly is now leading by 4K over SF, with only FF (Lisa Chambers) transfers remaining. There's also, potentially, Flanagan's surplus, or anyone else's surplus if Chambers' transfers push them over quota (though the latter obviously would be Chambers' transfers indirectly). I believe that Flanagan's surplus is being counted along with Chambers transfers in the current, and likely final, round of counting. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 13, 2024 23:31:11 GMT
There's also, potentially, Flanagan's surplus, or anyone else's surplus if Chambers' transfers push them over quota (though the latter obviously would be Chambers' transfers indirectly). I believe that Flanagan's surplus is being counted along with Chambers transfers in the current, and likely final, round of counting. I believe Flanagan's (and subsequently others') surplus will only be counted if it could still make a difference after Chambers' transfers. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 14, 2024 0:59:25 GMT
The Irish branch of United Russia has lost its foremost representatives.  |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2024 4:50:15 GMT
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Jun 14, 2024 6:17:08 GMT
Cheered by the defeat of the two grisly apologists for Russian imperialism. Gave the left a bad name.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 14, 2024 6:20:36 GMT
Final Results:
FG - EPP - 4
FF - RE - 4
SF - Left - 2
II - ECR - 1
Lab - S&D - 1
Flanagan - Left - 1
McNamara - Unknown - 1
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 14, 2024 6:43:08 GMT
Final Results: FG - EPP - 4 FF - RE - 4 SF - Left - 2 II - ECR - 1 Lab - S&D - 1 Flanagan - Left - 1 McNamara - Unknown - 1 I don’t follow Irish politics particularly closely so can anyone explain why Sinn Fein have dropped off so much from their previous high in polls? |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 14, 2024 6:50:00 GMT
Final Results: FG - EPP - 4 FF - RE - 4 SF - Left - 2 II - ECR - 1 Lab - S&D - 1 Flanagan - Left - 1 McNamara - Unknown - 1 I don’t follow Irish politics particularly closely so can anyone explain why Sinn Fein have dropped off so much from their previous high in polls? I could be wrong, but I think that they lost much of their WC support. |
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Post by dizz on Jun 14, 2024 6:53:20 GMT
I see Sinn Fein being squeezed out of both seats just as remaining transfer (apart from their own in MNW)should not favour them Agree about Gildernew, she needs a really high transfer rate from MacManus to have a chance, but regrettably I think Funchion should be okay. Yes, I definitely overestimated the transfers from FG to Green in Southern Ireland (= much less than in South Dublin) which had them knocked-out. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 14, 2024 7:12:28 GMT
Cheered by the defeat of the two grisly apologists for Russian imperialism. Gave the left a bad name. Gave the left a good name imo, but of course opinions differ. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 14, 2024 7:58:24 GMT
Cheered by the defeat of the two grisly apologists for Russian imperialism. Gave the left a bad name. Gave the left a good name imo, but of course opinions differ. Yeah, there's the 4.6% of Irish voters who agree with you and there's the 95.4% who think they're scumbags. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 14, 2024 8:29:10 GMT
Gave the left a good name imo, but of course opinions differ. Yeah, there's the 4.6% of Irish voters who agree with you and there's the 95.4% who think they're scumbags. Cheers, I'm used to being in the 4.6%. Not belonging to the herd has never bothered me. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 14, 2024 8:42:25 GMT
Cheered by the defeat of the two grisly apologists for Russian imperialism. Gave the left a bad name. Grisly is a nice word for supporters of the bear. |
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