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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 8, 2024 12:11:33 GMT
Some analysis by Pat Leahy on the tallies so far.
"Support for Government parties appears to be down – but not disastrously so. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seem likely to lose local authority seats (now this is, it has to be stressed, based on early and incomplete tallies) but that was expected after their strong results in 2019.
There is a strong incumbent effect – where sitting councillors are more likely to hold their seats – and that helps them. Early Euro tallies suggest Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are both on course to win seats in each of the constituencies – Regina Doherty, who Fine Gael feared might struggle in Dublin, seems to be holding up.
Nor does there seem to be, contrary to many expectations, a collapse in the Green vote. Their European seats will of course be under pressure, and there are not too many people who think Grace O’Sullivan can keep hers in Ireland South, but local election tallies suggest there won’t be the sort of massacre of Green councillors that some had feared.
Sinn Féin is on course to win lots of seats. That was to be expected given how poorly the party did in 2019. But early indications – and again, they are very early – suggest its slump in opinion poll ratings in recent months is being reflected in the ballot boxes.
One interesting potential trend that appears to be arising in some areas in Dublin is that Sinn Féin may have run too many candidates, and therefore runs the risk of splitting its vote in damaging manner. There would be an irony in this – the party left seats behind at the general election by not running enough candidates.
But it selected these tickets when it was a party polling at 30-35 per cent; now it looks more like a 20-25 per cent party. And that might be on a good day"
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Post by dizz on Jun 8, 2024 15:06:50 GMT
Just referencing the above, SF ran 4 in Cabra in Mary Lou’s Dublin Central and may only get 1 of them elected
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 8, 2024 16:41:45 GMT
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 8, 2024 17:02:08 GMT
rte.ie results page is awful - no transfers, no count details, nothing. Embarassing.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 8, 2024 20:28:28 GMT
Final tally in the Limerick mayoral election (Ireland's first directly elected mayor):
J Moran (Ind) 24pc H O'Donnell (Ind) 16 D Ryan (FF) 14 D Butler (FG) 13 M Quinlivan (SF) 10 F Daly (Ind) 6 B Leddin (Grn) 3 E O'Donovan (SD) 3 S Beasley (Aon) 3 C Sheehan (Lab) 3
Counting begins on Monday.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 8, 2024 23:06:44 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 9, 2024 3:39:20 GMT
Looks like dumping socially/culturally conservative voters a couple of years ago was rather shortsighted….
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Post by therealriga on Jun 9, 2024 9:45:59 GMT
rte.ie results page is awful - no transfers, no count details, nothing. Embarassing. Not only limited to them either. The Leitrim count finished last night, yet I can't find the full result on any of the local media or on the council webpage.
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Post by redwombat on Jun 9, 2024 11:08:01 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 9, 2024 12:57:56 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 9, 2024 13:17:59 GMT
Sounds like the Shinners are struggling to even win a single seat...
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Post by stb12 on Jun 9, 2024 13:26:09 GMT
Did Sinn Fein possibly become complacent after comfortably leading the polls for so long?
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Post by rcronald on Jun 9, 2024 13:36:44 GMT
Did Sinn Fein possibly become complacent after comfortably leading the polls for so long? I’m definitely not an expert in Irish politics, but I suspect that they thought that they could have their cake and eat it too with culturally/socially conservative voters over the last decade, and now they are losing them to populist independents.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,518
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 9, 2024 16:21:57 GMT
Did Sinn Fein possibly become complacent after comfortably leading the polls for so long? I’m definitely not an expert in Irish politics, but I suspect that they thought that they could have their cake and it too with culturally/socially conservative voters over the last decade, and now they are losing them to populist independents. Was today reminded, that IreLand is - together with Malta - the only country without a right xenophobic party.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 9, 2024 16:40:59 GMT
I’m definitely not an expert in Irish politics, but I suspect that they thought that they could have their cake and it too with culturally/socially conservative voters over the last decade, and now they are losing them to populist independents. Was today reminded, that IreLand is - together with Malta - the only country without a right xenophobic party. At least Malta has a (relatively) socially conservative Party (unless PN radically changed), Ireland doesn’t even have that.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,651
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 9, 2024 17:37:50 GMT
Hi all, not been posting as I have been, between my responsibilities, following the local and EP elections in Ireland. In the Local Elections, dreadful results for Sinn Fein, encouraging for FG, not too bad for FF, surprisingly ok for Labour, yet to see for the Greens outside Dublin, very good for Independents, Aontu showing gains, Sol-PBP yet to see from later transfers, quiet yet for SD. The Independents connected to TDs are doing well - the Lowrys in Tipperary, the Healey-Raes in Kerry and the Verona Murphy lot in Wexford. Also, the Independent Ireland Party across the country are doing well. Single issue candidates doing well in Donegal on the Mica issue. Fascinating.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 9, 2024 17:45:00 GMT
Hi all, not been posting as I have been, between my responsibilities, following the local and EP elections in Ireland. In the Local Elections, dreadful results for Sinn Fein, encouraging for FG, not too bad for FF, surprisingly ok for Labour, yet to see for the Greens outside Dublin, very good for Independents, Aontu showing gains, Sol-PBP yet to see from later transfers, quiet yet for SD. The Independents connected to TDs are doing well - the Lowrys in Tipperary, the Healey-Raes in Kerry and the Veron Murphy lot in Wexford. Also, the Independent Ireland Party across the country are doing well. Single issue candidates doing well in Donegal on the Mica issue. Fascinating. Thank you for the update!
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Post by rcronald on Jun 9, 2024 17:47:59 GMT
Hi all, not been posting as I have been, between my responsibilities, following the local and EP elections in Ireland. In the Local Elections, dreadful results for Sinn Fein, encouraging for FG, not too bad for FF, surprisingly ok for Labour, yet to see for the Greens outside Dublin, very good for Independents, Aontu showing gains, Sol-PBP yet to see from later transfers, quiet yet for SD. The Independents connected to TDs are doing well - the Lowrys in Tipperary, the Healey-Raes in Kerry and the Veron Murphy lot in Wexford. Also, the Independent Ireland Party across the country are doing well. Single issue candidates doing well in Donegal on the Mica issue. Fascinating. There’s clearly a gap for a populist/collectivist (as in not economically conservative but not strongly socialist)/culturally conservative party in Ireland, why is no one filling it? Edit: I understand that Independent Ireland is trying to fill that gap, but they aren’t even offered as an option in polling.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,651
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 9, 2024 17:58:55 GMT
Not sure yet about the European elections as tallying is a nightmare for these elections. Looks like Luke Flanagan is safe in Midlands North West, former broadcaster Ciaran Mullooly looks strong for the Independent Ireland Party there and FG's Maria Walsh looks to be safe holding on. In Ireland South, incumbent MEPS FG's Sean Kelly and FF's Billy Kelleher look safe. Dublin looks hilarious, though FF's Barry Andrews should be ok.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,651
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 9, 2024 18:05:39 GMT
Hi all, not been posting as I have been, between my responsibilities, following the local and EP elections in Ireland. In the Local Elections, dreadful results for Sinn Fein, encouraging for FG, not too bad for FF, surprisingly ok for Labour, yet to see for the Greens outside Dublin, very good for Independents, Aontu showing gains, Sol-PBP yet to see from later transfers, quiet yet for SD. The Independents connected to TDs are doing well - the Lowrys in Tipperary, the Healey-Raes in Kerry and the Veron Murphy lot in Wexford. Also, the Independent Ireland Party across the country are doing well. Single issue candidates doing well in Donegal on the Mica issue. Fascinating. There’s clearly a gap for a populist/collectivist (as in not economically conservative but not strongly socialist)/culturally conservative party in Ireland, why is no one filling it? Edit: I understand that Independent Ireland is trying to fill that gap, but they aren’t even offered as an option in polling. Aontu fit the socially conservative/economically left-of-centre description, which is why there was some bafflement as to why Independent Ireland was formed - but the latter does not whip on political views, and it has now taken a more clearly right-wing position, which, given II TD Michael Fitzmaurice was originally elected as the endorsed replacement of left-winger, Ming Flanagan, shows the baffling structure of Irish politics.
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