WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 31, 2018 15:02:54 GMT
Went to a wedding today in Enköping, a small town, half an hour west of Uppsala. Tons of C posters going through the countryside. In Enköping itself there were lots more noticeable posters for all parties. Slightly fewer SD posters and a lot more M posters than in Uppsala. Incidentally, just seen this poll of students from Lund University lundagard.se/2018/08/31/sa-rostar-lunds-studenter/29463 students asked, 3217 replied (11%). S 10% V 21% MP 8% FI 5% SD 13% C 14% M 19% L 7% KD 3% Lööf (C) and Sjöstedt (V) were tied for first place as favourite party leader. Followed by Kristersson (M) and Åkersson (SD). Environment and climate were top of the list for concerns, followed by Integration, Immigration and Health. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2018 3:33:37 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 1, 2018 5:38:16 GMT
Mamma Mia. Here we go again. |
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Post by Antiochian on Sept 3, 2018 10:10:57 GMT
Latest polling - Coalition negotiations look like they will be pretty hellacious: skop.se/main/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SKOPs-Valjarbarometer-31-augusti-2018.pdfWill be interesting to see whether the "smoothing" by the pollsters has hidden an even bigger vote for the SD. They are holding firm at 20% but if its really 23% they would come out as the largest party. Even with just the 20% for the SD the number of seats lost by the Social Democrats and Moderates will be hefty indeed. |
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Post by Antiochian on Sept 3, 2018 11:13:21 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2018 19:21:48 GMT
How bizarrely critical of Aakesson's critical comments on Putin! Macron probably fears that if Sweden's model comes under pressure, France's similar model of dumping immigrants in peripheral concrete dumps and then being surprised that they do their own thing will come under pressure. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 3, 2018 23:14:47 GMT
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 4, 2018 10:15:26 GMT
Looking at the stats it comes as no surprise they're Angered. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 5, 2018 14:47:00 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 5, 2018 15:03:38 GMT
If we assume that the Media, Authorities and Intelligentsia are uniformly 'Old-Sweden' lefty with built-in anti-SD bias, might the poll model be slewed and the results be massaged to produce the 'Correct Result' so as to stall any potential bandwagon effect? |
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Post by Antiochian on Sept 5, 2018 15:57:02 GMT
If we assume that the Media, Authorities and Intelligentsia are uniformly 'Old-Sweden' lefty with built-in anti-SD bias, might the poll model be slewed and the results be massaged to produce the 'Correct Result' so as to stall any potential bandwagon effect? Recent history has shown that Elites bthat try that usally get crushed by the bandwagon.. and deservedly so... Watch out for the "Shy SD voter" phenomenon. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2018 16:14:07 GMT
Data courtesy of Europe Elects:
55 years +
S-S&D: 29%
SD-ECR: 26%
M-EPP: 18% (+3)
C-ALDE: 3% (-6)
V-LEFT: 8%
L-ALDE: 5%
KD-EPP: 5% (+1)
MP-G/EFA: 2% (-1)
Fi-S&D: 0% (-1)
35-54
S-S&D: 26% (+6)
SD-ECR: 25%
M-EPP: 16% (-3)
V-LEFT: 8% (-1)
C-ALDE: 6%
L-ALDE: 5% (-1)
MP-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
KD-EPP: 3%
Fi-S&D: 1%
18-34
SD-ECR: 22%
S-S&D: 14% (-3)
M-EPP: 15% (+2)
V-LEFT: 12% (+1)
L-ALDE: 9% (+3)
C-ALDE: 9%
KD-EPP: 7% (+1)
MP-G/EFA: 5% (-2)
Fi-S&D: 1% (-4)
Unlike most of Europe, the older voters are sensibly rejecting nutcase nationalism, and my generation have completely lost the plot.
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Sept 6, 2018 16:29:59 GMT
Data courtesy of Europe Elects: 55 years + S-S&D: 29% SD-ECR: 26% M-EPP: 18% (+3) C-ALDE: 3% (-6) V-LEFT: 8% L-ALDE: 5% KD-EPP: 5% (+1) MP-G/EFA: 2% (-1) Fi-S&D: 0% (-1) 35-54 S-S&D: 26% (+6) SD-ECR: 25% M-EPP: 16% (-3) V-LEFT: 8% (-1) C-ALDE: 6% L-ALDE: 5% (-1) MP-G/EFA: 4% (-2) KD-EPP: 3% Fi-S&D: 1% 18-34 SD-ECR: 22% S-S&D: 14% (-3) M-EPP: 15% (+2) V-LEFT: 12% (+1) L-ALDE: 9% (+3) C-ALDE: 9% KD-EPP: 7% (+1) MP-G/EFA: 5% (-2) Fi-S&D: 1% (-4) Unlike most of Europe, the older voters are sensibly rejecting nutcase nationalism, and my generation have completely lost the plot.If by 'nutcase nationalism' you mean the SD, then the poll seems to contradict what you're saying: the proportion of 55+ voters prepared to vote for them is higher than it is for those in the other two age brackets. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2018 16:49:19 GMT
Data courtesy of Europe Elects: 55 years + S-S&D: 29% SD-ECR: 26% M-EPP: 18% (+3) C-ALDE: 3% (-6) V-LEFT: 8% L-ALDE: 5% KD-EPP: 5% (+1) MP-G/EFA: 2% (-1) Fi-S&D: 0% (-1) 35-54 S-S&D: 26% (+6) SD-ECR: 25% M-EPP: 16% (-3) V-LEFT: 8% (-1) C-ALDE: 6% L-ALDE: 5% (-1) MP-G/EFA: 4% (-2) KD-EPP: 3% Fi-S&D: 1% 18-34 SD-ECR: 22% S-S&D: 14% (-3) M-EPP: 15% (+2) V-LEFT: 12% (+1) L-ALDE: 9% (+3) C-ALDE: 9% KD-EPP: 7% (+1) MP-G/EFA: 5% (-2) Fi-S&D: 1% (-4) Unlike most of Europe, the older voters are sensibly rejecting nutcase nationalism, and my generation have completely lost the plot.If by 'nutcase nationalism' you mean the SD, then the poll seems to contradict what you're saying: the proportion of 55+ voters prepared to vote for them is higher than it is for those in the other two age brackets. Yet the Social Democrats are still leading among the older age groups and trailing badly among young people. |
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Sept 6, 2018 17:10:40 GMT
If by 'nutcase nationalism' you mean the SD, then the poll seems to contradict what you're saying: the proportion of 55+ voters prepared to vote for them is higher than it is for those in the other two age brackets. Yet the Social Democrats are still leading among the older age groups and trailing badly among young people. Support for the SAP is indeed lower amongst the 18-34 age group, but support for minor parties such as the Left Party, Liberals and Greens is higher. None of these parties are noted for the kind of nativist agenda that one would associate with SD. Besides, the decline in support for the SAP is probably at least partly due to the troubles afflicting social democratic parties throughout Europe, rather than an explicit rejection of the party's anti-nationalist, pro-immigrant stance. Overall, the numbers who are unwilling to plump for SD - which seems to me the best way of gauging whether or not voters are rejecting 'nutcase nationalism' - hardly varies at all between the three age groups, at least if this poll is any guide. There certainly isn't enough difference to applaud one group of voters as sensible and condemn another for 'losing the plot'. |
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Post by willlucky on Sept 6, 2018 17:17:35 GMT
Support for the SAP is indeed lower amongst the 18-34 age group, but support for minor parties such as the Left Party, Liberals and Greens is higher. None of these parties are noted for the kind of nativist agenda that one would associate with SD. Besides, the decline in support for the SAP is probably at least partly due to the troubles afflicting social democratic parties throughout Europe, rather than an explicit rejection of the party's anti-nationalist, pro-immigrant stance. Overall, the numbers who are unwilling to plump for SD - which seems to me the best way of gauging whether or not voters are rejecting 'nutcase nationalism' - hardly varies at all between the three age groups, at least if this poll is any guide. There certainly isn't enough difference to applaud one group of voters as sensible and condemn another for 'losing the plot'. Indeed, the two main parties if you will can get 40%-50% with the older voters combined. But can't even get over 30% with the younger voters. They're opting increasingly for the smaller parties here if this is accurate. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 6, 2018 17:35:03 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 6, 2018 18:04:08 GMT
Oh, the NY Times' coverage of all countries outside North America is always like this. Hysterical gibberish designed to make its tediously parochial readership feel assured that they still live in the centre of all worthwhile civilisation. If they can get this sort of content provided to them by people from outside North America (not that hard given that there are many very gloomy people out there), then all the better.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 6, 2018 18:21:25 GMT
General summary of the polling situation...
SAP - between 22.1% and 26.5%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
M - between 16.3% and 18.2%, with most polls showing about 17%.
SD - between 16.8% and 24.8%, with some very marked disagreements between polling firms. Most polls show high teens.
M - between 3.6% and 6.2%, with most polls showing around 5%.
C - between 6.0% and 9.6%, with most polls showing around 8%.
V - between 9.4% and 11.1%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
L - between 4.9% and 6.8%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
KD - between 4.8% and 7.0%, with most polls showing around 6%.
Almost all polls have shown an SAP lead (some quite large), and the exceptions have been within the MoE.
As for the two main party blocs:
Left - between 37.2% and 42.2%.
Bourgeois - between 34.4% and 39.9%.
All polls this month have had a Left lead, though sometimes within the MoE.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 6, 2018 18:46:54 GMT
If by 'nutcase nationalism' you mean the SD, then the poll seems to contradict what you're saying: the proportion of 55+ voters prepared to vote for them is higher than it is for those in the other two age brackets. Yet the Social Democrats are still leading among the older age groups and trailing badly among young people. It's the same story in Germany. The two main parties are far stronger with the older age groups. And Italy. |
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